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MLB Prop Picks and Predictions for Friday August 14

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

MLB Friday Prop Plays

  • Rangers at Rockies
  • Brewers at Cubs
  • Mets at Phillies

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in NJ, CO, IN, WV, PA, and IA

First 5 Innings Prop Pick

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies

Under 5.5 Total Runs (-126)

After taking their last series at home against Seattle and winning 5 of their last 6 games, the Texas Rangers (8-9) will aim to keep it going in the Mile-High City against Charlie Blackmon and the Colorado Rockies (12-6) on Friday night.

The Rockies and Rangers played their opening series against each other, and while the bats may have been rustier a few weeks ago than they are now, in that series these 2 teams combined for an average of just 4.3 total runs per game, including the 1-0 game Lance Lynn lost on Opening Day. Lynn gets the ball again for the Rangers in this contest, who has continued to be lights out after his first start, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.16 ERA over 4 starts to open his 2020 campaign.

In his first start against Colorado this season he tossed 6 innings, allowing just 2 hits and 0 runs in the Ranger’s 1-0 Opening Day victory. On the other side for the Rockies, 24-year old rookie, Ryan Castellani will get the ball in what will be his 2nd big league appearance. Castellani was almost perfect in his MLB debut against the Mariners, allowing 0 runs and 0 hits, allowing just 1 BB in his 4.0 IP, and will look to bring that momentum into Friday.

The first time these teams matched up this season, 2 out of 3 run totals for the WHOLE GAME stayed under 5.5. This matchup will be played in Denver, so the OU totals are juiced due to the ball typically flying in the Mile-High City, and the Rockies mashing the ball in their last 3 games (>7.5 RPG). Regardless of the location of this matchup, I believe 5.5 total runs is too high of a mark for these lineups to eclipse in the first 5 innings, given the starting pitchers in this one.

I am backing Lynn and Castellani to have good starts in Denver today, by taking the first 5 innings under.

First 5 Innings Prop Pick

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Under 4.5 Total Runs – First 5 Innings (-104)

Yesterday, Yu Darvish took a no-hitter into the 7th inning in Chicago’s 4-2 win over the Brewers, and Tyler Chatwood will try to keep that kind of pitching going for the Cubs in game 2 of their 4-game set with Milwaukee on Friday.



Chatwood’s ERA sits at a 5.40 for the season, but there is no need for panic, as he has still managed to allow under 1.5 runs in 2 out of his 3 starts so far, and one of those starts came against Milwaukee. Chatwood was victorious in his first 6-inning start against the Brewers this season, allowing 1 run on 3 hits in the Cubs 9-1 win. He has a career record of 5-3 with a 2.75 ERA against the Brewers Brewers ace, Brandon Woodruff will try to nab his 3rd win of the 2020 season after posting a 2-2 record with a 2.53 ERA in his first 4 starts. His first start came against Chicago, allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits in the Brewers Opening Day 3-0 loss to the Cubs.

I expect Chatwood to be good to be good against the Brewers again, and for Woodruff to give Milwaukee a puncher’s chance at winning this contest in another low scoring matchup between division foes. Leaning with the under is a good play in this matchup at very close to even money.

First 5 Innings Prop Pick

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Mets Money Line – First 5 Innings (-140)

Money always feels safe when its placed on Jake deGrom, and today it even feels a little safer as he will take the mound against rookie, Spencer Howard in his 2nd big league start for the Philadelphia Phillies. Howard got banged around in his MLB debut last week, allowing 4 runs on 7 hits across 4.2 IP in the Phillies 8-0 loss to Atlanta. Howard has a bright future ahead of him, likely to be the #2 in this rotation someday, but I believe Friday night is unlikely to be the game he “breaks out,” as he is about to run into a Mets lineup that has tallied 26 hits against Washington over the last 2 days, and is squaring off against possibly the best pitcher in the bigs.

Jacob deGrom has posted a record of 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his first 4 starts of 2020 and will aim to stay undefeated tonight. The Mets ace has been very good against the Phillies in 15 career starts, posting a 7-1 record with a 2.23 ERA and 101 strikeouts. Both of these bullpens have been atrocious so far this year, so I see the F5 inning money line as the optimal play in this matchup by taking both team’s relievers out of the picture. Count on the Mets to jump out on the rookie early, and for deGrom to keep the Phillies in check like he typically does with the Mets first half money line.

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