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NFL

Sunday Blitz – Week 16

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
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GAMES TO WATCH

Saints (-2, 49 ½) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST

The team that will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl is anybody’s guess. The same can be said on who will have home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs as Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, and New Orleans all own identical 11-4 records with two games remaining. The Saints (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) have already wrapped up the NFC South title, but New Orleans is seeking at least a first-round bye as it needs to win out and receive some help as it loses tiebreakers with San Francisco and Green Bay.

New Orleans is eyeing a perfect 4-0 mark against the AFC South after routing Indianapolis this past Monday, 34-7 to easily cash as eight-point favorites. Quarterback Drew Brees broke Peyton Manning’s all-time passing touchdowns record with four touchdown tosses, while the Saints avoided back-to-back losses for the first time since 2017. The Saints hit the highway for the final two games of the season (next week at Carolina), as New Orleans owns a solid 5-1 SU/ATS road mark with the lone loss coming to the Rams in Week 2 when Brees sustained a thumb injury.

The Titans (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) were dealt a huge blow to their playoff hopes after falling to the Texans at home last Sunday, 24-21. Tennessee suffered its first home loss with Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback in five tries, while its OVER streak of seven straight games ended. The Titans can still make the playoffs with a pair of wins and at least one Pittsburgh loss, as Tennessee enters Sunday’s action by owning a 4-2 SU/ATS record as a home underdog under head coach Mike Vrabel, which includes a 35-32 triumph over Kansas City in Week 10.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Saints 24

Steelers (-3, 37) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

In spite of falling to the Bills last Sunday night, the Steelers (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) are still in a prime spot to grab the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh has allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games, while the UNDER has cashed in six consecutive contests. The Steelers are sticking with quarterback Devlin Hodges in spite of him throwing four interceptions against Buffalo, as Pittsburgh has won three of its past four games away from Heinz Field.

The Jets (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS) have caught fire at home recently by winning four of their past five games at MetLife Stadium. Running back Le’Veon Bell squares off against his former team for the first time on Sunday, as the ex-Steeler has racked up only 676 yards on the ground, compared to back-to-back nearly 1,300-yard seasons in 2016 and 2017. The Jets have not defeated a team with a winning record this season as New York is coming off a 42-21 setback at Baltimore in Week 15, ending a three-game ATS hot streak in the underdog role.

Pittsburgh has taken care of its business against teams with losing records this season by compiling a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark, while going 2-0 SU/ATS in the role of a road favorite. The Jets own a 3-1 SU/ATS record in the past four opportunities as a home underdog, with the lone loss coming to the Patriots in Week 7. Pittsburgh is facing New York on the road for the first time since 2014, while the Steelers won the previous matchup with the Jets in 2016 at Heinz Field.

Best Bet: Steelers 16, Jets 14

Cowboys (-2, 45 ½) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST

The NFC East title comes down to Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field between a pair of 7-7 teams. Dallas (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) can wrap up the division championship with a victory as it would own the tiebreaker over Philadelphia. The Cowboys ended a three-game skid in last Sunday’s 44-21 rout of the Rams, as Dallas scored 30 unanswered points after the game was tied at 7-7. Dallas ran all over the L.A. defense for 263 yards, the most yards on the ground for the Cowboys since Week 9 against the Giants (172 yards).

The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) were 5-7 two weeks ago, but victories over the Giants and Redskins have put them in a position to win the NFC East. Two wins for Philadelphia and it clinches the division, but the Eagles have not been convincing the last two games as they rallied from a 17-0 deficit to shock the Giants in overtime, followed by the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute to beat Washington. However, the Eagles did cover as seven-point favorites thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown as time expired for a 37-27 triumph, snapping a four-game ATS slide.

Dallas has won eight consecutive division battles against NFC East foes, while posting a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Included in that flawless mark is the 37-10 rout by Dallas at AT&T Stadium in Week 7 as three-point home favorites. Dallas is riding a four-game hot streak against Philadelphia since 2017, which includes victories at Lincoln Financial Field in each of the past two seasons.

Best Bet: Eagles 23, Cowboys 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 37-37-1 this season)

Lions +7
Jaguars +7
Colts -7
Cardinals +9 ½
Bears +6 ½

Chris David (4-1 last week, 41-34 this season)

Chargers -7
Eagles +2 ½
Seahawks -9 ½
Bears +6 ½
Vikings -5 ½

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 45 ½ - Raiders at Chargers

The Chargers are playing their final game in Carson before moving into their new stadium in Los Angeles next season along with the Rams. The Lightning Bolts welcome in the rival Raiders, who lost in their home finale at the Coliseum to the Jaguars. In that defeat, Oakland was limited to fewer than 21 points for the fifth consecutive game, while cashing the UNDER for the fourth time in this span. The Chargers were blown out by the Vikings last week as Los Angeles turned the ball over seven times. In the first matchup between the Chargers and Raiders in Oakland, the Silver and Black won 26-24, snapping a five-game UNDER run between the AFC West rivals.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

In the two worst matchups of the week, we’ll highlight both these line moves with the road squad receiving attention. The Giants opened as 2 ½-point road underdogs against the Redskins, but that line has shifted to a pick-em at the Westgate Superbook. Rookie Daniel Jones will start for the Giants in place of Eli Manning after the former Duke standout missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Dolphins were listed as a favorite for the first time this season as short one-point chalk, but that line has flipped to Cincinnati laying 1 ½ points at the Westgate. If you play those games, best of luck.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Seahawks are on their way to an NFC West title as they need two home wins to accomplish that feat. Seattle hosts Arizona on Sunday as the Seahawks have already blown out the Cardinals once on the road back in Week 4. However, the Cards own a 4-1-1 ATS on the highway this season, including covers against the Ravens and Buccaneers. Arizona has cashed in each of its past four visits to CenturyLink Field, while Seattle hasn’t been this heavy of a favorite since Week 1 against Cincinnati as the Seahawks won that game by one point.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Sunday will mark the 10th time this season that a rookie quarterback will be listed as a favorite. These QB’s have compiled a 3-6 SU/ATS record, which include the likes of Arizona’s Kyler Murray, New York’s Daniel Jones, Washington’s Dwayne Haskins, and Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew. Denver rookie Drew Lock is listed as a seven-point favorite when the Broncos face the Lions, as it is the highest chalk number for Denver this season.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.


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