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Thunder vs Mavericks Game 3 Picks, Odds | NBA Playoffs Prediction

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

The second round of the NBA Playoffs continues with a pivotal 2-game slate this Saturday with a pair of conference semifinal series tied at one game apiece -- and the first matchup of the day we'll preview is Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 3, which is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Mavs are 3-point home favorites on the spread in Saturday's contest, while the total is set at over/under 219 total points at DraftKings.

Here's everything you need to know about Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Mavericks and Thunder -- the latest betting odds, as well as our expert picks and prediction for the NBA Playoffs on Saturday, May 11.

Thunder vs Mavericks Odds

OKC @ DAL Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+2 -108 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -114 -4.5 +190 +0.5 -125 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -125 +0.5 -108 +1.5 -112  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-2 -112 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -106 +4.5 -250 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -118 -1.5 -108  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
o219.5 -110 o112 -110 o112 -108 N/A o111.5 -115 o112 -110 o111.5 -115 o111.5 -118 o217 -108  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
u219.5 -110 u112 -110 u112 -112 N/A u111.5 -115 u112 -110 u111.5 -115 u111.5 -109 u217 -112  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+112 N/A -105 -105 -115 -108 N/A +102 -102  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-132 N/A -115 -115 -115 -112 N/A -129 -116  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+2 -108 +1.5 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +1.5 -139 +1.5 -112  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-2 -112 -1.5 -105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.5 +108 -1.5 -108  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
o219.5 -110 o106 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A o105.5 -108 o217 -108  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
u219.5 -110 u106 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A u105.5 -124 u217 -112  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+112 N/A -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A -109 -102  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-132 N/A -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A -117 -116  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+2 -108 +0.5 -115 -0.5 -100 -3.5 +200 +0.5 -125 +0.5 -115 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -112  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-2 -112 -0.5 -105 +0.5 -122 +3.5 -250 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -105 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -110 -1.5 -108  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
o219.5 -110 o56 -105 o55.5 -125 N/A N/A o56.5 -105 o55.5 -120 o55.5 -118 o217 -108  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
u219.5 -110 u56 -115 u55.5 -102 N/A N/A u56.5 -115 u55.5 -110 u55.5 -110 u217 -112  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+112 N/A -110 -105 -110 -105 N/A -103 -102  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-132 N/A -110 -120 -120 -115 N/A -125 -116  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+2 -108 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -112 N/A +0.5 -125 +0.5 -118 +0.5 -120 +1.5 -143 +1.5 -112  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-2 -112 -0.5 -110 -0.5 -108 N/A -0.5 -105 -0.5 -102 -0.5 -105 -1.5 +110 -1.5 -108  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
o219.5 -110 o55.5 -120 o55.5 -125 N/A N/A o55.5 -118 o55.5 -120 o56.5 -105 o217 -108  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
u219.5 -110 u55.5 -110 u55.5 -102 N/A N/A u55.5 -102 u55.5 -105 u56.5 -127 u217 -112  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+112 N/A -110 N/A N/A -105 N/A -112 -102  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-132 N/A -110 N/A N/A -115 N/A -115 -116  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+2 -108 +1 -115 +0.5 -115 N/A +0.5 -125 +0.5 -105 +0.5 -120 +1.5 -143 +1.5 -112  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-2 -112 -1 -115 -0.5 -105 N/A -0.5 -105 -0.5 -115 -0.5 -105 -1.5 +110 -1.5 -108  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
o219.5 -110 o53.5 -115 o52.5 -102 N/A N/A o52.5 -115 o52.5 -115 o52.5 -106 o217 -108  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
u219.5 -110 u53.5 -115 u52.5 -125 N/A N/A u52.5 -105 u52.5 -115 u52.5 -125 u217 -112  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+112 N/A -105 N/A N/A +105 N/A -105 -102  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-132 N/A -115 N/A N/A -125 N/A -121 -116  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+2 -108 +0.5 -115 -0.5 -102 N/A +0.5 -125 +0.5 -112 +0.5 -125 -1.5 +115 +1.5 -112  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-2 -112 -0.5 -115 +0.5 -120 N/A -0.5 -105 -0.5 -108 -0.5 even +1.5 -150 -1.5 -108  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
o219.5 -110 o52 -110 o51.5 -122 N/A N/A o51.5 -112 o51.5 -105 o52.5 -124 o217 -108  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
u219.5 -110 u52 -120 u51.5 -104 N/A N/A u51.5 -108 u51.5 -120 u52.5 -108 u217 -112  
Final
Oklahoma City Thunder 505 Thunder
+112 N/A -112 N/A -110 even N/A -118 -102  
Dallas Mavericks 506 Mavericks
-132 N/A -108 N/A -120 -120 N/A -108 -116  

