Rays vs Guardians Prediction | Props & HR Picks for TB vs CLE (Game 4)

Zach Parkes Sports Betting Expert

22 minute read

The Polymarket promo code (INSIDER) is perfect to use on this ALCS Game 4 showdown, and this Rays vs Guardians prediction rounds up our best MLB player props today straight from the live Polymarket board.

• The Rays arrive at 1-2 in the ALCS after dropping Game 3 in Cleveland, and they need Nick Martinez to steady a rotation that has leaned hard on its bullpen through three games.
• The Guardians sit at 2-1 and have a chance to push the series to the brink at home, turning to Tyler Armstrong, who hasn't allowed an earned run across his outings this series.

Here is our full picks table before we break down every best MLB player props today pick and home run predictions today pick for Rays vs Guardians, built around the best prediction markets on the board right now.

Best MLB Player Props Today for Rays vs Guardians Prediction

Every pick below is a real trade we'd make using the best prediction market apps, part of our full Rays vs Guardians prediction for this ALCS Game 4 matchup.

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Best Hits Prop Today - Jonathan Aranda 1+ Hits

Jonathan Aranda (TB) has been one of Tampa Bay's steadiest contact bats all postseason, and a single hit is a low bar for a player running a strong on-base rate against right-handed pitching.

Cleveland starter Tyler Armstrong is unproven at this level, and a lineup that's hit at a high clip over the last ten games should find enough contact against him to get Aranda on base.

At a $100 buy near 58¢, this trade works out to roughly 172 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $167.51 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $167.51.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 1.7x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Best Hits + Runs + RBIs Prop Today - Chase DeLauter 2+

Chase DeLauter (CLE) has settled into a key spot in Cleveland's lineup, and multiple combined hits, runs, and RBIs is an achievable number for a player seeing everyday at-bats at home.

Nick Martinez carries a 4.91 ERA across his outings this series, and a Guardians offense playing in front of its own crowd should have chances to put DeLauter in scoring position.

At a $100 buy near 47¢, this trade works out to roughly 213 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $205.21 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $205.21.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 2.1x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Best Strikeouts Prop Today - Nick Martinez 3+ Strikeouts

Nick Martinez (TB) has racked up swing-and-miss outings all October, and three strikeouts is a modest total for a starter who's shown he can miss bats even on a short outing.

Cleveland's lineup has chased pitches in soft spots all series, and Martinez should get enough length tonight to clear this number if he's seeing hitters a second time through the order.

At a $100 buy near 46¢, this trade works out to roughly 217 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $209.52 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $209.52.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 2.1x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Best Total Bases Prop Today - Yandy Díaz 2+ Total Bases

Yandy Díaz (TB) remains Tampa Bay's most consistent line-drive hitter, and multiple total bases is a realistic ceiling against a Guardians starter still finding his footing on this stage.

Díaz has shown he can turn a single into extra bases against pitchers who leave the ball up, and Armstrong's inexperience in this spot works in his favor.

At a $100 buy near 40¢, this trade works out to roughly 250 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $240.00 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $240.00.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 2.4x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Best RBIs Prop Today - Yandy Díaz 1+ RBIs

Díaz hitting in the middle of Tampa Bay's order gives him regular chances to drive in a run even on a single off a seeing-eye hit.

With the Rays needing to answer after dropping Game 3, expect their best hitters to see plenty of opportunities with runners on tonight.

At a $100 buy near 26¢, this trade works out to roughly 385 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $365.80 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $365.80.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 3.7x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Best Home Run Prop Today - Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero (TB) has been Tampa Bay's biggest home run threat all season, and the market gives him the shortest price on the board for going deep tonight.

A Guardians starter making his first real test on this stage is exactly the kind of matchup that plays into a true power bat's hands.

At a $100 buy near 14¢, this trade works out to roughly 714 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $674.00 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $674.00.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 6.7x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Best Home Run Bets Today - Jo Adell

Jo Adell (TB) has shown real raw power out of Tampa Bay's lineup all October, and this price reflects a legitimate home run threat rather than a throwaway long shot.

Adell doesn't need to square one up perfectly to clear the wall at Progressive Field, which keeps him squarely in our home run predictions today for this game.

At a $100 buy near 13¢, this trade works out to roughly 769 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $725.38 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $725.38.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 7.3x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Best Home Run Prop Today - Jonny DeLuca

Jonny DeLuca (TB) is the deepest longshot of our editor's picks tonight, with pop that shows up in flashes rather than every game.

If Tampa Bay's lineup gets into Cleveland's bullpen early, DeLuca is the kind of complementary bat who could sneak one out late.

At a $100 buy near 7.09¢, this trade works out to roughly 1,411 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Polymarket's stated $1,324.20 payout reflects normal order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If this pick hits: profit of $1,324.20.
• If it doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That's a payout multiple of roughly 13.2x on this trade, part of our broader Rays vs Guardians prediction for tonight's board.

