May 25, 2020
KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for Tuesday May 26
With Memorial Day weekend ending, the summer has unofficially started. Usually this would mean that we would be in the middle of the NBA playoffs and the MLB regular season, however this year US major sports are shutdown. Without major sports, we are stuck watching German Soccer, Russian Table Tennis, UFC, and Tom Brady barely playing golf.
However, Taiwan (CPBL) and South Korea (KBO) continue to play live professional Baseball. The CPBL games even have a limited number of fans, assuming they do not get rained out as they did for 5 out of 6 days last week. This Tuesday, we have plenty on our “breakfast baseball” plate with a full slate of 5 KBO games, and 1 CPBL game. For Tuesday morning’s slate, my three best bets are for two KBO moneyline favorites, and a CPBL total.
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
- Games: 1
- Time: 6:35 AM EST
- Watch: LIVENow, Twitter
CTBC Brothers (-225) at Uni-President 7/11 Lions (+165)
- Games: 5
- Time: 5:30 AM EST
- Watch: ESPN2, DraftKings App, Bet365 App
Samsung Lions (+105) at Lotte Giants (-135)
LG Twins (-170) at Hanwha Eagles (+140)
Kiwoom Heroes (+150) at NC Dinos (-180)
Kia Tigers (+115) at KT Wiz (-145)
SK Wyverns (+195) at Doosan Bears (-240)
Tuesday's Baseball Pick of the Day
Lotte Giants Moneyline -135 (William Hill)
For Tuesday's pick of the day, the 9-8 Lotte Giants host the 6-12 Samsung Lions in a nationally televised game on ESPN2. The Samsung Lions currently have the second worst record in the KBO, and they might finish the year at the bottom of the standings. My model gives the Lotte Giants a 63% chance of winning against the Samsung Lions who have the second-worst record. I believe that Lotte is undervalued by the oddsmakers because Lotte’s starting pitcher Dan Straily is undervalued and Samsung’s Lineup is overvalued.
Based on all ten KBO lineups that will be fielded for tomorrow’s games, my model projects the Samsung Lineup to produce the fewest runs per game if they were to play a full season. Currently Samsung is slightly below the league average of 5.3 runs per game with an average of 4.94 runs per game, but that number is misleading. Only 18 games have been played so far, and Samsung’s home stadium Daegu Samsung Lions Park is the most hitter friendly ballpark in the league. If Samsung played all their games in the typical KBO stadium, they would average fewer runs per game.
In addition to Samsung’s offensive being overrated, I believe that Lotte is undervalued because of their starting pitcher Dan Straily. In 2019, Straily performed so poorly, that he could not even stay on the roster for one of the worst MLB teams of all-time in the 2019 Baltimore Orioles. Straily had a 9.82 ERA and is now out of Major League Baseball. However, the competition of the KBO is judged by MLB scouts to be between AA and AAA level baseball. Each KBO team is limited to only 3 foreign players, and the Lotte Giants viewed Straily highly enough to give him one of their few roster slots. So far in 2020, Straily has not disappointed as he has a 3.68 ERA and a 3.85 FIP. I expect Straily and the Lotte Giants to dominate the Samsung Lions.
KBO 7-Inning Moneyline to Back
KT Wiz 7-Inning Moneyline -135 (BetAmerica)
Usually I am not a proponent of 5 or 7 inning bets due to the increased variance of those bets, but the KT Wiz bullpen has been awful enough this year to merit betting on the 7-inning moneyline at -135 odds on the KT Wiz. For that bet to hit, the KT Wiz must be leading by the end of the 7th inning. If the game is tied after the 7th inning, the bet is a push and you are refunded your wager. The KT Wiz have the second worst bullpen ERA in the KBO at 8.23 which is shockingly not the worst bullpen ERA. In comparison, their opponents the Kia Tigers have a bullpen ERA of only 4.18. While I do not believe in the idea of a clutch reliever, it is notable that KT’s closer already has a 0-3 record.
As far as the game is concerned, my model gives KT a 60% chance of winning due to the strength of their lineup. KT currently leads the league with an average of 7.0 runs scored per game, and I expect KT to continue to either lead the league in this figure or to at least to rank in the top 3 teams. In a neutral playing environment among all 10 lineups that will be fielding in KBO games tomorrow, my model gives the KT Wiz the second highest rating in the league. While Kia’s starting pitcher Drew Gagnon is a better pitcher than KT starting pitcher Je-seong Bae, I don’t think Kia’s offense can produce enough runs to either win the game or be in the lead after 7 innings.
CPBL Pick of the Day
CTBC Brothers at Uni-President 7/11 Lions Under 14.5 Runs -120 (William Hill)
The CPBL this year has produced scores that are closer in resemblance to YMCA softball games than they are to professional baseball games. Recent games have ended in scores such as 19-9, 15-11, 10-17, 15-6, and 18-8. These high scoring games have caused the CPBL to acknowledge that they are using “juiced” baseballs this year which create more runs than the baseballs that are used in MLB, KBO, and NPB games. In response to this “scandal”, the CPBL is going to be changing their baseballs at some point this year, even though high scoring games like baseball cheerleaders and mascots are part of the CPBL’s charm.
With such a high frequency of high scoring games and media attention to the juiced ball issue, CPBL totals are being raised to high amounts such as 14.5 runs. The reason why I think that the total amount of runs scored will be less than 14.5 runs in tomorrow’s game is because the pitching for the CTBC Brothers will dominate the Uni-President 7-11 Lions. Starting pitcher Jose De Paula for the Brothers has underperformed this year with a 6.34 FIP. However, despite his poor performance this year, last season at a higher level of play in the Mexican League De Paula was a groundball pitcher giving up only 0.6 home runs per 9 innings.
While De Paula has poorly performed this year, he has dominated the Uni-Lions with 20 strikeouts in only 2 games. In addition to De Paula, The Brothers lead the CPBL with the lowest bullpen FIP in the league. I believe that the Brothers will easily win tomorrow, however the moneyline odds on the Brothers are so skewed that the best way to bet on that game is to bet on fewer than 14.5 runs being scored.
Best Bets Tracker
- Lotte Giants Moneyline -135 (William Hill)
- KT Wiz 7-Inning Moneyline -135 (BetAmerica)
- CTBC Brothers at Uni-President 7/11 Lions Under 14.5 Runs -120 (William Hill)
Record: 5-1, +3.45 Units, +57.5% ROI