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Wkd Series Prices – Best Bets

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
MLB Weekend Series Prices Best Bets

It was another rough weekend for this feature a week ago, as the chalky Phillies had the bankroll choking on all that chalk, dropping the first two games of their series with Miami to make it another quick and painful loss with these selections. There is no denying that this year has not gone well with these weekend series plays, and I for one am looking forward to the All-Star break to step back and regroup.

There is still a full weekend slate of action to get through before we reach that point, and hopefully we can end the unofficial first half of the year on the right foot with a winner to close down things this weekend. With 11 different series' starting up on Friday, we are going to change things up in an effort to change these recent results and step out on two series plays this weekend, one from each league.

Let's get to it:

Series Price: Baltimore (+140) vs Toronto (-160)

By far the least attractive series on the board to the casual fan as it's two AL East teams are who are 24.5 and 31.5 games out of the division lead, and the Jays coming in with the better record of the two at 20 games below .500. 2019 has been a year full of growing pains for the Orioles and Blue Jays, and there probably won't be any sort of reprieve from those in the 2nd half of the year. But it's these kind of “even” matchups that can help the growth and development of the young guys on both sides in the sense that they learn how to win at the major league level, and with the season series tied at three games apiece between these two, one of them will go into the All-Star break holding the upper hand there.

From a recent form perspective, it's hard not to like this Toronto team right now, as their bats have been tearing the cover off the ball. It took some time, but all the highly talented (and touted) prospects Toronto's had in their system have finally grown comfortable as MLB players, and with six or more runs scored in eight straight games (and 13 of their last 15), this Blue Jays offense has really found their stride. That kind of consistent production is tough to beat, and given that seemingly every team has pounded on a bad Baltimore pitching staff this year, it goes to reason that the Jays should be chalk as the home favorite this weekend.

But then you've got to ask yourself if Toronto is really worth being a -160 favorite here, as this team still finds ways to cough up games despite all the offensive production they've been getting – Toronto blew a 6-1 lead in the 6th against Boston on Thursday – and whether or not these hot Toronto bats remain at that temperature going into the break.

Baltimore may not have the pitching staff on paper to cool off Toronto's bats significantly, but on a weekend where motivation and focus may be lacking from some guys as extended mid-season vacations are on the horizon, Baltimore's staff could surprise some. Saturday's slated starter Andrew Cashner is coming off a shutout outing against Cleveland, and Sunday's starter for the Orioles , Gabriel Ynoa, was on the wrong end of a 2-0 defeat against that same Indians team in his last start. Ynoa did get roughed up in his last start against Toronto, but Cashner owns a 2-1 win over this Blue Jays team this year, and Friday's starter Dylan Bundy has yet to face this Jays team in 2019 and arguably has the best numbers of any Orioles starter this year. If Baltimore gets strong efforts from two thirds of that group, who knows what could happen this weekend.

Toronto counters with Aaron Sanchez, Clayton Richard, and Trent Thornton, three guys who've really had some rough outings in recent starts, and more outings like that will put too much pressure on the Jays bats to bail them out. This scoring bonanza that Toronto's been on has been great to see from this young lineup taking that next step before our eyes, but it's also not going to last forever either. It might not be until after the break that we see them cool completely off, but until then, it's still 60 cents on the dollar you've got to lay here and that's just too steep of a price to not go the other way.

Baltimore has managed to contain Toronto's bats in their three wins over the Jays this year, and while the opposite has been true in Baltimore's three losses, we can't ignore the fact that in the previous two series between these two teams in 2019, the road team has come away with the series victory each time. With this type of value on the Orioles this weekend, it's a value play that's got to be sided with.

Best Bet: Baltimore to win the series

Series Price: Colorado (+130) vs Arizona (-150)

This is another weekend set between division rivals who hurt their neck looking up at their division leader, but unlike the Orioles and Jays, Colorado and Arizona are decent teams and do have realistic playoff expectations they are trying to achieve this year.

However, just like the series above, it's the underdog or nothing as a play this weekend, as Colorado has absolutely owned Arizona this year – they've won eight straight against the Diamondbacks overall – and that's just too hard to ignore. Yes, I do believe that some regression is coming in terms of those one-sided results eventually, but that kind of domination does impact teams mentally, and I'm not sure Arizona has the mental makeup to get over that and take two of three this weekend.

On the field, both sides enter Friday's game riding respective three-game losing streaks, as Arizona watched the Dodgers walk-them off twice this week, while Colorado couldn't out slug the Astros in their two-game set this weekend. But it will be Colorado's bats that help power them to a series victory this weekend, and with the more consistent starting rotation from top to bottom over these three days, the Rockies are in a scenario where this line should be closer to the +110 to +115 range in my opinion.

Arizona's 17-22 SU record at home is suggestive of the notion that they aren't worth this type of chalk in this spot, and coming into Friday's game on a 3-10 SU run against righties, including being 2-6 SU in their last eight at home against righties, the fact that three righties are lined up to start for Colorado in this series does not bode well for the Diamondbacks.

So give me the plus money on the Rockies this weekend as they go out and further the gap between themselves and the rest of the chase pack in the NL West.

Best Bet: Colorado to win the series

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