Hot & Not Report – Week 11Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL Winners on VegasInsider.com from Matt Blunt. Click to win!
Week of November 11th
Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.
Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.
With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.
Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.
NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the yearChalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.
And in today's edge of NFL being an “Any given Sunday” type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.
A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss – unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather – and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense – for whatever reason – the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.
For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.
Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts – Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent – are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.
Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.
And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get “right” again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.
I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.
During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.
There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars – now that QB Nick Foles is back – would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...
Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU winBy definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call “bad” teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.
I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.
Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.
Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent – Washington – found there way into the “Hot” part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.
Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills – the Browns went into “force feed Odell Beckham mode” and it ruined the entire flow of the offense – is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.
Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.
Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).
I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.
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