Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM

KBO Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for June 23

It is almost the end of the June and some of us are still stuck inside with nothing to do. We can only watch Tiger King so many times before we realize that we miss live sports.

Fortunately, “breakfast baseball” isn’t only 7 episodes like Tiger King, as live games are being played in South Korea (KBO), Taiwan (CPBL), and Japan (NPB).

For tomorrow’s games I am betting on two KBO moneyline favorites, and two KBO run lines.

Tuesday, June 23, 2020 Betting Schedule

KBO - South Korea

Doosan Bears (-180) at SK Wyverns (+150)
Hanwha Eagles (+150) at Samsung Lions (-180)
Kia Tigers (-160) at Lotte Giants (+125)
Kiwoom Heroes (-150) at LG Twins (+118)
NC Dinos (-160) at KT Wiz (+125)

Tuesday's Pick of the Day
Doosan Bears Moneyline -180 (Bet365)
Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 -115 (Bet365)

For my KBO play of the day, I am betting on both the moneyline and the run line for the Doosan Bears in their nationally televised matchup against the SK Wyverns. The Doosan Bears are currently tied for 2nd place in the KBO with a 25-16 record and if the season were to end today, they would make the playoffs. Doosan is currently riding a 4-game winning streak that includes a sweep of the LG Twins and I believe they will extend their winning streak to 5 games after tomorrow.

In contrast to the Doosan Bears, their opponents the SK Wyverns are 12-29 and they have the 2nd-worst record in the KBO. In addition to having the 2nd worst record in the KBO, SK has gone 1-10 in their last 11 games and they are in the middle of a 6-game losing streak. For tomorrow’s game I am taking the red-hot Doosan Bears over the ice-cold SK Wyverns.

Despite my model giving Doosan a 69.9% chance of winning tomorrow’s game against Doosan, the moneyline odds for Doosan are currently at -180 which implies that they only have a 64.3% chance of winning. One of the reasons why It is smart to take Doosan over SK is because of SK’s lackluster offense. Out of all 10 KBO teams, SK ranks 9th in runs per game as they only score 3.78 runs per game. In contrast to SK, Doosan is 2nd in the KBO with an average of 6.22 runs per game.

With such a wide gap between both lineups, I think that not only will Doosan win, but they will win by a large margin. For SK to pull off the upset tomorrow they would have to perform better offensively than they have performed in recent history and keep the Doosan offense to a lower amount of runs than usual.

For a team to beat Doosan, they need to have quality pitching. Unfortunately for SK, they do not have quality pitching as their bullpen has the 2nd-worst FIP in the KBO with a FIP of 5.50. In addition to having a weak bullpen, SK’s starting pitcher for tomorrow’s game Tae-Hoon Kim is no prize either as he is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA, and a 5.24 FIP. In direct contrast to SK, the Doosan Bears bullpen has the 2nd-best FIP in the KBO with a FIP of 4.30.

Besides having a better bullpen than SK, Doosan also has better starting pitching for tomorrow’s game. The starting pitcher for Doosan in tomorrow’s game is Chris Flexen who is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. The juice on both the Moneyline at -180 and the -1.5 run line at -115 is worth the squeeze as Doosan has a large edge in both hitting and pitching.

KBO Favorite to Back
Kia Tigers Moneyline -160 (PointsBet)
Kia Tigers Run Line -1.5 +105 (FoxBet)

Besides the Doosan Bears, another favorite that I am backing in tomorrow’s KBO Slate are the Kia Tigers against the Lotte Giants. The Kia Tigers have been a surprise this year as they have a 23-18 record despite many KBO analysts projecting them to be one of the worst teams this year. Over their last 12 games, the Kia Tigers are 8-4 and I believe that they will continue their dominance in the KBO against the Lotte Gaints. The Lotte Giants are currently only 3 games behind the Kia Tigers in the KBO standings with a 20-21 record.

Like the Kia Tigers, the Lotte Giants were also projected to be at the bottom of the KBO standings, but they have surprised many by clinging to an almost .500 record. However, in their last 9 games Lotte is 3-6 and I believe that their good luck is running out. Despite both teams appearing to be nearly equal on paper, I believe that Kia should be more heavily favored than they currently are as my model gives them a 66.9% chance of beating Lotte.

One area in which Kia and Lotte are nearly identical to each other in terms of performance is in hitting. Kia currently averages 5.05 runs per game, while Lotte averages 4.66 runs per game. However, Kia’s strength over their recent stretch of games has been with their pitching rather than their hitting. In the month of June, Kia has held their opponents to 4 runs or less in 13 out of 17 games.

The Kia Tigers may not be the Big Red Machine, but if they keep pitching like the 1990’s Braves, they don’t need to be in order to keep winning games. In order to beat Kia Tigers, the Lotte Giants will have to score more runs than they normally do which is not an easy task against the Kia Tigers.

The Kia Tigers bullpen currently has the best FIP in the KBO with a 4.26 FIP. In contrast to the Kia bullpen, The Lotte Giants bullpen has a FIP of 5.45 which is more than a run higher than Kia. This is important as it means that the Kia Tigers bullpen can be relied upon to preserve any lead that Starting Pitcher Aaron Brooks leaves the game with. Brooks who played last season for the Oakland A’s is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA, and a 2.99 FIP.

In 8 starts this season, Brooks has given up more than 3 earned runs only once and It is reasonable to expect him to pitch 6 innings and give up only 2-3 earned runs against the Lotte Giants. Opposing Brooks is Lotte Starting Pitcher Jun-won Seo who is 3-1 with a 3.71 ERA. However, Seo’s record is deceptive as his FIP of 5.57 is much higher than his ERA of 3.71. This implies that Seo’s low ERA is due more to luck than good pitching. I expect Kia to win tomorrow’s game by a large margin based on their edge in starting and relief pitching. That is why I am betting on the Kia Tigers moneyline at -160 and the Kia Tiger -1.5 run line at +105 odds.

Best Bets Tracker

  • Doosan Bears Moneyline -180 (Bet365)
  • Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 -115 (Bet365)
  • Kia Tigers Moneyline -160 (PointsBet)
  • Kia Tigers Run Line -1.5 +105 (FoxBet)

Record: 16-17, -2.65 Units, -8% ROI

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