Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for Wednesday, June 10
Tomorrow June 10th, we have a full slate of “breakfast baseball” with all KBO (South Korea) and all CPBL (Taiwan) teams playing for a 7-game slate.
The moneyline and total odds for both CPBL games are efficient for tomorrow, so I will be steering clear of the CPBL and only betting on KBO games. For tomorrow’s games I am backing a moneyline for a large favorite, a run line, and a moneyline underdog.
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
CPBL - Taiwan
- Games: 2
- Time: 6:35 a.m. ET
- Watch: LIVENow, Twitter
Rakuten Monkeys (-215) at Uni-President 7/11 Lions (+160)
Fubon Guardians (-137) at Chinatrust Brothers (+105)
KBO - South Korea
Doosan Bears (+170) at NC Dinos (-210)
Hanwha Eagles (+155) at Lotte Giants (-205)
SK Wyverns (+125) at LG Twins (-157)
Kia Tigers (-175) at KT Wiz (+135)
Kiwoom Heroes (-240) at Samsung Lions (+195)
Wednesday's Pick of the Day
Kiwoom Heroes Moneyline -240 (William Hill)
Kiwoom Run Line -1.5 -154 (Bet on FoxBet)
For my breakfast baseball play of the day for tomorrow, I am betting on both the moneyline and the run line for the Kiwoom Heroes in their matchup against the Samsung Lions. The Kiwoom Heroes are currently in 4th place in the KBO standings with a 18-13 record, and if the season were to end today, they would make the playoffs. In contrast to the Kiwoom Heroes, their opponents the Samsung Lions are 13-18 and are worse than their record suggests. Kiwoom has a huge edge in tomorrow’s matchup against Samsung in both hitting and pitching and as a result, my model gives the Kiwoom Heroes an 81.5% chance of winning tomorrow.
One of the best reasons to fade the Samsung Lions in this game as well as in other games is due to their lackluster offense. On paper Samsung does not appear to be that bad at hitting as they average 4.87 runs per game when the KBO average is 5.24 runs per game. However, this is misleading to look at when you consider that Samsung’s home stadium Daegu Samsung Lions Park is the most hitter friendly stadium in the KBO. If they were to field tomorrow’s lineup in a neutral stadium, they would have the 2nd worst lineup in the league behind only the lowly Hanwha Eagles. It is also working against Samsung’s favor that in their last 7 games, they only scored more than 4 runs only once and my model projects Kiwoom to score 6.16 runs in tomorrow’s game. For Samsung to win they would have to perform better offensively than they have performed in recent history.
Despite Samsung’s offensive issues, they have been able to win a good amount of their games this year with solid starting pitching. However, the Samsung Lions are in an unenviable position in tomorrow’s game as they are using Starting Pitcher Jung-Hyun Baek who is 0-3 with a 10.29 ERA. Jung-Hyung Baek’s performance this year is a complete mystery as he pitched 157 innings in 2019 with a 4.24 ERA, 4.90 FIP, while giving up only 1 home run per 9 innings. This year has been a completely different story for Baek as he is giving up 3.9 home runs per 9 innings. In contrast to Baek, Kiwoom is using Starting Pitcher Eric Jokisch who is 5-0 with a 1.49 ERA and a 2.33 FIP. While it is likely that both Baek and Jokisch will have completely different numbers by the end of the year, the gap between both of these pitchers is so large that even if Samsung didn’t have offensive issues the only rational option would be to bet on the Kiwoom Heroes moneyline and run line.
KBO Underdog of the Day
Doosan Bears Moneyline +170 (William Hill)
Yesterday I bet on the Doosan Bears to beat the NC Dinos as +145 moneyline underdogs, and they lost 8-12. When betting on underdogs to win outright, they will usually lose but you should keep betting on them if they are undervalued by the betting public. Based on the NC Dinos league leading 24-6 record, the betting public is overvaluing NC, and this is putting a premium on their moneyline odds against all teams including the Doosan Bears who are the defending 2019 KBO Series champion.
Even though the Doosan Bears are not at the top of the KBO standings, they are 5 games behind NC in second place and tomorrow’s game is a must win game for the Doosan Bears. The final KBO regular season standings determine how many playoff series each team must play in order to win the Korean Series. If a team finishes in first place, they only must play in one series. If Doosan wants to have the best chance to win the Korean Series at the end of the year, they need to finish in 1st place in the regular season as they did in 2019.
Despite NC’s -210 moneyline odds implying that NC has a 67.8% chance of winning, my model sees tomorrow’s game as a tossup. As a result, I am backing the Doosan Bears moneyline at +170 odds implying that they have only a 37% chance of winning when my model has them at a 47.6% chance.
One reason why the NC Dinos are in first place is because they lead the KBO with a colossal average of 7.3 runs per game. The Doosan Bears are not far behind the NC Dinos as they are second in the KBO with an average of 6.2 runs per game. However, despite what appears to be a wide gap between the two teams’ lineups, my model only gives NC’s lineup only a slight edge. This is because NC has a handful of players that are having career years who will eventually revert to the mean causing NC’s lineup to not be as dominant as they currently are.
In terms of the starting pitching for tomorrow’s game, both the NC Dinos and the Doosan Bears are evenly matched. Both teams are using foreign pitchers in tomorrow’s game, and KBO teams are only allowed to use three spots on their rosters for foreign players. Because KBO teams are limited in the number of foreign players that they can have on their roster, they depend on their foreign players to perform more than they depend on their domestic players. On paper, NC Starting Pitcher Drew Rucinski appears to be the stronger pitcher as he has a 4-0 record with a 2.11 ERA. This is in comparison to Doosan Starting Pitcher Raul Alcantara who is 5-1 with a 4.63 ERA. However, Ruciniski’s ERA of 2.11 is lower than his FIP of 3.05, and Rucinski was not nearly as good last year in the KBO as he is this year. I think it is unfair to view the NC Dinos as the lopsided favorite, when the evidence suggests that tomorrow’s game is a tossup. That is why I am betting on the Doosan Bears to win outright at +170 moneyline odds.
Best Bets Tracker
- Kiwoom Heroes Moneyline -240 (William Hill)
- Kiwoom Run Line -1.5 -154 (Bet on FoxBet)
- Doosan Bears Moneyline +170 (William Hill)
Record: 12-11, -1.16 Units, -5% ROI