MLB Home Run Derby Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

The MLB Home Run Derby will take place at Dodger Stadium on Monday, July 18 at 8:00 p.m. ET with seven of the league’s top sluggers set to challenge two-time defending champion Pete Alonso. Will Alonso defend his title yet again? VegasInsider has you covered with a full slate of predictions, picks, and odds to help handicap all the All-Star Weekend festivities.

• Kyle Schwarber (PHI) To Win the Home Run Derby (+330)
• Juan Soto (WAS) To Win the Home Run Derby (+600)
• Pete Alonso (NYM) To Reach the Home Run Derby Finals (+120)

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) To Win the Home Run Derby (+330)

Phillies’ OF Kyle Schwarber (28 HR) is the home run leader in Monday’s competition by a comfortable margin with Alonso (24 HR), Corey Seager (21 HR), and Juan Soto (19 HR) being the next derby participants on the leaderboard behind him. Schwarber boasts the fourth-best average exit velocity in the National League this season (93 MPH), which only trails Joc Pederson (93.8 MPH), J.D. Davis (93.5 MPH), and Austin Riley (93.4 MPH); and that type of pop should be enough to knock off the back-to-back champ if he plays his cards right.

Juan Soto (WAS) To Win the Home Run Derby (+600)

Nationals’ OF Juan Soto participated in his first Home Run Derby last season and put on quite the show in the opening rounds as he defeated top-seeded Shohei Ohtani with 31 HR’s in a swing-off in the first; before eventually getting eliminated by Alonso in the second (15 HR). Soto showed off some serious pop by cranking 30+ HR’s and a 520-foot bomb in the opening round of last year’s derby, however, if he channels that same energy for three rounds this time around, the sky is the limit for Soto in this event.

Updated on 05/04/2024

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Pete Alonso (NYM) To Reach the Home Run Derby Finals (+120)

Alonso has won back-to-back Home Run Derbies, making him the fourth player to win multiple derbies since the event’s inception back in 1985, which joins prestigious company in Ken Griffey Jr. (’94, ’98, ‘99), Yoenis Cespedes (’13, ’14), and Prince Fielder (’09, ’12). Alonso might not always put the flashiest swing on the ball, considering he’s tied for 82^nd in the league in average exit velocity (89.9 MPH); however, his max-velo still ranks 12^th amongst the league’s heaviest hitters (116.5 MPH), and he's already finessed his way through this competition twice, so reaching the finals at plus odds feels like a steal here.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson