Aug 14, 2020
Hot & Not Report - Lefty Starters
MLB Who's Hot and Not Betting Angles
Now that we've got a few weeks of data to consume for this year's baseball season, it's never a bad idea to look at a few tendencies that have prevailed so far.
And while I'm sure there are other things that could be touched on, today's piece focuses on what is common enough that it's a daily occurrence, but uncommon enough that bettors don't have to overexpose themselves in betting the majority of the board.
Let's get to it!
Straight Up (SU), Over-Under (O/U)
Backing 'under' in lefty starter vs lefty starter matchups
This beauty is 15-8 coming into action on August 14.
A 15-8 'under' mark (65%) has been a nice way to pick up a few units for those that have been on this 'under' trend in lefty vs lefty outings, and we should have at least two opportunities to put this into action on Friday.
Seattle vs. Houston (Total 8.5 Runs)
- Mariners - Yusei Kikuchi
- Astros - Framber Valdez
L.A. Dodgers vs. L.A. Angels (Total 9 Runs)
- Dodgers - Clayton Kershaw
- Angels - Patrick Sandoval
For those that would prefer to break this down a bit further, below are the Over-Under results.
American League vs. American League: 3-5 O/U
National League vs. National League: 3-6 O/U
Interleague: 2-4 O.U
Now there is always going to be that lingering voice that may suggest a trend like this should end up reverting back to the mean, so by no means use this blind history to go out and play those two lefty-lefty games tonight 'under' without finding other support for the play.
But there is no denying that this trend does have some legs early in this season and it will be interesting to see how it plays out over the coming weeks.
And if you are looking for an edge on the side in these games, there really isn't one, as the road team is 12-11 overall in the first 23 instances of left-handers vs. left-handers.
Backing a team with a lefty starter on the ML vs. a righty starter
The lefty-righty matchup is always going to me more prevalent as it is, and to have 108 games applicable to it already gives this trend a bigger sample size to help base your opinions on.
Left-handers are just 46-62 straight up entering Aug. 14's games.
Interestingly enough, this trend out of the gate was 3-14 SU in just the first two full days of the regular season back in late-July, and has continued to add a few units since then.
More importantly though, from July 24th through August 13th (21 days), if you blindly took the right-handed starters team you'd have at least a .500 record with your daily selections 15 of those 21 days.
Now this isn't completely taking into account the actual closing ML prices so units +/- may be a little different (there is so much going on in sports right now that tracking individual ML prices for all 108 games was a little too time consuming), so take that for what it's worth. But this is still something worth considering going forward, unless you do believe some regression to the mean is coming to this trend as well.
In terms of immediate action, this is something that should be more prevalent for Saturday's card as the projected matchups there have numerous lefty-righty games slated. Again, these trends are blind and should be treated as just another data point of support in handicapping, but important to make note of nonetheless.
Saturday's Expected Lefty vs. Right Matchups
- Mets (L) at Phillies (R)
- Pirates (L) at Reds (R)
- National (L) at Orioles (R)
- Royals (L) at Twins (R)
- Mariners (L) at Astros (R)
- Athletics (L) at Giants (R)
- Red Sox (R) at Yankees (L)