Total Talk – Week 12

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It's Week 12 of the National Football League regular season, as we're rounding the corner and heading for home. This is the final week of bye weeks for teams, and we'll have Thanksgiving next week with three Thursday battles. The Week 12 schedule started off with an AFC South defensive slog, as the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans battle saw the total cash 'under' tickets

What will we see this week, as the books look to bounce back after the public cashed big in Week 11.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-7 5-9 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 79-82-1 76-85-1 72-86-4

The totals ended up going 7-7 last week, with the 'under' remaining slightly ahead (82-79-1) for the season. It looked like the 'over' was going to dominate the weekend early on, but the late-game window saw the 'under' go 2-1, with the Sunday night and Monday night games also going well under.

The 'under' went 9-5 in the first half and bettors chasing 'over' tickets came up short as the low side produced an 8-6 mark in the second-half. On the season, here are the overall numbers for both the first-half (76-85-1) and second-half (72-86-4)

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 11, the slight edge went to the 'over' - although the highly-anticipated AFC West showdown in Mexico City on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca cashed low. The under is now 29-24 (54.7%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's result between the Colts and Texans.

Divisional Game Results Week 11
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (41.5) Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Over (50.5) New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17
Atlanta at Carolina Under (49) Atlanta 29, Carolina 3
Jacksonville at Indianapolis Over (42) Indianapolis 33, Jacksonville 13
Buffalo at Miami Over (41.5) Buffalo 37, Miami 20
Arizona at San Francisco Over (44) San Francisco 36, Arizona 26
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers Under (53) Kansas City 24, L.A. Chargers 17

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at San Francisco (SNF): 44 to 48
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 54 ½ to 51 ½ 
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (MNF): 49 to 46 ½
Carolina at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ½
Dallas at New England: 42 to 40
Denver at Buffalo: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Seattle at Philadelphia: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 87%
Denver at Buffalo: Over 83%
Detroit at Washington: Under 80%
Miami at Cleveland: Over 77%
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 75%
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: Under 70%
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (66 percent) in the Seattle at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Jacksonville at Tennessee (63 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 12

Week 11 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 4-3 23-28
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 18-17
AFC vs. AFC 0-2 15-14-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1 24-22

Other Week 12 Action

Denver at Buffalo: The lowest total on the board will feature a little Allen-on-Allen crime. Quarterback Brandon Allen starts for the Broncos, while QB Josh Allen is the man in Buffalo, no relation. The Broncos have hit the 'under' in six of 10 games overall, and 3-2 in five games on the road. They're just 27th in the NFL with 17.2 points per game on offense, while ranking eighth in the NFL with 19.7 points per game allowed. They're averaging just 19.6 PPG on the road in five games, slightly higher than their overall mark. The Bills were the last team to hit an 'over', as the 'under' cashed in their first five. The under is just 3-2 in their past five games, but two of those games were high-scoring offensive performances against the lowly Dolphins. In the other three games against Philly, Washington and Cleveland during that five-game span, the offense is sputtering, averaging just 17.7 PPG.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers blasted the Bengals 27-3 back in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, as the 'under' easily connected in that game. For the Bengals, the 'over' is actually 3-1 in their four home games, although they have scored just 17, 23, 17 and 13. It's their defense which has been trampled at Paul Brown Stadium, yielding 41, 26, 27 and 49. The Steelers have had their issues on the road this season, and the 'under' is actually a perfect 4-0 away from the Steel City. They scored just three points in Week 1 at New England, and seven last time out on Thursday in Cleveland. They'll be without center Maurkice Pouncey due to suspension from that Browns brawl in Week 11, so will that affect the offense? Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone 'under.'

N.Y. Giants at Chicago: The Giants have struggled offensively with 322.2 total yards per game, ranking 24th, and they're a rather middling 22nd with 20.3 PPG. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season for the G-Men, averaging 23.2 PPG, and the Giants have gone over in each of their past three games. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, allowing 27 or more point in six consecutive outings. Will that mean Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally rolls up big offensive numbers against someone? The 'under' has hit in four straight for Chicago, as they're averaging 14.3 PPG during that four-game span. Their biggest production was a 20-point outburst in a win against the Lions at home, which is where they'll be Sunday. The Bears have posted 25, 16 and 20 in their past three at home, while allowing an average of 22.0 PPG in the past three at Soldier Field.

 Oakland at N.Y. Jets: The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed at 370.0, and they're a dismal 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 264.1. It could be the perfect storm for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who had a career-high four touchdown strikes last week in Washington. In their four road games this season the Raiders have hit the 'over' three times, and they have posted at least 24 points in each of the past three. The defense is surrendering 31.8 PPG in their four games away from home, giving up at least 24 points in each of those games. The Jets have looked like a functional offense in the past two weeks, posting 34 points in each game, two wins. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-1 in the past six. In the past four games at home New York is allowing an average of 26.3 PPG.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have picked up victories in their past two outings, both divisional games, and it's their surprising defense which has led the mini resurgence. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in the two-game winning streak while the defense has only coughed up just four field goals. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four overall for the Falcons, too, all against NFC opponents. For the Buccaneers, they're seventh in total yards (380.4) per game while posting 27.7 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL. They're allowing 371.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're still dead-last in the NFL with 31.3 PPG. The Bucs have coughed up 27 or more points in eight straight games, and the 'over' has hit in each of those outings, the longest 'over' streak in the league so far this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Atlanta, too.

