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NFL

TNF – 49ers at Cardinals

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
Bet and Collect Podcast

LAST WEEK

The 49ers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) remained the lone unbeaten team in the NFC by blowing out the Panthers, 51-13 to easily cash as 4 ½-point home favorites. Carolina not only entered last week’s affair at Levi’s Stadium off the bye, but the Panthers were riding a four-game winning streak before the Niners stormed out to a commanding 27-3 halftime advantage. Brand new 49ers’ wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders scored the first touchdown of the game on a four-yard reception from Jimmy Garoppolo as the former Bronco and Steeler finished his San Francisco debut with four receptions for 25 yards.

The day belonged to running back Tevin Coleman, who rushed for 105 yards and scored four touchdowns for the Niners, who totaled 232 yards on the ground as a team. Coleman reached the end zone twice during the first half scoring surge, capped off by a 48-yard touchdown scamper right past the two-minute warning for the 24-point edge. The 49ers busted the 40-point mark for the second time this season, as San Francisco posted 41 points in a Week 2 rout of Cincinnati, while limiting its fourth straight opponent to 13 points or fewer.

The Cardinals (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) entered the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on a three-game winning streak last Sunday, as Arizona has made plenty of strides after finishing 2018 with the league’s worst record at 3-13. However, the Cardinals ran into a buzz saw as the Saints won their sixth consecutive contest, 31-9, while also getting future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees back in the lineup after missing five games with a thumb injury.

Brees threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, while his counterpart, rookie Kyler Murray failed to throw a touchdown pass for the fourth time in five games. Murray has gone four straight games without being intercepted, but the top pick out of Oklahoma only posted 220 yards, while Arizona’s offense produced 10 first downs and 40 yards rushing. In the last two games against winning teams, Arizona has been outscored, 58-9, which includes a 27-10 home defeat to Seattle back in Week 4.

GETTING DEFENSIVE

San Francisco’s defense ranks first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (224.4) and sits second behind New England in points allowed per game (11.0). The 49ers have not given up more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 3 against Pittsburgh, while yielding 17 points or less in six of seven contests. The ‘under’ has hit in three in four games away from Levi’s Stadium, while allowing a total of seven points in the last two road wins against the Rams and Redskins.

Arizona’s defense has been shredded at home in four games at State Farm Stadium this season. The Cardinals have allowed 27 points to the Lions, 38 to the Panthers, 27 to the Seahawks, and 33 to the Falcons, while the only win at home came against Atlanta in a one-point triumph. Arizona was without its top player in the secondary for those four games as Patrick Peterson sat out due to a six-game suspension, as the former LSU standout will make his home season debut on Thursday.

SERIES HISTORY

Two of Arizona’s three wins last season came against San Francisco, but there are several asterisks involved in those victories. First, the 49ers did not have Garoppolo under center, as he missed these losses due to a torn ACL suffered in September. Secondly, San Francisco was tripped up at home despite outgaining Arizona by 227 yards and committing five turnovers, while blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead in the second matchup in Arizona.

Josh Rosen led the Cardinals past the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, 28-18 as three-point underdogs, but the biggest disappointment belonged to ‘under’ backers. The total closed at 40 ½ as Arizona led San Francisco, 14-6 heading to the fourth quarter, but the two NFC West rivals combined for 26 points in the final seven minutes, including a fumble return for a touchdown by Arizona.

San Francisco jumped out to a 15-3 advantage in Glendale three weeks later as 2 ½-point road favorites, but Rosen marched the Cardinals to a pair of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, capped off by a nine-yard scoring strike to Christian Kirk for the go-ahead score with 34 second remaining. The Niners went with C.J. Beathard in those two games in place of Garoppolo at quarterback, as the former University of Iowa signal-caller threw for 190 yards (55 of which on a touchdown pass to Marquise Goodwin.

Arizona has captured five consecutive home meetings with San Francisco dating back to 2014, while beating San Francisco in eight straight matchups. The Niners edged the Cardinals, 23-20 in 2013 for their last win in the desert, while dominating Arizona, 24-3 in 2012 for their last victory as a road favorite (-7) in the series.

THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Underdogs have cashed in six of eight Thursday night games this season, including the Redskins covering as 16 ½-point ‘dogs in last week’s 19-9 defeat at Minnesota. However, the favorite has won the last four Thursday contests, while road favorites are 1-1 SU/ATS in these games, as Tennessee lost at Jacksonville in Week 3 and Kansas City blasted Denver in Week 7.

San Francisco last appeared on a Thursday night came in 2018 as the 49ers routed the rival Raiders, 34-3 at Levi’s Stadium. Arizona would certainly like to forget its past time in the Thursday spotlight as the Broncos destroyed the Cardinals, 45-10 last season as one-point home underdogs.

TOTAL TALK

The total on this game opened at 44 and the number has dropped to 43 as of Thursday. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on the midweek matchup.

“The success of the 49ers turnaround has been their defense and it’s truly amazing that this year’s unit is allowing 11 PPG while the club gave up 27.2 PPG last season. That production has translated into plenty of ‘under’ tickets even though the San Francisco offense has put up some crooked numbers at times, which includes last week’s 51-13 dominating home win over Carolina. I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco light up the scoreboard again, knowing Arizona is ranked 29th in both scoring defense (27.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (407.1 YPG). The team total on the 49ers is hovering around 26 ½ points, which seems a tad low in my opinion. Especially when you know Arizona has allowed 27-plus points in all four of its home games this season,” said David.

San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 on the season, which includes a 3-1 mark away from home. Meanwhile, Arizona’s total results have been a stalemate at 4-4 but the high side has gone 3-1 in its four games from the desert. This series has leaned to the ‘under’ with the low side cashing in four of the last five encounters. The averaged combined points in those games was 37 PPG between the pair.

David dug up a solid season angle to watch on this matchup and it could have you leaning to the ‘under’ in this divisional contest. He said, “The 49ers will likely close -10 or higher and if that’s the case, they’ll be the 19th team that is listed as a double-digit favorite this season. When you see teams laying heavy points in the NFL, most bettors would side with the favorite-over combo since a wire-to-wire blowout is expected. That hasn’t been the case though. Rather, it’s the defensive units that have carried the ‘chalky’ clubs so far. In the 18 games, the ‘under’ has gone 14-4 and that includes a 5-0 record last week.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on the quarterback matchup between Murray and Garoppolo, “Murray ranks 23rd in the league in QB Rating, but that is only a few spots behind Garoppolo. Murray has only seven passing touchdowns and hasn’t been a big play threat with just 6.8 yards per attempt, with Arizona’s offense often settling for field goals with Zane Gonzalez tied for first in the NFL with 21 made 3-pointers. Garroppolo has a nearly 70 percent completion rate but he has only nine touchdown passes along with seven interceptions as he doesn’t have the profile of a 7-0 signal-caller.”

The 49ers have been a surprise in the loaded NFC, but Nelson dug deeper into their schedule and it’s easy to see why they have been successful, “The first six wins for the 49ers came against teams that currently have a 13-32 record. The dominant performance against the Rams stood out but last week’s blowout win over a surging Carolina team has most finally paying attention to San Francisco as a top NFC contender. Facing a short week as a road favorite in a division game will be a different role for the team and certainly the back half of the 2019 schedule is much tougher than the front half still playing Seattle twice plus games with the Packers, Ravens, and Saints in succession.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Over 19 ½ (-110)
Under 19 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Over 1 ½ (-130)
Under 1 ½ (+110)

Total Rushing Yards – Tevin Coleman (SF)
Over 75 ½ (-110)
Under 75 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – George Kittle (SF)
Over 68 ½ (-110)
Under 68 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Kyler Murray (ARZ)
Over 227 ½ (-110)
Under 227 ½ (-110)

Will the Cardinals get a rushing touchdown?
Yes +150
No -180

Total Receiving Yards – Christian Kirk (ARZ)
Over 56 ½ (-110)
Under 56 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The 49ers opened up as 8 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas on Monday with a total of 44. Rewinding back to May when CG Technologies first opened up lines on every NFL game, San Francisco was listed as a three-point favorite. The Niners have jumped to a 10-point favorite at both Westgate and CG, while the total has slipped to 42 ½.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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