Vegas Money Moves – Week 3

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Six new quarterbacks make starts this week that didn’t begin their games last week and the bookmakers have had to make adjustments on the fly of what the value of the starter is to the number relative to the back-up while also putting a price on public perception into the mix.   
“We didn’t do too much with the Giants QB change,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTamasso of their ratings. They went with the market going from the Buccaneers -4.5 to -6.5. “We did see some movement on the under going from 48.5 to 47.5.
“Eli (Manning) wasn’t doing anything for the offense so I think the move was good. Daniel Jones showed well in preseason.”
Jones did look very good in preseason and most figured this day was coming, but maybe not this quick. Manning’s poor play made the move justified.
“With news of Cam Newton being doubtful we moved the Panthers from -3 to the Cardinals being -1.5,” said DiTamasso. “We thought that was a good enough adjustment with Kyle Allen starting and we got pushed to -2, but it looks like it’s going to come back down.”    
Bet and Collete Podcast Newton’s foot is the reason he’s sitting out, but if watching his last game in a home loss to the Buccaneers it appeared his shoulder that was repaired in the offseason was the main reason for him being so inaccurate. 
Kyle Allen is in his second year with the Panthers and he looked decent in a Week 17 start last season at New Orleans, a 33-14 win with Drew Brees resting for the Saints.
Teddy Bridgewater started that game for the Saints and he’ll also be starting this week at Seattle for an injured Brees, who figures to be out the next six weeks.
“We’re going to need Bridgewater to play well because the Seahawks have become our biggest parlay game so far,” DiTamasso said. “I wasn’t too impressed with his play at Minnesota when he started and he didn’t do too much last week, either.”
CG books have the Seahawks -4.5 while most of the others in Las Vegas are solid -4’s     
The Steelers will also be with their QB and they’ll be without him all season.  Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) has the largest impact to the number among all six of the new starting QB’s this week.
“There’s a big adjustment, maybe 7 to 8-points, from Big Ben to Mason Rudolph,” DiTamasso said. “We were thinking Steelers -1 before he got hurt.”
The 49ers opened the season with two road wins and they’re a 6.5-point favorite for their home opener.
CG books opened Week 3 numbers Sunday with the Patriots being -16.5 and were bet up to -18. After New York Jets back-up QB Trevor Siemian got knocked out for the season with an ankle injury Monday night, third-stringer Luke Falk gets to make his first career start at New England with first-stringer Sam Darnold still 'out' with mono. The Patriots are now -22.5.
“We got some sharp play on the Jets at +23 so we know that’s the number that is seen as attractive if we get to high with Patriots money,” DiTamasso said.
The other new QB starting this week is Josh Rosen. The former UCLA player is getting the nod for the Dolphins, who are looking to shake things up. CG books have gone up from the Cowboys as 21-point home favorites to -23, but it’s not about Rosen, it’s about trying to find bettors willing to take the Dolphins and no one is biting, in the same manner, they are with the Jets.
The top sharp plays at CG books this week has been the Ravens at +6.5 and +6 for their huge AFC game at Kansas City. DiTamasso has the Chiefs at -5.5 but says he expects it to move back soon because the Chiefs are always an attractive play with the public.
“They’ve also bet the Texans with us at +3.5 (at Chargers), the Jets, and the Falcons at +2.5 and +2,” DiTamasso said.
CG books top-weighted parlays games are the Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers and Eagles.
Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said their top sharp bets this week has been the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers and their top public parlay games are the Patriots, Rams, and Cowboys.
The Rams play at Cleveland Sunday night and it’s likely to have the most impact on every book’s results as risk from all the earlier games pile on. CG is currently sitting Rams -3 (-120) like most books in Las Vegas while Stations is at -3.5 (EVEN) for the finale.   

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.

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