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Saturday’s Best Bet

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
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Saturday MLB Betting Preview (9:10 p.m. ET)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Arizona Diamondbacks used some late inning heroics to come back on LA last night as a 2-run HR in the 9th tied the game, before a solo shot in extras ultimately gave them the win. The game ended with tempers flaring though as both sides had plenty to say about the other about how a few things down late, and chances are we see some of that animosity carry over to tonight's contest.

Tonight we've got a pitching matchup of Alex Young vs Kenta Maeda, and given recent form, it's Arizona who holds a significant edge there. Can they parlay that into another victory tonight, or will the big bad Dodgers look to flex their muscles after listening to the Diamondbacks pop off after just a single win.

MLB Odds: Arizona (+159) vs LA (-169); Total set at 8.5

This is not the first time the Dodgers have gotten in a post-game shouting match with a team this year, as when you're the best of the best in the division and arguably the National League, when worse teams get one over on you, they aren't always shy about letting LA know about it. At the same time, multiple occurrences could also suggest that there is something to these Dodgers opponents being fed up with how Dodgers players react to certain situations going down on the field, so it is what it is I guess.

We should probably expect a bean ball or two tonight to send a message that this thing ain't over yet, but when you are as good as the Dodgers are, the best form of redemption is beating down your foes on the scoreboard and watching them get quieter and quieter with each run that crosses home plate. That's all well and good in theory for LA backers tonight, but with Kenta Maeda and his struggles on the hill, chances are we see Arizona put up a few runs themselves.

Maeda's last four starts have been awful for the most part, as he's not pitched more then 4.1 innings in any of them, and seeing his opponents finish with 9 and 10 runs respectively on the scoreboard in his last two.

Thanks to his teammates though, LA is 1-1 SU in those games, as sometimes the Dodgers bats don't shy away from supporting their pitchers when they are down, although Maeda's been down for awhile. Eventually that wears on offensive guys when they've always got to be 'on' because their starter continually puts them in holes, and it makes for a tough scenario to back the Dodgers at this price tonight.

You know they'll be out to show Arizona that they are the big bad bullies in this division after how yesterday went down, but Maeda could still blow it for them if that's the case.

Which means in terms of the side, I can only look Arizona's way, but the better play here is on this game sailing 'over' the total.

The Dodgers have had four straight 'unders' since Maeda's last start – probably not a coincidence – and even though Maeda starts had five straight 'unders' cash prior to that, four of those five games saw at least nine runs scored. In all four of those cases, the total closed at 10 or higher, and 'under' bettors were extremely lucky to escape with a win. You play with that much fire and you'll eventually get burned, and it did all come to a head in the 11-10 outing LA had in his last start.

Arizona is just as capable of knocking him around like the Padres did, and considering HP umpire Cory Blaser actuallys sees road teams put up more runs per game (5.4) than home teams (5), we should see Arizona get to at least four runs tonight.

Even just those average run totals for Blaser gives the 'over' plenty of wiggle room to work with this evening, and with the Dodgers being in a vengeful mood, and ranking 7th in all of baseball in terms of runs scored against southpaws (179) they'll do some damage against Young as well.

Maeda is nothing more then a stop-gap guy LA has got to throw out there these days with injuries to guys like Ryu, Stripling, and Hill, and thankfully for them, they've built up such a big cushion that they can afford to play in (and possibly lose) 8-7 type games once every five days.

Tonight's a spot where I trust the 'over' a hell of a lot more then the Dodgers, and if there are bean balls traded between the clubs for last night's animosity, at least we will get a couple of “free” base runners out of it to help cash this play right.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs

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