Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
KBO Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for June 25
After months of debate, an agreement has been reached between MLB owners and players to start the 2020 MLB season in late July.
While the month long wait for the start of the MLB season seems long, the best baseball league in the world will be back before we know it.
In the meantime, we still have live Baseball being played in South Korea (KBO), Taiwan (CPBL), and Japan (NPB). For today’s KBO slate, four out of five games were rained out and as a result we have 4 double-headers tomorrow.
Unfortunately, odds for tomorrow’s KBO slate are only posted for the first leg of the four double-headers and the lone game in the Hanwha Eagles vs. Samsung Lions series.
The moneyline odds for all those games are efficient, except in one of those games. As For tomorrow’s KBO slate I am backing a moneyline underdog, and a run total over.
Thursday, June 25, 2020
KBO (South Korea)
- Games: 5
- Time: 2:00 a.m. & 5:30 a.m. ET
- Watch: ESPN, DraftKings App, Bet365 App, Fanduel App, Sugarhouse App
Doosan Bears (-160) at SK Wyverns (+130) (Game 1)
Hanwha Eagles (+195) at Samsung Lions (-240)
Kia Tigers (+150) at Lotte Giants (-180) (Game 1)
Kiwoom Heroes (+105) at LG Twins (-135) (Game 1)
NC Dinos (-180) at KT Wiz (+150) (Game 1)
KBO Play of the Day
KT Wiz Moneyline +150 (William Hill)
In my article yesterday about today’s KBO slate, I picked the KT Wiz to win outright as +150 moneyline underdogs against the NC Dinos. Unfortunately, today’s game was rained out and we will never find out if I was right in making that bet. However, the first game of tomorrow’s double header between the KT Wiz and the NC Dinos has the exact same odds as yesterday’s game. The odds correctly reflect that nothing significant has changed between the two teams and as a result I am betting on the KT Wiz to win against the NC Dinos at +150 moneyline odds. For two days in a row, the oddsmakers and the betting public are overvaluing the NC Dinos.
One reason why the NC Dinos are heavily favored against the KT Wiz is that they have a great lineup. The NC Dinos are 1st in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 6.70 runs per game. However, the KT Wiz have a great lineup as well as they average 5.61 runs per game. While, the NC Dinos produce more than 1 run per game on average than the KT Wiz, both projected lineups for tomorrow’s game would produce the same number of runs across a full season of baseball. The statistic of runs per game does not accurately reflect KT’s ability to score runs as the average wRC+ for players in their projected lineup for tomorrow’s game is virtually identical to NC’s lineup. The average wRC+ for the players in the projected lineup for the KT Wiz this year is 124, while the average wRC+ for the NC Dinos projected lineup is virtually identical at 124.6. While runs per game is a useful metric for measuring offensive strength, wRC+ is a better metric as it is an advanced ballpark-neutral statistic which measures how many runs each player individually creates.
Like yesterday’s game, neither team has an edge in starting pitching. This is because the NC Dinos are planning on using yesterday’s starting pitcher Mike Wright who is 5-2 with a 3.80 ERA, and a 4.82 FIP. While Mike Wright on the surface looks like an above average KBO starter, I believe he is just average as evidenced by his 4.82 FIP which is a full run higher than his ERA. The KT Wiz on the other hand are using a different starting pitcher than yesterday and as a result, my model believes that the KT Wiz are 1.1 percentage points more likely to win tomorrow’s game. While the KT Wiz were planning on starting Min-Soo Kim for yesterday’s game, for tomorrow’s game they will be using Je-seong Bae as their Starting Pitcher. Je-Seong Bae has a 3-1 record with a 4.02 ERA, and a 5.05 FIP. While Bae may not be an ace, he does have the ability to pitch for many innings and that is helpful for the KT Wiz as they have the worst bullpen in the KBO. However, while the KT Wiz has the worst bullpen in the league, the NC Dinos have the second worst bullpen in the league. Based on the NC Dinos only having a slight edge in pitching and hitting, I am betting on the KT Wiz to win as heavy underdogs at +150 moneyline odds.
KBO Total of the Day
Hanwha Eagles at Samsung Lions Over 9.5 Runs -120 (PointsBet)
For my KBO total of the day, I am betting that over 9.5 runs will be scored in tomorrow’s nationally televised game between the Hanwha Eagles and the Samsung Lions. While the juice for run total wagers are typically set at -110 odds, I believe that betting on over 9.5 runs to be scored at -120 juice is worth the squeeze as my KBO model projects a total of 10.43 combined runs to be scored in tomorrow’s game. This is partially due to the fact, that the Samsung Lions home stadium of Daegu Samsung Lions Park is the most hitter friendly stadium in the KBO. Not only is this game played in a hitters park, but the best reason to take the over is because of poor pitching from both teams.
While David Buchanan is respected by the KBO betting public in tomorrow’s game, I believe this has more to do with him being a foreign pitcher than his actual pitching ability. This is because KBO teams are limited to only three foreign players on their roster and as a result there is a lot of pressure on foreign players to perform in the KBO. David Buchanan currently has a 5-2 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 5.03 FIP. While Buchanan has a low ERA and the ability to easily pitch 6 or more innings, the betting public is overlooking Buchanan’s 5.03 FIP which is a much more accurate reflection of his pitching ability. While the Hanwha Eagles offense is last in the KBO with an average of 3.40 runs per game, I believe that they are an underperforming offensively and that is why I believe they will contribute enough runs for 10 or more combined runs to be scored between both teams.
As far the Samsung Lions are concerned, I believe that they will contribute more runs toward the run total than the Hanwha Eagles. This is not just because of Hanwha’s weak lineup, but also because I believe that the Samsung Lions will rip the Hanwha Eagles pitching to shreds. The starting pitcher for the Hanwha Eagles is Bum-Soo Kim who is 1-4 with a 4.70 ERA and a 6.45 FIP. If Kim has numbers this bad for the entire season, imagine how poorly he will perform in Samsung’s stadium. Bum-Soo Kim started this season as a reliever, and his last game was his first start of the year. In that start, Kim lasted only 4.1 innings giving up 3 earned runs. I imagine that the Samsung Lions offense which averages 5.19 runs per game is going to eat Kim alive. In addition to Kim’s propensity to allow earned runs, The Hanwha Eagles Bullpen has a FIP of 5.35. When considering Samsung’s lineup, and the pitching for both teams, betting on over 9.5 runs to be scored is the best run total wager for tomorrow’s KBO slate.