Ballpark Figures – Week 15

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

National League Parody
In the American League, there are three teams with a run differential of +116 or greater, including the defending champion Houston Astros with a mark of +188. There are also three teams with a run differential of -125 or more. In the National League, there isn't as much of a stark difference between the top and bottom teams.

There is just one team, the Chicago Cubs, with a run differential in positive triple digits (+105). There is also just one team with a run differential in negative triple digits, the Miami Marlins (-118). While there are some poor teams to fade, it's much tougher to pick your spots in the NL than it is in the AL. Even the last-place Reds are 39-51 (.433) overall, but they have a reasonable run differential of minus-34 and they have been great kryptonite to the aforementioned Cubs. In fact, the Reds have the second-most runs scored in the NL Central, and they're tied for fifth in the NL in runs. The only team to fade on a regular basis might be the Marlins, although a 19-26 mark at home and 18-29 mark on the road isn't really all that bad. And they're 5-5 over their past 10 outings, so...look at the AL. Baltimore (.270), Kansas City (.281) and the Chicago White Sox (.333) all have winning percentages lower than any club in the NL.

Looking Ahead

Monday, July 9
The two MLB teams from the Buckeye State square off in Cleveland on Monday, as the Reds and Indians meet. Anthony DeSclafani and Mike Clevinger will be the combatants. The Reds have dominated the American League Central over their past eight tries, going 7-1. They're also a respectable 14-6 over the past 20 outings, while also managing a 7-1 record over the past eight interleague outings. However, they're 1-4 in DeSclafani's past five starts in the first game of a new series, and they're 0-4 in their past four DeSclafani starts against the AL Central. The Indians have posted a 4-1 mark across the past five against right-handed starting pitchers, and they're 6-2 in the past eight against the NL Central. Cleveland has won 47 of their past 66 home games, while they're 7-1 in Clevinger's past eight home starts against teams with a losing overall record. They're also 10-4 in his past 14 home starts overall. The Reds haven't fared very well when travelling up Interstate 71 to Cleveland, going 5-16 over the past 21 meetings at Progressive Field, and 2-8 in the past 10 meetings overall.

A have and a have-not square off at Camden Yards in Baltimore, as the Yankees and Orioles will do battle in a doubleheader. In Game 2 it's a pitching matchup featuring Luis Cessa and Yefry Ramirez, so on the surface this feels like an 'over' wager. The Yankees are 1-8 in the second game of a doubleheader, and 2-5 in their past seven road outings against a right-handed starting pitcher. They're also just 3-8 in Cessa's past 11 starts, and 1-5 in his past six on the road. Baltimore is an impressive 11-1 over their past 12 second games of a doubleheader, but just 2-11 in the past 13 at home vs. RHP. Getting back to that total talk...the 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Charm City, and 24-4 in the past 28 meetings overall.

In late-night action, there are more divisional battles. The Dodgers visit the Padres, and they're 14-5 in the past 19 road outings. They're also 42-19 in the past 61 road starts by Clayton Kershaw, while going 16-5 in the past 21 games vs. RHP. The Padres are 5-15 in their past 20 overall, and 5-17 in their past 22 vs. LHP. They're also 1-6 in Luis Perdomo's past seven outings. L.A. is 5-0 in the past five road starts by Kershaw in San Diego, and 20-6 in the past 26 meetings overall when Kershaw is on the hill.

In Houston, the A's and Astros square off. The A's are 6-1 in the past seven road games, and 9-2 in their past 11 vs. RHP. Oakland is also 16-5 in the past 21 overall. While they're 5-2 in Frankie Montas' past seven starts, the Astros are even more impressive with Gerrit Cole. They're 15-2 in Cole's past 17 starts on grass, 5-0 in his past five at home and 6-0 in his past six vs. AL West foes.

Weather Report
The Phillies and Mets square off at Citi Field, and while there is no chance of precipitation, wind will be an issue. The wind will be blowing fiercely from 13-15 mph from home plate to the left-center field power alley. The same holds true for the Rangers-Red Sox battle in Boston, with the wind gusting from 12-15 mph straight at the Green Monster. Other than that, weather and wind will not be an issue across the MLB.

Tuesday, July 10
The Diamondbacks and Rockies will renew acquaintances on Tuesday at Coors Field. Arizona has ticked off wins in seven of their past eight road outings, while going 7-2 in the past nine road outings against teams with a losing home record. However, they're just 2-5 in the past seven against the NL West, and 6-20 in their past 26 against teams with a winning record. They're also just 1-4 in their past five with LHP Patrick Corbin on the hill against teams with a winning overall record, and 3-9 in his past 12 road outings against a team with a winning record. Colorado has won five of the past six overall, four of their past five vs. LHP and 6-1 in their past seven vs. NL West opponents. The Rox have also won seven of their past nine at Coors. Arizona has dominated this series of late, especially with Corbin on the bump. Arizona has won eight straght meetings at Coors Field, and 13 of the past 16 meetings overall. They're also 13-3 in the past 16 starts by Corbin against Colorado, including 5-2 in Corbin's past seven starts in Denver.

The Mariners and Angels will kick off a series on Tuesday in Anaheim. Seattle is on a tear, winning four in a row on the road and five of their past six against AL West opponents. And, for what it's worth, they're 9-2 in their past 11 appearances on Tuesday. More importantly, they're 6-0 in Mike Leake's past six road outings, and 9-2 in his past 11 outings overall. The Halos have won just once in the past five inside the division, but they're 9-4 in the past 13 at home while also going 9-4 in the past 13 at home vs. RHP. Seattle has won five of the past six meetings overall, and the 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings overall. The 'over' is also 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in SoCal.

Weather Report
In Queens, the wind will be blowing out from home plate to straightaway center field at 10-13 mph. In Cleveland, it will be the exact opposite, as winds will aid the pitchers. A wind of 12-15 mph will be blowing straight into the face of the batters from center field. There will be no precipitation threats again on Tuesday, but San Francisco is the winner for the biggest trouble spot. Well, it's trouble if you're a pitcher. The winds will be gusting from 16-20 mph from home plate to straightaway center field, making for a potentially long (or really short) night for the pitchers.

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