Rays vs Guardians Moneyline, Spread & Total

Before the prop boards, here's where this Rays vs Guardians prediction stands on the base game lines for Game 4.

Home Run Predictions Today: Rays vs Guardians

Our full home run predictions today for this game cover every hitter Polymarket has priced, tagged by team since this board mixes both rosters, sorted from the safest price down to the deepest long shot.

• Junior Caminero (TB) (1+ HR: Yes 14%): the clearest power threat on either roster tonight.
• Jo Adell (TB) (1+ HR: Yes 13%): real raw power even against a shorter sample of pitches seen.
• José Ramírez (CLE) (1+ HR: Yes 13%): Cleveland's middle-of-the-order anchor.
• Chase DeLauter (CLE) (1+ HR: Yes 11%): pull-side pop that plays at home.
• Jonathan Aranda (TB) (1+ HR: Yes 11%): more of a contact bat, but not without occasional thunder.
• Nathaniel Lowe (TB) (1+ HR: Yes 10%): a complementary power bat in Tampa Bay's order.
• Yandy Díaz (TB) (1+ HR: Yes 9%): more line drives than lift, but capable of one leaving the yard.
• Travis Bazzana (CLE) (1+ HR: Yes 8%): a rookie with growing pop in Cleveland's lineup.
• Jonny DeLuca (TB) (1+ HR: Yes 7%): a complementary bat who can sneak one out.
• Steven Kwan (CLE) (1+ HR: Yes 4%): a contact-first table-setter, a true long shot here.
• Chandler Simpson (TB) (1+ HR: Yes 2%): speed over power, the longest shot on the board.

Hits Props for TB vs CLE

Our best MLB player props today for pure contact cover every hitter's odds to record at least one hit.

• Chandler Simpson (TB) (1+ Hits: Yes 68%): the safest number on this entire board.
• Yandy Díaz (TB) (1+ Hits: Yes 67%): a reliable bat-to-ball profile near the top of the order.
• Steven Kwan (CLE) (1+ Hits: Yes 66%): Cleveland's leadoff table-setter.
• Chase DeLauter (CLE) (1+ Hits: Yes 65%): an everyday bat getting regular at-bats at home.
• José Ramírez (CLE) (1+ Hits: Yes 64%): Cleveland's most dangerous all-around hitter.
• Junior Caminero (TB) (1+ Hits: Yes 64%): makes enough contact to pair with his power.
• Jo Adell (TB) (1+ Hits: Yes 59%): a solid floor for a power-first bat.
• Jonathan Aranda (TB) (1+ Hits: Yes 58%): our Editor's Pick for this category tonight.
• Jonny DeLuca (TB) (1+ Hits: Yes 58%): a complementary bat with a fair floor.
• Nathaniel Lowe (TB) (1+ Hits: Yes 58%): steady, if unspectacular, contact numbers.
• Travis Bazzana (CLE) (1+ Hits: Yes 57%): the rookie's floor as an everyday starter.

Total Bases Props for Rays vs Guardians

• Junior Caminero (TB) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 41%): the top power threat on this board.
• Yandy Díaz (TB) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 40%): our Editor's Pick for this category.
• Chase DeLauter (CLE) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 38%): gap power that plays at home.
• Steven Kwan (CLE) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 37%): enough doubles pop to clear this number.
• José Ramírez (CLE) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 37%): a threat to extend any single into more.
• Chandler Simpson (TB) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 37%): speed that can turn a hit into extra bases.
• Jo Adell (TB) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 35%): one swing away from clearing this easily.
• Nathaniel Lowe (TB) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 35%): a fair number for a middle-of-the-order bat.
• Jonathan Aranda (TB) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 34%): more of a hit-first profile.
• Travis Bazzana (CLE) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 32%): still growing into his power as a rookie.
• Jonny DeLuca (TB) (2+ Total Bases: Yes 32%): a long shot for extra bases tonight.

Hits + Runs + RBIs Props Today

This combined board mixes a couple of different thresholds depending on how each player is priced, so check the number next to each name.

• Yandy Díaz (TB) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 51%): the safest multi-stat number on the board.
• Chandler Simpson (TB) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 50%): a near coin flip for Tampa Bay's table-setter.
• Junior Caminero (TB) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 48%): his power alone can clear this with one swing.
• Steven Kwan (CLE) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 48%): plenty of ways to rack up the combined stat line.
• José Ramírez (CLE) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 47%): Cleveland's best bet to hit this combined number.
• Chase DeLauter (CLE) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 47%): our Editor's Pick for this category.
• Jo Adell (TB) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 45%): power alone keeps him live for this number.
• Jonathan Aranda (TB) (2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 44%): a touch tougher number for a hit-first bat.
• Nathaniel Lowe (TB) (1+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 64%): a lower bar, priced accordingly.
• Jonny DeLuca (TB) (1+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 63%): an easier number for a complementary bat.
• Travis Bazzana (CLE) (1+ Hits + Runs + RBIs: Yes 62%): a reasonable floor for the rookie.

RBI Props for Rays vs Guardians

• Jo Adell (TB) (1+ RBIs: Yes 32%): the top power bat for driving in a run tonight.
• Chase DeLauter (CLE) (1+ RBIs: Yes 30%): regular chances hitting in Cleveland's middle of the order.
• Chandler Simpson (TB) (1+ RBIs: Yes 30%): more opportunities than raw power suggests.
• Junior Caminero (TB) (1+ RBIs: Yes 30%): one swing can clear this easily.
• Jonny DeLuca (TB) (1+ RBIs: Yes 27%): a complementary bat with occasional pop.
• José Ramírez (CLE) (1+ RBIs: Yes 27%): Cleveland's most dangerous hitter with runners on.
• Nathaniel Lowe (TB) (1+ RBIs: Yes 26%): steady run production from the middle of the order.
• Yandy Díaz (TB) (1+ RBIs: Yes 26%): our Editor's Pick for this category.
• Jonathan Aranda (TB) (1+ RBIs: Yes 25%): more of a table-setter than a run producer.
• Travis Bazzana (CLE) (1+ RBIs: Yes 25%): still adjusting to a middle-of-the-order role.
• Steven Kwan (CLE) (1+ RBIs: Yes 25%): a leadoff bat with fewer chances to drive in runs.

Nick Martinez Strikeout Props

• Nick Martinez (3+ Strikeouts: Yes 46%): our Editor's Pick, a modest number for a starter who's missed bats all October.

Nick Martinez Outs Recorded Props

• Nick Martinez (12+ Outs Recorded: Yes 55%): a fair bar for length if he settles in early.

Nick Martinez Earned Runs Allowed Props

• Nick Martinez (2+ Earned Runs Allowed: Yes 43%): a near coin flip against a Guardians lineup that's hit well lately.

Nick Martinez Hits Allowed Props

• Nick Martinez (4+ Hits Allowed: Yes 49%): essentially even money given his 4.91 ERA across his outings this series.

What's Moving the Market

Prediction markets and prices can move for several reasons, and tonight's board is no different. Most of Tampa Bay's home run predictions today ticked down a handful of points as the lineups and probable starters firmed up.

Tyler Armstrong's spotless ERA across his outings this series appears to be a factor in that shift, with the market giving him more credit than his limited track record alone might suggest for Rays vs Guardians prediction purposes.

On the other side, the run line moved toward Cleveland, with TB -1.5 slipping to 36% as the market leans toward a tighter game between these two clubs than a full run and a half.

That mix of a shorter home run board for TB vs CLE hitters and a tighter spread is consistent with a series that's been tightly contested through three games.

How to Trade This Rays vs Guardians Prediction on Polymarket

Ready to get in on these best MLB player props today yourself? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading tonight's board:

• Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
• When you're ready, sign up with Polymarket promo code INSIDER to get started!

Updated on 10/16/26

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📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Final Thoughts: Best Home Run Bets Today for TB vs CLE

Tonight's board leans on Tampa Bay's top power bats and a handful of safer contact numbers, but Cleveland's home crowd and a 2-1 series lead make this a genuine coin-flip night at Progressive Field.

Junior Caminero and Jo Adell headline our best home run bets today, while Jonathan Aranda and Nick Martinez give us a safer floor to build around.

That wraps our full Rays vs Guardians prediction and every best MLB player props today pick we'd make on the Polymarket board for Game 4.

Rays vs Guardians Prediction FAQs

Who wins the Rays vs Guardians prediction for Game 4?

The Polymarket board has this one essentially even at 50% apiece, with Cleveland holding a 2-1 series lead heading into Friday's game at Progressive Field.

What are the best MLB player props today for this game?

Our top plays lean on Jonathan Aranda's hits floor, Chase DeLauter's combined hits, runs, and RBIs number, and Nick Martinez's strikeout prop.

What are the best home run predictions today for Rays vs Guardians?

Junior Caminero and Jo Adell sit atop our home run predictions today, with Jonny DeLuca as the deepest long shot on the board.

What is the best home run bet today for TB vs CLE?

Junior Caminero's price makes him our top home run bet today, with the shortest implied odds of any hitter on either roster.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code for this Rays vs Guardians prediction?

Create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and enter the code to unlock a trading bonus before first pitch.

Who is starting on the mound for Game 4?

Nick Martinez takes the ball for Tampa Bay, while Tyler Armstrong starts for Cleveland at Progressive Field.

Are there more MLB prediction markets to trade today?

Yes. Beyond these player props, Polymarket has moneyline, spread, and total markets live for Game 4, plus markets across the rest of the ALCS.

Zach Parkes

Zach Parkes is a Toronto-based casino enthusiast and an avid sports fan. As an SEO Content Analyst in the Casino division of Better Collective, he provides expertise in the rapidly growing North American online casino market. More from Zach Parkes