San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets Game 3 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The San Diego Padres will take on the New York Mets Saturday in the final game of the NL Wild Card round. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 PM ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York and can be viewed on ESPN.  

Updated on 04/26/2024

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SAN DIEGO PADRES at NEW YORK METS BETTING PREDICTION

After a dominating game-one performance the Padres failed to get the job done in game two with a 7-3 loss to the Mets. The offense had just six hits on the day and went 1-5 with runners in scoring position. A bit of a turnaround from the four home runs in game one. Starting pitcher Blake Snell went 3.1 innings while giving up four hits and two runs. The rest of the bullpen did not play well either, giving up a combined five hits and five runs. The right-hander Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42 ERA) is expected to start Sunday. Right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA) is scheduled to start on Sunday. 

The Mets looked much better on both sides of the ball in game-two. The offense had nine hits and put up seven runs. The first baseman Pete Alonso and shortstop Francisco Lindor both homered which is a good sign for the Mets as those two are keys to the offense. Starting pitcher Jacob DeGrom had a solid outing, going 6.0 innings and giving up five hits and two runs. The relief crew was near perfect, giving up just one hit and zero runs. The right-hander Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42 ERA) is expected to start Sunday. 

I like the Mets to win game three and move onto the NLDS. The Padres have looked solid, but I think you have to back the home team and the momentum here. Also, Bassitt pitched well in his one outing against the Padres this season, going 7.0 innings while giving up four hits and two runs. Backing the Mets MoneyLine here.  

Score Prediction: Mets 5, Padres 3
Best Bet: Mets ML (-135)

SAN DIEGO PADRES at NEW YORK METS BETTING ODDS

SAN DIEGO PADRES at NEW YORK METS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, October 9, 2022
• Matchup: NL West vs. NL East
• Venue: Citi Field
• Location: New York, New York
• Time-TV: 7:37 p.m. ET – ESPN
• Expert Picks

SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING ANALYSIS

After Saturday’s loss the Padres are now 90-74 SU and 72-91 ATS. San Diego is 4-2 SU in their last six games against the Mets and 5-2 SU in their last seven games on the road. The total has gone under in five of their last eight games when playing on the road against the Mets.  

The Padres could not get much going on Saturday after a stellar game-one performance. However, San Diego has been hitting the ball well on the season with a batting average of .241 (16th), on base percentage of .318 (8th), slugging percentage of .382 (22nd) and have scored 705 total runs (13th). Right fielder Juan Soto went 2-4 during Saturday’s loss and was the only player with multiple hits for the Padres. The third baseman Manny Machado went 0-4 and is now 1-8 in his two playoff games.  

The entire Padres bullpen struggled on Saturday. On the season they allowed opponents a batting average of .232 (8th), have a WHIP of 1.20 (9th), and team ERA of 3.81 (11th). The right-hander Joe Musgrove is expected to start Sunday and will need to give the Padres five to six innings of work. Musgrove was 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA this season and gave up 154 hits, 59 earned runs, and struck out 184 batters in 181.0 innings of work. In his one outing against the Padres this season, gave up five hits and four runs in 5.1 innings.  

NEW YORK METS BETTING ANALYSIS

Headed into game three the Mets are 102-62 SU and 88-76 ATS. The Total has gone over in 10 of New York’s last 12 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in five of their last eight when playing at home against San Diego. The Mets are now 7-2 SU in their last nine games against an NL West opponent. New York is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home and 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.  

New York’s offense looked much more comfortable on Saturday compared to game one. They have been playing great throughout the season with a batting average of .259 (2nd), on base percentage of .332 (2nd), slugging percentage of .412 (8th) and 772 runs scored (5th). First baseman Pete Alonso and shortstop Francisco Lindor had solid production in game two. These two are key to the offense and will need to come up big in game three.  

It was a little bumpy for the Mets bullpen towards the end of game-two, but innings one through eight they looked very good. New York had one of the better bullpens throughout the season, allowing opponents a batting average of .236 (11th), have a WHIP of 1.18 (6th), and team ERA of 3.57 (7th). Right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt is scheduled to start Sunday. Bassitt went 15-9 SU with an ERA of 3.42 this season and gave up 159 hits, 69 earned runs, and struck out 167 batters in 181.2 innings. In his one outing against the Padres this season, Bassitt gave up four hits and two runs in 7.0 innings.  

KEY PLAYERS

• SDG: Manny Machado - 3B (Last Game: 0-4, 3 K, BB)
• SDG: Jurickson Profar - LF (Last Game: 1-4, BB, RBI)
• NYM: Pete Alonso - 1B (Last Game: 1-3, HR, 2 BB)
• NYM: Francisco Lindor - SS (Last Game: 2-4, BB, RBI)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• SDG: Joe Musgrove - RHP (-)
• NYM: Chris Bassitt - RHP (-)