Total Talk – Week 11

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It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season, and it's hard to believe we have less than two months until the postseason begins. We're also hurtling toward Thanksgiving, too, when we'lll have the three Thursday games. But first things first, Week 11 features some very important battles. After Thursday's explosive matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns, the intensity appears to be ratcheting up with the pressure. The TNF game ended up going 'under', snapping a six-game 'over' streak in primetime games, the longest such run of the season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 10 7-6 6-7 6-7
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 72-75-1 71-76-1 66-78-4

The books crushed it again in Week 10, but again that was mostly due to sides. The totals were just 7-6 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

The half totals were very consistent, going 7-6 in favor of the 'under' last week. Here are the overall numbers this season for both the first-half (76-71-1) and second-half (78-66-4)

Division Bell

In the five divisional battles in Week 10, three went over - including the Monday nighter between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. The under is now 25-20 (55.6%) in divisional games this season, which includes Thursday's Steelers-Browns result.

Divisional Game Results Week 10
L.A. Chargers at Oakland Over (49) Oakland 26, L.A. Chargers 24
Atlanta at New Orleans Under (51.5) Atlanta 26, New Orleans 9
Baltimore at Cincinnati Over (44.5) Baltimore 49, Cincinnati 13
Detroit at Chicago Under (38) Chicago 20, Detroit 13
Seattle at San Francisco Over (47) Seattle 27, San Francisco 24

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Carolina: 54 to 49 ½
Dallas at Detroit: 51 to 47 ½ 
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (MNF): 49 to 52
Houston at Baltimore: 49 to 51 ½
Chicago at L.A. Rams (SNF): 42 to 40
Denver at Minnnesota: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Chicago at L.A. Rams: Under 94%
Houston at Baltimore: Over 91%
Atlanta at Carolina: Under 83%
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 81%
Denver at Minnesota: Over 79%
Arizona at San Francisco: Under 76%
Cincinnati at Oakland: Under 75%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (73 percent) in the New England at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in N.Y. Jets at Washington (72 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 11

Week 10 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-2 19-25
NFC vs. NFC 2-1 17-16
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 15-12-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 22-21

Other Week 11 Action

Dallas at Detroit: The Lions turn to QB Jeff Driskel again with QB Matthew Stafford (back) still on the shelf. The Lions have been experiencing plenty of injuries on offense, although they still should be able to do enough to go 'over' in this one. The defense has been atrocious, actually making Chicago's Mitch Trubisky look like an NFL-caliber signal caller. The over has hit in three of four games at Ford Field this season, and the defense has allowed 34, 42 and 26 points in those three over results. As road favorites, the Cowboys have posted 37 and 31 in their wins and 22 and 10 in two losses.  

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The Saints and Bucs square off at Raymond James Stadium. The first meeting in New Orleans back on Oct. 6 cashed the over, with the Saints winning 31-24. The over has hit in three of the past four in this series. Tampa Bay ranks dead-last against the pass, allowing 298.9 yards per game. New Orleans should enter this game angry after being held to just nine points in their stunning loss at home against the Falcons last week. The over is 9-3 in the past 12 for New Orleans after a straight-up loss, while the over is 7-3 in Tampa's past 10 after a straight-up win. The over is also 7-3 in the past 10 for the Bucs inside the division.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Panthers host the Falcons, who stunned the Saints in NOLA last week in an 'under' result. The under also hit in the Panthers game in the snow on the road against the Packers. In this NFC South battle, the under has ruled over the past 12 outings, going 9-3. That includes a 5-1 under mark in the past six battles at Bank of America Stadium, with the outlier Dec. 24, 2016 when the Falcons won 33-16 to cash over tickets by a half-point. The Falcons have actually hit the under in five straight against winning teams, while the under is 5-2 for the Panthers in the past seven against losing sides.

 N.Y. Jets at Washington: There are just three wins in between the Jets and Redskins in the most unattractive game of the weekend. However, the winning tickets cash just the same. The over has connected in each of the past three for Gang Green, as they have averaging 22.3 PPG during the span while allowing 27.3 PPG. In fact, the Jets have allowed 22 or more points each of their past eight outings. Overall the Jets rank 25th in the NFL with 26.4 PPG allowed. However, their offense hasn't exactly been on point, ranking 32nd in total yards and passing yards, 31st in rushing yards and 30th in points scored at 14.4 PPG. The Redskins are also 30th in total yards and 31st in passing yards per game, while ranking dead-last in points scored (12.0 PPG). The lack of offense is why this game is the lowest total on the board, and only game under 40.

Buffalo at Miami: The Bills and Dolphins met on Oct. 20, with the Bills winning a 31-21 decision in a game which cashed well over. The previous two meetings at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami have produced a pair of under results, with the Bills averaging 19.5 PPG and the Dolphins averaging 18.5 PPG in those two battles. However, the over is 7-2 in the past nine in this series. Miami's defense has gotten better, allowing just 15 PPG in their past two games, and after posting 10, 0, 6, 10 in their first four outings, they're averaging 18.6 PPG across the past five games. The Dolphins still have a ways to go before they are considered a juggernaut, but they have been improving. Their 21 points in the loss in Buffalo was their second-highest production of the season.