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Thunder vs Mavericks Picks & Prediction

In Game 1 of this Western Conference Semifinal matchup between the Thunder and Mavericks, it looked like Dallas might not be able to run with this young OKC team out of the gate, as the Mavericks scored just 95 points on 39% from the field and 34% from 3-point range on the way to an ugly 22-point loss in Tuesday’s series opener.

As we learned in Game 2, however, it’s much easier to reduce the gap in youth and athleticism when the team lacking in those two departments makes a bunch of 3-pointers at a high volume – and that’s exactly how Dallas managed to even up this series, as the Mavs went off for 119 points by knocking down 18-of-37 (48.6%) attempts from 3-point range in Thursday’s contest, which was enough to escape with a 119-110 road victory.

Keep in mind though, the Mavs shot the ball about as well as they possibly could from beyond the arc in Game 2. While at the same time, they also managed to catch the Thunder on an off-night, considering OKC shot 10-of-30 (33.3%) from 3-point territory in Thursday’s loss, which certainly isn’t the norm for a team that leads the entire NBA in 3-point shooting percentage (38.9%).

However, even on a bad day, the Thunder still posted modest offensive numbers by scoring 110 points on 47% from the field in Game 2, and the Mavs could barely keep them at bay despite shooting 15% better from long range and receiving a very favorable whistle away from their home floor with Dallas boasting a +8 differential in free throw attempts in Thursday’s win.

Basketball fans are probably sick of hearing the phrase “3-point variance,” but it’s the only thing you need to know about heading into Game 3 of this series. The Thunder shot 16-of-35 (45.7%) from 3-point territory on the way to a win in Game 1, and then 10-of-30 (33.3%) in a loss in Game 2. The Mavs shot 12-of-35 (34.3%) from 3-point range in a loss in Game 1, and then 18-of-37 (48.6%) en route to a win in Game 2. As long as Dallas has Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at the helm, there’s always a chance of the Mavericks erupting from downtown and leaving the opposition helpless like they did in Game 2. 

Push comes to shove though, the Thunder ran away with a 22-point blowout win on their “good night.” While contrarily, the Mavs still had a little bit of trouble putting away OKC in Game 2, despite going nuclear from 3-point land in the win, as the Thunder actually led with less than seven minutes left in the third quarter and trailed by only five points at the 6:31 mark of the fourth quarter. The shift in homecourt will likely hurt this young Thunder team, but I still trust OKC’s athleticism and consistency to prosper over the Mavs’ occasional combustibility from long range moving forward.

Pick: Thunder +3 (-110)

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Thunder vs Mavericks Game Time & TV Channel

Date: Saturday, May 11
Matchup: Southwest vs. Northwest
Venue: American Airlines Center
Location: Dallas, TX
Time-TV: ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET

Thunder vs Mavericks Betting Stats

1) Oklahoma City Thunder
(1st Place, Northwest)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +800
  • Odds to Win Conference: +310
  • Odds to Win Series: +110
  • SU: 57-25
  • ATS: 46-35-1
  • O/U: 45-36-1
  • PPG: 120.1
  • OPPG: 112.7

Click this link for the latest betting trends and market movements leading up to the NBA Finals!

5) Dallas Mavericks
(1st Place, Southwest)

  • Odds to Win Finals: +950
  • Odds to Win Conference: +320
  • Odds to Win Series: -134
  • SU: 50-32
  • ATS: 48-34
  • O/U: 36-45-1
  • PPG: 117.9
  • OPPG: 115.6

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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