Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:58 AM
Passing Yard Props
12 Weeks of 2019 NFL Futures Predictions
Six weeks in and six weeks to go before that first NFL preseason game of 2019 kicks off, and as I've been saying since the outset, that first kickoff will be here before you know it. But six weeks can still be considered a very long time to wait, say for example if you were nearing the end of your first pregnancy and catching your breath after a few steps is becoming too common of an occurrence, so there is still plenty of time to cover what we need to before football fever really takes hold.
The first four weeks (links below) dealt with season win totals for a handful of teams throughout the league, while last week dealt with rookie of the year odds on both sides of the ball. This week the focus stays on the individual awards as it's all about the odds for which QB will finish the regular season with the most passing yards.
Regular Season Passing Yards Bet #1
Patrick Mahomes (+400)
This “award” has been owned by Drew Brees since he became a member of the New Orleans Saints, winning it five times in this decade alone, and two other times prior to that back in 2006 and 2008. And how would you describe the bulk of those seasons for the New Orleans Saints in general? Likely with some sort of description involving them being a “good, but not great” team that had a questionable defense more often then not, and won 8-11 games before flaming out early in the playoffs.
It's that type of general overview for a team that I believe is best to look for when considering who will end up leading the league in passing yards, because they've got to be a marginal winning team – thanks to all those passing yards – that needs to throw a lot – either because of a poor/unreliable running game or poor defense – and will either trail enough or be involved in plenty of 30+ point outings where they can't sit on the ball and drain the clock. A lot of those reasons would have applied to the 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers as it was Big Ben who finished the year with the most passing yards, as their defense took a step back, there was no LeVeon Bell in the backfield to rely upon, and they found themselves in their fair share of shootouts thanks to their defense taking a step back.
For 2019, it's that type of description that should fit the Kansas City Chiefs quite well, as they'll continue to put the ball in the hands of Mahomes, and even with coaching changes on the defensive end, it's probably not going to be enough to drastically improve a Chiefs defense that had numerous guys who tackled like they were bullfighting; get close enough up until the last second before you sidestep away.
With a first place schedule to deal with, the Chiefs are probably going to take at least a minor step back in the win column as well, and with opposing teams likely wanting to bleed the clock on offense themselves to keep Mahomes off the field for as long as possible, KC will have no choice but to air it out to try and keep up/catch up in games. He comes into the year as one of the favorites to win this award for a reason, and if the Chiefs end up finishing with a 9-7, 10-6 type record, we could see Mahomes run away with this title by a wide margin.
Regular Season Passing Yards Bet #2
Aaron Rodgers (+650)
I couldn't ignore the NFC QB's this year either, and in that conference, the team that may best fit the mold of a great 8-8 type candidate that is forced to throw the ball on 75% of their plays could likely be the Green Bay Packers. The fact that Aaron Rodgers contract alone forces the organization to go on the cheap around him, and/or on defense already suggests that the level of success the Packers will have largely depends on the success Aaron Rodgers has, and this organization has never hid from the fact that they only hand the ball off just to try and have seed planted in the opposing defense to keep them honest. Everyone knows that the ball is going to be in Rodgers' hands the majority of the time, and that's not a bad thing for a wager like this.
Even with four games against some of the better defenses in the league (Minnesota and Chicago), that shouldn't be a huge deterrent here as chances are the Packers will be playing from behind plenty in those games and will need Rodgers to lead them down the field. Even in frigid December temperatures out in Green Bay, the Packers haven't looked to reel in their pass-calling in recent seasons, and if the Packers are going to get back to playing post-season football, Rodgers will be the guy that leads them there with his arm.
Now, obviously Rodgers health can be considered a concern for a wager like this, and if he gets banged up all year and Green Bay finds themselves out of the playoff picture in the final month there is a good chance Rodgers ends up sitting the final few weeks. But if the fear of injury is really the only thing that's holding you back from making a play like this, that's probably fearing risk a little too much. The schedule, seasonal outlook, and overall skill Rodgers has are three great factors that line up in favor of making a play like this, and throughout everything Rodgers has done in his career, this is a title he's never been able to claim. 2019 could be the year he checks that off his bucket list.
NFL Win Total Predictions
1) Baltimore Ravens
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers
4 Atlanta Falcons
5) NFL ROY