Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
MLB Total Over-Under Picks for Friday July 24
It's tough on Opening Day to heavily base wagering decisions on trends that different teams accomplished to end last season, but exploring all potential angles is hardly a bad thing.
So no matter how you decide to attack Opening Day, it's good to have baseball back and let's hope it sticks around for the entirety of what's planned.
It wouldn't be an Opening Day without some free plays to put out there though, and that's where some of those better total trends for the day do come into the discussion.
Going back to the 2019 season, here are some notable trends to watch for Friday's betting slate.
Once the 2020 campaign gets rolling, we'll focus on seasonal data plus home and away trends and notable pitcher angles.
Trends to Watch
- The Braves are 7-21-2 O/U in their last 30 series openers
- The Tigers are 0-7 O/U in their last seven on the road
- The Reds are 1-9-2 O/U in their last 12 as a home favorite
- The Royals are 9-3 O/U in their last 12 road games; 7-3 O/U in last 10 series openers
- The Indians are 7-1 O/U in their last eight games
- The Red Sox are 10-2-1 O/U in their last 13 games overall; 6-0 O/U in last ten vs lefty
- The Cubs are 7-0 O/U in their last seven series openers
- The Pirates are 15-5-1 O/U in their last 21 on the road; 12-5 O/U run in division play
- The Mariners are 0-7 O/U in their last seven games; 0-6 O/U in last six division games
- The Athletics are 0-7 O/U in their last seven games; 0-6 O/U in their last six division games
MLB Over-Under Total Picks
Friday July 24, 2020
Best Bet - Over
Baltimore/Boston Over 10
I'm a lot higher than the market is on the Boston Red Sox this year as they appear to be a highly popular team to fade in the AL East, but they do get to open the year against a Baltimore team that's not likely to be good again. Had it been a normal year I was all about the Orioles 'over' their win total number though and still have higher than market expectations for them as well this year.
So two teams I'm higher than most on, squaring off with two starters I'm skeptical about with a line that didn't last long at it's opening number of 9.5 seems like as good a spot as any to fire on a full game 'over' out of the gates. Both teams are built to win with offense first as it is, and those total trends Boston put up to conclude the 2019 season don't do anything to harm this opinion. Play the Over 10 at FanDuel!
Best Bet - Under
Seattle/Houston Under 8.5
No fans at the game doesn't please anyone, but the Houston Astros might prefer it better than most. No constant heckling from the fallout of their trash can scandal in terms of taunts, and they always knew they were going to have to take all the bean balls that they will. The quicker Houston makes opponents pay on the scoreboard for those decisions to throw inside, the quicker it will taper off in all likelihood, but it's still going to be a bit of a nervous adjustment inside that box for Houston hitters.
At the same time, a Seattle team that's not expected to compete for much is up against Verlander tonight, meaning runs from the Mariners side of things are likely few and far between. That alone puts too much pressure on this Astros lineup to do all of the heavy lifting for 'over' bettors, and in Game 1 when guys are still not totally sure if they are going to have to eat one or not, I'll go on the low side of this total that's really only climbed higher tonight.
Seattle finishing the way they did with their run of 'unders' overall and in division definitely doesn't hurt.
Back the Under 8.5 at FanDuel!
Best Bet - First-5 Inning
Pittsburgh/St. Louis Over 4
Another suspected bottom feeder team tickling my interest today, as the Pirates have a shot to play a real good spoiler role in what most expect to be a wide open NL Central division. The surprising part for the Pirates will have to start with how well they perform offensively though, as that's easily where the weakness appears to be on paper.
At the same time, the Cardinals are a franchise that expects to be in the conversation for division winner each year regardless of the season format, and to start a campaign off like that the right way, burying a weaker team early on would be a great early season confidence boost. I'm still not convinced Joe Musgrove will work out as that top of the rotation guy Pittsburgh wants him to be. The Pirates finished 2019 as a solid 'over' bet away from home and/or against division rivals, and tonight's game fits both of those criterion.
Play the Over at FanDuel!
Best Bet - Team Total
Los Angeles Angels Over 3.5
Not the way a year that had high hopes attached to it was meant to play out for this Los Angeles Angels organization. They went out and opened up the bank account to get Mike Trout what help they could this winter, and now another year with a slow start or big time lull early on could be devastating.
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt out of the gate that this lineup, that's very long now with the Rendon addition, can come out of the gates hitting it well and let the chips fall where they may in terms of wins and losses early on.
The thick Oakland air that's always a boost to 'under' bettors in A's home games at the start and end of seasons just isn't as much as a factor with the season starting in late July, and with the lineup Oakland's built the past few years, teams better expect to score 4+ runs if they want a shot at beating the A's. The Angels out of the gate is a team I'm happy to back to get to that number.