Ballpark Figures – Week 19

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Pudge Junior
The San Francisco Giants kick off an interleague series againts the defending World Series champion Houston Astros on Monday night in a good pitching matchup. All-Star RHP Charlie Morton takes the bump for the 'Stros, while the Giants counter with rookie RHP Dereck Rodriguez, son of Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez.

The Astros have won four of their past five games overall, and they're also 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall record. In addition, Houston has posted an 11-4 mark over the past 15 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher, while posting an impressive 38-17 mark across their past 55 games away from home. Houston has also been outstanding against National League West clubs, winning 38 of their past 54 against that division. Houston has cooled off a bit with Morton toeing the slab, as they're just 1-4 in his past five tries against a team with a winning overall record. The Astros are also an impressive 17-3 in their past 20 starts by Morton when working on five days of rest, and they're a perfect 7-0 across his past seven in the first game of a new series.

So what about Rodriguez? D-Rod? Pudge Jr.? He'll get his own nickname soon enough if he continues to pitch well. San Francisco has won seven of the rookie's past eight starts, and they're 4-1 in his past five outings at home. The Giants have been money at home aginst right-handed starting pitching, going 16-5 across the past 21 games. They have had their issues against RHP lately, however, winning just two of their past seven, while going 1-5 in the past six at home. They are also a dismal 2-5 in the past seven interleague battles, while cashing in just two of their past seven against AL West clubs, too.

Total bettors might want to thump the 'under'. The under is 5-2 in Morton's past seven overall, while going a perfect 4-0 in their past four against NL West clubs. The under is also 25-10-2 in the past 37 against NL West foes. For the Giants, the under is 5-1 in Rodriguez's past six apperances, and 4-1 in their past five interleague battles. There isn't a huge history between these sides lately, but the under is 4-1 in the past five meetings, and a perfect 5-0 in San Francisco.

Looking Ahead

Monday, Aug. 6
Trevor Bauer and the Indians host the Twins, looking to finally get it right. The boys from the Twin Cities have been a thorn in the side of the first-place Tribe, and they're 4-0 in Kyle Gibson's past four road assignments against the Indians. The Indians, however, are 5-2 in Bauer's past seven against the Twinkies.

There are plenty of Minnesota batters who have had their way against Bauer. Jorge Polanco is 4-for-17 (.235), which isn't great, but three of those hits are good for homers. Eddie Rosario is hitting .364 (12-for-33) with a double, two homers and nine RBI against Bauer, while Joe Mauer is hitting a cool .302 (13-for-43) with seven doubles, a homer and six RBI. Logan Morrison also doesn't have a long history against the Cleveland righty, but he is 6-for-17 (.353) with two doubles, a homer and three RBI against Bauer. The Indians hope Bauer can stay hot at home, as he is 5-1 with a 2.02 ERA across 75 2/3 innings over 11 starts, and the opposition is hitting just .194 against him while he has 97 strikeouts.

Marlins LHP Wei-Yin Chen has some of the wildest splits in baseball. He'll take the ball against the visiting Cardinals at Marlins Park. He is 2-2 with a 2.18 ERA in eight outings over 45 1/3 innings with a .209 opponent batting average at home, and 1-6 with a 10.27 ERA over 37 2/3 innings across nine road assignments. It's a good thing Monday's game is on his home field. He has struggled at all venues since the All-Star break, going 1-1 with a 6.55 ERA in two starts. He'll be opposed by RHP Luke Weaver. The Cardinals are 11-5 across the past 16 on the road with Weaver on the hill, including 5-2 in his past seven away games against a losing team. St. Louis has won nine of their past 11 visits to Miami. The over is also 12-3-1 in the past 16 in South Florida, and 12-3 in the previous 15 meetings overall.

Weather Report
In Cleveland, the weather is expected to roll in during the middle innings, with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms forecast at 8pm, bumping up to a 50-50 chance by 9pm. There will also be wind blowing from 9-12 mph out to right field. In the Windy City, the Yankees and White Sox will also face a 40 percent or better chance of thunderstorms starting at 7pm CT through midnight. Those are the only two trouble spots, however.

Tuesday, Aug. 7
The Braves and Nationals will battle in a day-night doubleheader from Nationals Park on Tuesday. The Nats split a doubleheader over the weekend against the Reds on Saturday, and they were swept by the Dodgers back on May 19 in their only other twin bill. Atlanta split their only double dip on May 28 against the Mets. So far there have been 23 doubleheaders with just four resulting in a sweep. The home team has swept a doubleheader just twice in 2018.

Orioles RHP Alex Cobb will face his former employer, the Tampa Bay Rays, in St. Petersburg. The home fans might give him a very nice welcome in his first time at Tropicana Field in a visitors' uniform. He has lost both of his previous starts against the Rays, although his last outing on July 26 resulted in a quality start, his second straight outing with three or fewer earned runs and six or more innings pitched.

Mariners RHP Felix Hernandez will meet the Rangers in Arlington. The road has been unkind to King Felix, as he is 4-4 with a dismal 7.58 ERA across 10 starts while the opposition is hitting .298 against him away from home. Hernandez isn't overpowering batters anymore, either, as he has just 37 strikeouts over 48 2/3 road frames. He has two no-decisions against Texas this season, but a 6.10 ERA with a .250 opponent batting average across 10 1/3 innings. Elvis Andrus loves facing Hernandez, as he has piled up 16 RBI in 102 at-bats with a respectable .284 batting average.

Weather Report
There will be a cool jetstream to straightaway center field at AT&T Park for Tuesday's matinee battle between the Astros and Giants. The winds will be blowing 11-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph, so watch the 'over' play. Across the bay, the Dodgers and A's will also face windy conditions, blowing 11-15 mph out to the right-center field power alley.

In Cleveland, the weather is expected to pull out around 8pm ET, and there is a three-hour window with favorable conditions before the weather is forecast to arrive again by 11pm ET. This one will be touch-and-go. At Citi Field, precipitation won't be the problem, but winds will be the issue. The winds will be blowing 10-13 mph to the left-center field power alley for the Reds-Mets outing.

In Denver, the Pirates and Rockies could see a passing thunderstorm late in the game, but expect the contest to be mostly uninterrupted. 

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