Houston at Baltimore: The highest total on the board for Sunday's slate will be a rematch of QBs DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, as these guys met in a memorable Louisville-Clemson battle in college. The Texans are coming off a bye after playing their last game in London, a 26-3 win over the Jags. If you're playing the 'London system', you'll want to play the over in this one. In the past two seasons the over is 9-3 for NFL teams playing in their first game back after a London game. As an added bonus, teams are 3-8-1 ATS in the past 12 after playing in the UK, which includes losses by both the Bengals and Rams last week.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The London system also applies in this one, as the Jags are back after a bye following their London game. The over/under split last season between these two divisional rivals, with the lowest scoring in the NFL last season, a 6-0 decision in favor of the Jags. The over hit in the meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 11, a 29-26 victory going to the Colts. That was a rarity, however, as the under has hit in seven of the past eight battles in Indianapolis, and four of the past five meetings overall. If you're an under bettor, you'll like the fact the under is a perfect 6-0 in Jacksonville's past six against winning sides and 13-5 in Indy's past 18 games inside the division. The under is also 13-3 in the past 16 when the Colts are rebounding from a straight-up loss. The good news for the Colts is that QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is back under center. The over is actually 5-3 in Brissett's eight starts this season, with the under 1-0 in the game he missed last Sunday. And remember, London!

New England at Philadelphia: The Patriots and Eagles are each well rested after byes last week. New England's offense is usually well prepared after a bye, hitting the 'over' in six of the past seven following a week of rest. The under has been the dominant trend for the Pats this season, and really over the past two, cashing in 15 of the past 21 overall and five of the past six road games. The under is 12-5 in the past 17 for the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, while going 9-2 in the past 11 at home against teams with a winning road record. Philly's defense was very impressive in two games before the break, allowing just 13 and 14, and they have yielded just 20 total points in the past two home outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 11, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 40 ½ to 48 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have cashed the over in four of the past five outings, although the under cashed in their only game as a double-digit favorite back on Oct. 24 in a 19-9 win over the Redskins. The Vikings have faced two AFC West foes to date, scoring 34 and 23, hitting the 'over' in each contest. The under is 3-1 in Denver's four games on the road this season, splitting 1-1 in the first two against NFC North foes. As far as being a double-digit underdog, there isn't much to glean from this. Denver hasn't been a 'dog by more than 10 points in over a decade.

Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. ET): The Cards and 49ers just met on Halloween, and it was a treat for over bettors. Arizona gave San Francisco a hard time, just coming up short 28-25 in an 'over' result. The over has hit in three in a row for San Francisco, scoring 51, 28 and 24 while allowing 13, 25 and 27. It's quite the turnaround after a 5-1 'under' starts for Frisco. The over in 6-1 in the past seven for Arizona when coming off a straight-up loss, and 5-1 in San Francisco's past six inside the division. The Niners are coming off their first loss of the season, and the 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight following a straight-up loss, although we haven't see that happen this season.

Cincinnati at Oakland (4:25 p.m. ET): The Bengals and Raiders lock horns in the Black Hole, and this line ballooned to double digits in rather quick fashion. If you remember the "Thursday Night Football" system, the system tells you to play the over. The system is 6-3 in nine games, and was a winner last week with an over in the Cards-Bucs battle. While the over is the play if you follow the system, be careful. Cincinnati's offense is in flux, and following a move to QB Ryan Finley they look like they wanted to go with a more ground-based attack. RB Joe Mixon saw 30 carries to buoy the offense, and Finley just didn't look terribly sharp. The Raiders rank 10th against the run, so the Bengals might want to consider airing it out more. Oakland ranks 30th against the pass, allowing 285.3 yards per game.

Under the Lights

Chicago at L.A. Rams (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle between the Bears and Rams is expected to be a low-scoring affair. The Los Angeles defense hasn't been hitting on all cylinders lately. They're averaging just 20 PPG across the past four outings, and the defense is yielding just 14.3 PPG during the span. It's no surprise that the under is a perfect 4-0 during the span. In four games at the L.A. Coliseum this season, the under is 3-1, with the outlier that insane 55-40 loss against the Bucs back on Sept. 29. The Bears enter on a 3-0 under run, and they have scored 21 or fewer points in seven of their nine outings. Two of Chicago's three over results have come on the road this season, however, including a primetime game Sept. 23 in Washington. 

Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Chiefs and Chargers hook up at Estadio Azteca in Ciudad de Mexico. We've seen two Mexico games in the past, with the over/under splittng 1-1. We were supposed to have the Chiefs and Rams hook up last Nov. 19, but that game was moved to L.A. due to unsafe field conditions in Mexico City. Since QB Pat Mahomes took the reins of the offense, the over is 10-3 with the Chiefs in away games, averaging a robust 36.3 PPG. He scorched the Bolts for six touchdown passes last season, and over the past three years Kansas City is averaging 31.6 PPG against the AFC West divisional rivals. The over has inched up from 49.5 to 52, and is now the highest on the board. This game will be played at an elevation of 7,200 feet, well above the Mile High elevation these teams are used to in trips to Denver each season.

Fearless Predictions

It was a nightmare in Week 10 as far as totals, as I hit my missed on all three of my top picks, and also chunked on the teaser. A result of (-$430) was the worst showing of the season The deficit is now back up to (-$715) for the season. We'll look to keep it bounce back in Week 11, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Dallas-Detroit 47
Best Under: Denver-Minnesota 40 ½
Best First-Half Over: Dallas-Detroit 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Under 50 ½ Jacksonville-Indianapolis
Over 42 ½ New Orleans-Tampa Bay
Over 40 Dallas-Detroit

CD's Best Bets

Chris David was cooled off with a 1-2 record in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 17-13 (57%) on the season.  For this week's Podcast, CD focused on divisional matchups and two seasonal systems that are in play for Sunday.

CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on the below three games:

Dallas at Detroit
Denver at Minnesota
Kansas City at L.A. Chargers

Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 44:10 of Episode 20

Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI

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