Detroit at Washington: The Lions declared QB Matthew Stafford (back) out for Sunday due to tiny fractures in his lower back, so QB Jeff Driskel makes another start. The offense didn't skip a beat last week in a 35-27 loss against the Cowboys at Ford Field, and they should be able to gain plenty of yards against a Redskins defense allowing 25.3 PPG, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The 'Skins allowed 34 to the Jets last week, and tied for their most points scored (17) since Week 2. It was their first 'over' results, snapping a 6-0 under run. The 'over' is actually 3-2 for the Redskins at home, with the defense yielding 31, 31, 33, 9 (in the mud and rain) and 34. We'll see if the Lions can add to their misery, and the conditions will be clear on Sunday.

Seattle at Philadelphia: The public has been pushing the total down in the Seattle-Philly battle on Sunday. Seattle plays its fourth out of five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The travel hasn't seemed to affect their offense, as they have scored 28, 32 and 27 in their previous three trips east, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. They have allowed 26, 28 and 20 in those games, too. Meanwhile, Philly had hit the 'under' in each of their past three home games after the 'over' cashed in the first two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defense has come to play in the past three at home, allowing just 6, 14 and 17, or an average of 12.3 PPG during the span. The Seahawks are listed as underdogs for the fourth time this season, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in those three games while the 'over' has connected in each of the outings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars were trampled on the road last week in Indy, falling 33-13 despite the fact they got QB Nick Foles back from injury. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five games against divisional foes for the Jags, but that lone over was last week. These teams met in Week 3 from Jacksonville, a 20-7 win by the Jags. However, there isn't much to glean from that matchup since the starting quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota are now the backups. Since taking over for Mariota, QB Ryan Tannehill has helped the Titans post 23, 27, 20 and 35, hitting the 'over' in all four games. The defense is allowing 26.3 PPG during the span, giving up 20, 23, 30 and 32. The 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in Nashville. The Titans are playing with rest and Mike Vrabel's team posted a 28-14 road win over Dallas last season off the bye, his first situation coaching with a break.

Dallas at New England: The Cowboys hit the road for Foxboro, and it's a big measuring stick game. Dallas is No. 1 in total offensive yards per game (444.6), passing yards per game (312.7) and fourth in points scored (28.6). As such, the over is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Cowboys. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (249.9) and points allowed (10.8). In their lone loss in Baltimore, they allowed 37 points on the road in Week 9. However, at home the Patriots have yielded 3, 14, 14 and 13, with the offense actually allowed 14 of those points on two defensive touchdowns by the Jets. The New England defense has really allowed just 7.5 PPG in four home games, so the Cowboys have their hands full. In three games against the NFC East, New England is allowing 10.3 PPG, hitting the 'under' in two of those outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are two games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 12, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 46 to 46 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Thursday Night system is just 6-4 (60%) so far. The team playing at home in the previous 10 TNF games has hit the 'over' in six over in their next game. The Browns were the home in 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call it, so they're next up to keep the TNF system going. The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar spot this season, a double-digit underdog. It's the seventh time they're an underdog of 10 or more points, and the 'under' is 5-1 in those six games. And after a 2-1 'over' start at FirstEnergy Stadium in the first three, the Browns have hit the 'under' in each of the past two.

Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The honeymoon is over with QB Kyle Allen...or it's actually not 'over', but 'under'. The Panthers offense is averaging just 9.5 PPG over the past two, and they have 13, 30, 16 and 3 across their 1-3 SU/ATS run in the past four games, hitting the under three times during the span. The Saints bounced back with 34 points in Tampa last week, hitting the 'over' for the second time in three NFC South games. The Saints defense ranks sixth in total yards allowed (318.3) and third in rushing yards allowed (85.3), while allowing 19.9 PPG to rank 12th in the NFL. At home, the 'under' is 3-2 in five games in the Superdome. As a double-digit favorite, the Saints have hit the 'under' in both outings. Make a note that Allen's first career start came at New Orleans last season in Week 17 and the Panthers captured a 33-14 road win. 

Under the Lights

Green Bay at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Packers hit the road for Levi's Stadium, and the Pack hope their trip to the West Coast goes better than their last visit. They fell 26-11 in Week 10 againts the Chargers, and it would have been a season low had they not scored a late touchdown with a two-point conversion. It's a rarity that the Packers are underdogs. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in those two previous outings this season, with the over/under splitting 1-1. For the 49ers, they're allowing 20, 3, 13, 27 and 26 at home,  with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three at home, and 4-0 in the past four overall. The defense has allowed 25 or more points in three straight, showing some chinks in the armor.

Baltimore at L.A. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Rams offense has struggled, posting a rather middling 366.5 total yards per game on offense to rank 13th, and they're 11th with 24.3 PPG scored. Defensively, they rank fifth in the NFL with just 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed, but it's a whole other animal trying to shut down QB Lamar Jackson. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time this season, and the 'over' cashed in that only previous outing. Los Angeles has had a power outage on offense lately, posting just 12 and 17 in the past two against the Steelers and Bears, whole allowing just 11 PPG across the past four. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for Los Angeles.

Fearless Predictions

I was able to rebound in Week 11 after a nightmare result in Week 10. A result of (+225) was one of the better showings of the season, but I have been unable to sweep all three ends and the teaser so far. The chase continues into Week 12 for that first sweep. The deficit is back down to (-$490) for the season. We'll look to keep it bounce back in Week 12, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Tennessee 41 ½
Best Under: Atlanta-Tampa Bay 51 ½
Best First-Half Over: Detroit-Washington 20 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 33 ½ Detroit-Washington
Over 40 Oakland-N.Y. Jets
Under 55 Green Bay-San Francisco

CD's Best Bets

Chris David was squeezed again (his words) in Week 11. He went 1-2 for the second straight week with his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 18-15 (55%) on the season.  For this week's Podcast, CD focuses on two of the lower totals on the board for Sunday. 

CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on the below three games:

Oakland at N.Y. Jets
Denver at Buffalo
N.Y. Giants at Chicago

Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 36:04 of Episode 22

Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI

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