Chiefs vs Packers Prediction, Picks, Odds | Sunday Night Football Week 13

Here's everything you need to know about the Chiefs vs. Packers Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 13.

The 13th Sunday of regular season NFL action concludes with a primetime non-conference clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers. Coverage begins from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

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Chiefs vs Packers Betting Prediction & Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 13

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

At most sportsbooks, the Chiefs enter the week with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl somewhere around +450, only trailing the 49ers on the futures odds list and listed slightly ahead of the Eagles in that department. However, the current level of respect on display for this Kansas City team is primarily a reflection of historical data as opposed to the brand of football they’ve played so far this season.

The Chiefs own a solid record of 8-3 on the year, and they trail the Ravens by just a half-game for the top spot in the AFC playoff picture. However, after finishing Top 6 in scoring and total yardage in five straight campaigns, the Chiefs have scored 21 points or less in over half of their matchups so far this season (6), while ranking 11th in points scored per game. And quite frankly, the only reason their offense has avoided falling to the bottom half of the league in scoring is because their average has been kept afloat by double-digit victories over the Bears, Chargers, and Raiders to pad their numbers with point totals of 41, 31, and 31.

Make no mistake about it. The Chiefs have still managed to grind out eight wins this season. So it certainly isn’t all doom and gloom for Kansas City. The Chiefs are still an excellent football team – but very different from the one we’ve seen in recent years.

This season, Kansas City is winning games on the shoulders of its defense. The Chiefs enter the week ranked 3rd in points allowed and 6th in per play yardage on the defensive side of the ball, which is quite the culture shock for this team after ranking outside of the Top 10 in total yardage in five straight campaigns prior to this year, and outside the Top 8 in scoring in three straight.

On the other side of that same coin, this is also a much different Green Bay team than years past (for obvious reasons) following the departure of Aaron Rodgers. In Jordan Love’s first campaign under center, the Packers rank 18th in the league in scoring, and they’ve scored 20 points or less in seven of their last nine games. But similarly to Kansas City, Green Bay’s defense has sprung to life out of necessity as of late, having surrendered 20 points or less in four of their last seven games, now ranked Top 10 in the league in scoring at 20.4 PPG after propelling the team to wins in three of their last four.

According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, the under is 106-73-1 (59.2%) in all matchups this season — the best start through 12 weeks in the Wild Card era. The under is also 34-13 (72.3%) in stand alone matchups on the year, including 29-9 at night. And dating back to last year’s regular season, the under is 32-3 in the last 35 Sunday / Monday night games (excluding playoffs).

Not too long ago, we probably would’ve been calling for offensive fireworks in a matchup between these two teams. But unfortunately, the tale of the tape is much different now for both squads. Both offensive units rank outside the Top 10 in scoring, and both defenses rank inside the Top 10 – likely setting the stage for another defensive battle under the bright lights.

 I’m going to ride the wave with the primetime unders.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Packers 13
Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-110)

KC @ GB Odds

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Chiefs vs Packers Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, December 3, 2023
Matchup: AFC West vs. NFC North
Venue: Lambeau Field
Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 13 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup. Or check out our Superbowl odds for a preview of the teams likely to be in the big game.

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Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

As kickoff approaches, this is shaping up to be somewhat of a Pros vs. Joes matchup in the betting market. According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the spread for this contest originally opened at Chiefs -6.5 at TwinSpires, and since then has fallen to Chiefs -6 with roughly 48% of the money coming in on Green Bay to cover the number despite Kansas City taking 64% of spread tickets throughout the week.

The Chiefs are the far superior team in this matchup. However, historically speaking, getting tagged as a big favorite isn’t usually a great omen for Patrick Mahomes and company. As a favorite of 3.5 points or more, Mahomes owns a record of 36-40-1 ATS as opposed to a record of 20-7-1 ATS when favored by 3 points or less (or underdog). So, backing the Chiefs feels a little bit risky with KC falling on the former side of that line as six-point favorites on Sunday night.

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The total has gone UNDER in five of Green Bay's last six home games. (Getty)

Green Bay Packers Betting Analysis

The Packers are finally beginning to turn things around as they enter this week on a 3-1 run consisting of tough wins over the Lions, Chargers and Rams, as well as a loss to the Steelers – and while Jordan Love seems to be getting most of the praise after hanging 29 points on Detroit last week, the real story is the transformation of a defense that surrendered 24 PPG through the first four games of the season, and since then, has held opposing teams to just 18.3 PPG across a seven-game sample.

Chiefs vs Packers Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of KC's last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of GB's last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of GB's last six home games.
  • The Chiefs are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games.
  • The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against GB.

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  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
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