Last Updated May 13, 2022, 9:59 AM
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions,Picks, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
The Western Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Monday night with a pivotal fourth matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
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Warriors 113, Grizzlies 107
Under 224.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions
After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.
However, Golden State was far less dominant in the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).
On the other hand, Memphis posted a surprisingly mediocre start to the season, as the Grizzlies kicked things off with a lackluster 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.
However, Memphis has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since that opening skid, considering the Grizzlies enter Monday’s Game 4 riding an impressive 52-20 SU and 47-24-1 ATS run, while averaging 117 OPPG and allowing just 108.2 DPPG during that timeframe.
I’ll take the under here, as the total has gone over in 8-of-13 postseason matchups containing either of these teams, which includes Golden State’s wins in Games 1 and 3 of this series; however, the pace of this matchup should inevitably slow down between the Warriors’ second-ranked defense (105.9 DPPG, 1.040 DE) and the Grizzlies’ fifth-ranked defense (110.2 DPPG, 1.054 DE).
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources
- Matchup: Southwest vs. Pacific
- Date: Monday, May 9, 2022
- Venue: Chase Center
- Location: San Francisco, CA
- TV-Time: TNT - 10:00 p.m. ET
- Injury Report
- NBA Playoff Betting Central
Memphis Grizzlies Betting Analysis
- SU: 61-30
- ATS: 57-33-1
- O/U: 47-43-1
After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, Memphis initially flew under the radar by posting a 9-10 SU start to this season, which inevitably left the Grizzlies tagged as underdogs in seven-of-ten matchups to open December; however, Memphis quickly stole the spotlight with a trio of upset victories and a sturdy 7-3 SU record across that stretch.
Memphis has been scorching hot since that point though, considering the Grizzlies have tallied 117 OPPG and allowed just 108.2 DPPG across their current 52-20 SU run, which includes averages of 113.6 OPPG and 112.8 across nine postseason matchups.
Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis
- SU: 58-31
- ATS: 45-41-4
- O/U: 41-47-2
After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State quickly bounced back wearing a chip on its shoulder to open this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.
Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 4 riding a relatively pedestrian 41-27 SU and 30-35-3 ATS stretch, while holding their opponents to just 108.4 DPPG across that span.
However, the Warriors' mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson, highlighted by Golden State averaging roughly 115.5 OPPG across their 40 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head
The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Memphis last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 215.7 PPG, before ultimately meeting again in the Play-In Tournament, which resulted in a thrilling overtime victory for the Grizzlies (117-112 OT, O 221).
However, Memphis went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those meetings staying well under the total at an average of 211.5 PPG, while the other two barely cashed over tickets at an average of 220.5 PPG.
The first two matchups of this series in Memphis were a wild ride though, as Golden State escaped FedExForum with a thrilling road win in Game 1 (117-116, O 224), while Game 2 resulted in a narrow home victory for the Grizzlies (106-101, U 228).
Unfortunately, Ja Morant exited the fourth quarter of Game 3 with a knee injury, which enabled Golden State to run away with a 30-point home victory down the stretch of Saturday’s affair (142-112, O 225.5).
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Key Players to Watch
- MEM: Dillon Brooks - SG (18.4 PPG, 3.2 REB, 2.8 AST)
- MEM: Desmond Bane - SF (18.2 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.7 AST)
- GSW: Jordan Poole - SG (18.5 PPG, 3.4 REB, 4 AST)
- GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion
After taking a 2-1 series lead with a commanding home victory in Game 3 (W, 142-112), the Warriors enter Monday’s fourth matchup as nine-point favorites over the Grizzlies at Chase Center, which is slightly heavier than the number Golden State was favored by in their previous contest (GSW -7).
I’ll take the under here, as the Warriors and Grizzlies have comfortably paced the league in scoring since the start of the postseason, with Golden State currently averaging 118.8 OPPG across eight playoff matchups and Memphis averaging 113.6 OPPG across nine playoff matchups; however, the pace of this series should ultimately slow down between a Warriors squad that’s smothered its opponents to 105.9 DPPG throughout the year, and a Grizzlies squad that’s allowed just 110.2 DPPG.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends
- The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- The Grizzlies are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine Warriors' games.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine Grizzlies' road games.
- The Warriors are 14-5 SU in their last 19 home games against Memphis.
- The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Golden State.
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