MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, May 27th
These are the six best home run props for today, May 27, 2025:
- Cody Bellinger (+500)
- Ozzie Albies (+680)
- Austin Riley (+390)
- Nick Castellanos (+630)
- Bryce Harper (+400)
- Oneil Cruz (+520)
Keep reading for more details about Tuesday’s MLB home run prop bets.
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Home Runs Odds
MLB Home Run Picks for May 27, 2025
Cody Bellinger (+500 | bet365) vs. Los Angeles Angels (SP: Tyler Anderson)
Updated on 5/28/25
After only belting two home runs in April, Bellinger showed up in a big way in May, going yard five times… so far. Bellinger has had great success in his career against Tyler Anderson, hitting two home runs in 24 career plate appearances.
Bellinger has obliterated fastballs, generating nearly a 40% hard hit rate on 4-seams this season. He has also hit lefties well this year, tallying a .405 average with two home runs in 44 plate appearances. The slight wind out will also play into Bellinger’s favor.
Ozzie Albies (+680 | FD) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (SP: Ranger Suárez)
This is a very favorable matchup for Albies. In his career against Suárez, Albies has hit three home runs in 24 plate appearances. Although Albies is having a down year by his standards, he is boasting his highest pulled fly ball rate of his career, indicating some positive power regression may be due.
There will be a slight wind blowing out for this game, which will benefit all batters involved.
Austin Riley (+390 | FD) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (SP: Ranger Suárez)
Austin Riley has logged 29 plate appearances against Suárez, totalling eight hits and 2 home runs. Riley has top-tier batted ball stats, including top 80th-or-better-percentile exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. When Riley gets hold of it, it goes a long way.
Ranger primarily throws his changeup rather than a fastball. Riley is batting .300 against the changeup and has tallied 2 home runs in 48 plate appearances against southpaws. Expect Riley to go yard today.
Nick Castellanos (+630 | FD) vs. Atlanta Braves (SP: Spencer Strider)
There is no doubt that Nick Castellanos is at his best when he is seeing a lot of fastballs. It is by far his greatest run value by pitch. Nick may be in luck with this pitching matchup against a struggling Spencer Strider.
We saw a gradual decrease in fastball usage from 2021 to 2024 by Strider. However, in a small sample size since his return from injury, we have seen him rely much less on the slider and more on the fastball. A slumping batter like Castellanos can benefit from seeing more fastballs, and what better way to break a slump than to go yard?
Bryce Harper (+400 | FD) vs. Atlanta Braves (SP: Spencer Strider)
Harper has had a surprisingly quiet year compared to years past, but a lot of his statistics are still top-tier. With xSLG/xBA/xwOBA all above the 80th percentile, Harper has the underlying stats that should represent an MVP season, but the results have yet to manifest to the degree we expect to see from Harper.
We know that Harper is a fastball masher, and with Strider throwing more and more fastballs as he gets acclimated to life post-UCL injury, I do not expect to see that change anytime soon. The slight breeze out to center today will create an environment conducive to the long ball, an environment that Harper will take advantage of.
Oneil Cruz (+520 | FD) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (SP: Corbin Burnes)
This guy knows how to hit a baseball. What he lacks in plate discipline ,he makes up for in raw power. He is in the 100th percentile for exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. He has 11 home runs on the year, and pitchers still think they can overpower Cruz. He sees over 40% fastballs, a pitch against which he bats nearly .300. Want to throw him breaking stuff? While he may only bat .156, he has still tallied four home runs against breaking pitches.
Burnes will provide a tall test for Cruz, but in Oneil’s history against Burnes, he has gone 2-8 with two home runs.
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