Betting Recap – Week 14

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Broncos (+8, ML +350) at Texans, 38-24
Bears (+3, ML +145) vs. Cowboys (Thu.), 31-24
Chiefs (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 23-16

The largest favorite to cover
Vikings (-12) vs. Lions, 20-7
Browns (-6.5) vs. Bengals, 27-19 
Ravens (-6) at Bills, 24-17

It's a LOCK!

-- The Denver Broncos (+8) have turned the keys over to rookie QB Drew Lock and he led the biggest upset of the weekend with a surprising 38-24 win on the road over the Houston Texans. It was a surprise going by pregame preview, and the line, only. If you watched the game, it was a thorough beatdown in favor of the visitors. The Broncos fired out to a 21-0 lead with 11:24 to go in the second quarter, as the Broncos had two TD passes for Lock and a 70-yard fumble recovery for touchdown. They took a surprising 38-3 lead at halftime, and they held a 38-3 lead at 9:15 of the third quarter before the Texans found the end zone midway through the third. The Broncos are 2-0 SU/ATS with Lock under center, and they're 5-1 ATS across the past six with the over 4-1 in the past five outings. Denver is also 7-2 ATS across the past nine contests.

Total Recall

-- There were three games with totals of 48 or greater -- Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots (49), Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons (48) and the Sunday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams (48). Only one of those games managed to go 'over', as the Falcons beat up on the Panthers 40-20. Atlanta led just 3-0 after 15 minutes, but the Falcons ended up posting 10 or more points in each of the final three quarters, and the Panthers also hit double digits in the second and fourth. The Chiefs and Patriots appeared headed for a high-scoring affair, totaling 27 points in the first half, but there were a total of just 12 points in the final 30 minutes. The same held true in the Seahawks-Rams affair, with 24 total points on the board at halftime, but just 16 total points in the final two quarters.

There were three games at 42.5 or lower on Sunday, with Denver Broncos-Houston Texans (42.5), Los Angeles Chargers-Jacksonville Jaguars (42) and Washington Redskins-Green Bay Packers (42) saw the over hit in two of the outings, with the Chargers taking care of business themselves, 45-10. We mentioned the Broncos, and their prolific offensive effort above. Only the Redskins and Packers hit the under, totaling just 35 points. The Packers fired out of the chute at 14-0 after one quarter, but we had just two touchdowns and three field goals the rest of the way.

 The Pittsburgh Steelers-Arizona Cardinals (43.5) ended up with 23 points in the first half, but just 17 points in the second half. A turnover in the end zone in the second half by QB Kyler Murray was rather costly, and he made some real rookie mistakes in this one which likely prevented this game from going over. That's five straight under results for the Steelers, seven in the past eight, and 10-3 in their 13 games overall this season.

The 'over' connected in the Thursday game between the Dallas Cowboys-Chicago Bears (43), while the Seahawks-Rams game on SNF and New York Giants-Philadelphia Eagles (45) games each hit under. The 'over' is just 16-27 (37.2%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead - Division Matchups

-- The Eagles and Redskins tangle in D.C., a rematch of their Week 1 affair. The Eagles won that opener by a 32-27 at Lincoln Financial Field, failing to cover a 10-point number as the 'over' (44) easily hit. The Redskins saw the 'over' hit in their first three games this season, but the 'under' is 8-2 across the past 10, including 3-1 in the previous four at home.

-- The Texans and Tennessee Titans square off in a key AFC South Division battle, and it got that much more important following Houston's complete failure at home against the lowly Broncos. The Texans are just 2-5 ATS across the past seven games overall, and they're 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against teams with a winning overall mark. The Texans are also 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division. For the Titans, they have covered four in a row, they're 3-0-1 ATS in the past four at home and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five as a favorite.

-- The Broncos and Chiefs do battle on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET, and suddenly Denver looks alive and well with Lock under center. The Chiefs looked alive and well going on the road and exacting revenge for their AFC Championship Game loss, topping the Patriots at Gillette. While Denver has been hot lately, they're still just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 games inside the division. The under is also 8-1-1 in the past 10 games inside the division. Denver is 1-7 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Chiefs, but 7-3 ATS in their past 10 trips to Kansas City. The over is 5-2-2 in the past nine meetings, including 3-0-1 in the past four at Arrowhead.

-- The Bears and Packers renew acquaintances at Lambeau Field. They met back in Week 1 on Thursday night with the Packers scratching out a 10-3 win in a defensive battle. The under is 3-3 at home, and 3-3 on the road, for the Packers so far this season, so not much to glean there. The under is 8-5 for the Bears this season, with the over/under at 3-3 on the road. The Bears have cashed in just two of the past nine overall, but they did cover at home as three-point 'dogs against the Cowboys on TNF last week. Still, they're 0-4 ATS in the past four on the road. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record, but they're just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 inside the division.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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