MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, June 10th
These are the two best home run props for today, June 10, 2025:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+600)
- Cal Raleigh (+290)
Although we have a full slate of 15 MLB games this Tuesday, it’s a relatively light card with just two picks.
Keep reading for more details about Tuesday's MLB home run prop bets. Check out the latest sportsbook promos and get in on all of the MLB action!
Be sure to check out our comprehensive MLB home run odds.
Home Runs Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+600 | DraftKings) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (SP: Miles Mikolas)
First up, we have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Anyone who is an experienced home run bettor has probably felt the pain of betting on Vladdy. It took Vlad 27 games to hit his first home run of the 2025 campaign, but is now up to eight through 66 games and is showing plenty of positive regression after his outlier start.
Year after year, Vladdy generates more hard hits and barrels than just about anyone not named Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge, and this year isn’t all that different as Guerrero Jr. is in the 88th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg. Exit Velo., and Hard Hit % via Baseball Savant.
However, the power numbers don’t usually back up these outstanding underlying metrics, as Vladdy doesn’t lift the ball as well as other power hitters. But, when we take these long shots, it’s not about whether we’re “hitting” on these bets as much as whether the odds are too long, and that’s certainly the case here.
DraftKings Sportsbook is currently hanging an enticing +600 number at the time of writing, and that’s simply too long against Miles Mikolas, who allows hard contact and doesn’t generate any whiffs. Mikolas has actually done fairly well limiting the long ball; however, after failing to surrender a dinger in his first six starts, he has since allowed four in his last seven.
It also doesn’t hurt that it’ll be around 82-84 degrees with light wind blowing out.
Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+290 | bet365) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (SP: Brandon Pfaadt)
Updated on 6/14/25
Second, we have one of the more profitable home run bettors of the 2025 MLB season, Cal Raleigh.
“Big Dumper” currently holds a nice lead with 26 homers on the year (next up is Judge with 23). Raleigh is on pace for a ridiculous 65 dingers - it’s doubtful that he’ll keep this pace, but it’s certainly worth monitoring that we may be witnessing the best offensive single season ever from a catcher.
The analytics are just as good as you’d think - per Baseball Savant, Raleigh is in the 95th percentile or better with respect to xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel %.
It hasn’t really mattered which side of the plate Raleigh is batting from, but he’s enjoyed better power numbers as a lefty with 18 home runs and a 185 wRC+.
Tonight, he faces off against right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who has regressed hard since enjoying a decent breakout in 2024. Pfaadt is allowing 1.65 HR/9 and has a horrendous 6.35 xERA.
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