2021 MLB Home Run Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

July 12, 2021

Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Home Run Derby Betting Odds

2021 MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets

• Joey Gallo to win +450
• Trevor Story to win +800
• Left-Handed Winner -155
• Longest Home Run Over 510.5 feet -110
• Shohei Ohtani Longest Home Run +400

Coors Field Dimensions

• Left Field: 347 feet
• Left-Center: 390 feet
• Center Field: 415 feet
• Right-Center: 375 feet
• Right Field: 350 feet
• Backstop: 56 feet

Odds per DraftKings - Subject to Change

Favorite to Consider

Best Bet: Joey Gallo (+450)

Gallo is one of my favorite targets for this event. While many players will have to adjust their swings, Gallo is going to do what he always does - swing for the fences. Despite just a .237 batting average this season, he’s managed to hit 23 home runs in just 83 games along with four already in July.

Gallo isn’t the type of guy to string together singles and doubles, but when he gets hot he can absolutely crush the ball. From June 26 to July 1 he managed to hit seven bombs over the course of five games. Gallo also currently holds one of the farthest hit regular-season home runs ever, coming in fifth with the 495-foot home run he hit in 2018.

Another interesting piece of information is just how successful the No. 2 seed has been in recent Derby events. Since 2015, Todd Frazier, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, and Pete Alonso have all won from the No. 2 seed. With the whole world tuning in to see if Shohei Ohtani is the real deal, Gallo could very easily shock the world.

Finally, Gallo also gets a nice boost by being one of the left-handed sluggers participating in the event. With Coors Field notoriously being one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the country, people forget details like the left-center fence is 15 feet shorter than right-center. While details like this are normally overlooked, every single possible edge matters in an event like this.

Joey Gallo enters this year's MLB Home Run Derby as one of the favorites, hitting 24 home runs with 52 RBIs this season. (AP)

Long Shot to Consider

Best Bet: Trevor Story (+800)

Trevor Story is looking to become a hometown hero, attempting to be the most recent Home Run Derby winner to win at their home park. While local players have had mixed success over the years, Bryce Harper was the most recent player to do it in 2018.

It’s hard to ignore the comfort factor with Story here. Coors Field may be the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the country, but nobody else in this competition has more reps here than Story. It’s easy to downplay this as a simple narrative but when you really think about it, Story knows this ballpark like the back of his hand which could play to his advantage.

This is an exhibition match and while other guys will be out there playing for fun, Story will be playing for a whole city. He’s going to have that humongous crowd behind his back ,and will have 10-times the motivation compared to the field. This is obviously a long shot for a reason, but it’s hard to not root for the home field defender here. Story has shown plenty of power in the past.

Prop Bets to Consider

Best Bet: Left-Handed Winner (-155)

With these types of bets, I normally just side with the plus money odds but there is a clear edge here. Just by consensus alone, the four favorites for this contest are Ohtani, Gallo, Alonso, and Matt Olson. All but Alonso are left-handed batters, which gives us a clear edge.

Considering the bracket, and that four of the eight contestants are left-handed, we're going to see a lefty in the finals no matter what. Now consider the fact that three of the four favorites are left-handed, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lefty vs. lefty finals.

DraftKings also is offering up exact outcomes, and six of the seven top outcomes (by the odds) all result in left-handed batters winning. With the sportsbooks being so confident a left-hander is going to win this thing, I’m not seeing a reason to disagree.

While I understand exhibitions are normally about chasing long shots, and -155 numbers aren't appealing, this is a nice value. Maybe have a bigger bet on a left-hander winning to balance out all your long shots for the night.

Best Bet: Longest Home Run Over 510.5 ft. (-110)

Coors Field and home run records are synonymous with each other throughout history, and I don’t think that changes at all this year. Previously, the farthest home run hit in Derby history happened with an Aaron Judge 513-foot bomb in 2017. When you really think about it Marlins Park and Coors Field are complete opposites, whether it’s humid Florida air or thin Colorado air, I’m expecting records to be broken with this impressive group of sluggers.

Bets like this are also perfect for an event like the Home Run Derby. This will very likely cash in the first two rounds when everyone is fresh, but you can also sweat it out until the very last matchup when adrenaline kicks in.

With the MLB already announcing they won’t be using the humidifying systems, I’m confident we’re going to see balls go farther than we ever have before. Former Rockies slugger Matt Holliday thinks we could see a ball surpass 550 feet, and I don’t disagree with the local legend.

Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Longest HR (+400)

It was incredibly hard for me to pick between Ohtani and Gallo, and I honestly wouldn’t mind sprinkling on both. The motto at Coors is the harder you hit it the farther the ball goes, and that perfectly fits Ohtani’s game. He rates in the 97% percentile or higher in key categories such as exit velocity, batted ball distance, expected slugging percentage, and hard-hit ball percentage.

Ohtani also currently leads the group with the farthest regular-season home run, a 470-foot bomb against the Royals on June 8. Whether it’s the notorious home run he launched through the Tokoyo Dome in 2016 or one of the 33 bombs he’s hit this season, we all know the power he posses. Being the No. 1 seed also means he’s likely to make it deeper in the bracket, which gives us more opportunities to cash this ticket.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson