Betting Recap – Week 17

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Dolphins (+17, ML +1000) at Patriots, 27-24
Jaguars (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Colts, 38-20
Bengals (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Browns, 33-23

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-14) at Panthers, 42-10
Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Redskins, 47-16
Titans (-9.5) at Texans, 35-14

Miami Not Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins headed up to Foxboro with nothing to loose, but head coach Brian Flores wanted to show mentor head coach Bill Belichick how far his team has come since an early-season beatdown in Miami. The New England Patriots headed came home from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Garden back in Week 2 with a 43-0 victory in tow, easily covering a 18-point number. As a 17-point favorite on Sunday, things didn't work out as well.

It was a costly loss for the Patriots, too, as the loss to the five-win Dolphins ended up costing them a bye. Now, the Patriots will have to play another member of the Belichick coaching tree, as Mike Vrabel will lead his Tennessee Titans into town next Saturday night for the primetime AFC Wild-Card Game battle. The Titans and Patriots didn't face each other during the regular season.

After opening the season 0-7 SU, the Dolphins finished up 5-4 SU in their final nine games, and 9-3 ATS across the final 12 games. After looking anything like an NFL-caliber team during the early going, the Dolphins showed no quick, dispelled any talk of tanking and they might have finished runner-up to the Atlanta Falcons for the unofficial 'No Quit' award.

 Total Recall

-- Week 17 is usually a difficult slate of games to handicap, as so many teams elect to rest starters, either for the entire game, part of the game or they get wind of a score in another city and change their plan at the last minute.

Two teams who were not doing that gave us one of the most entertaining games of the 2019 regular season. The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks (47) had an entertaining game which started out rather defensive. There were just 13 points on the board at halftime, all for the Niners. The Seahawks fought back and came within inches of a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. They got a first and goal at the 1, but a delay of game penalty sent them backward, and they were scrambling for plays. A pass play to TE Jacob Hollister was snuffed out, literally, at the 1-inch line on fourth and goal. After a series of reviews, the Niners were award the ball with :09 left. Under bettors, and side bettors (-3.5) everywhere were screaming at NBC Sports commentator Al Michaels, as well as his cohort Cris Collinsworth, who suggested the Niners take a safety and/or run around in the end zone and take a knee. That would have flipped so many tickets. QB Jimmy Garoppolo had other ideas, rushing ahead of a QB sneak to run out the clock. Disaster averted. The game ended up a push, and San Francisco continued to cover.

The highest total on the board was the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5). Things appeared to be headed for an easy over ticket, as the Bucs led 22-16 at halftime. However, we had a scoreless third quarter, and just six points from the Falcons in the fourth to force overtime. A field goal would have meant an 'under' result, but QB Jameis Winston was picked off by LB Deion Jones, who returned the easy pick-six for the win, and the 'over' ticket. It was a bad beat, or as big of a bad beat as the NFL card in Week 17 would offer.

The Sunday nighter was the only primetime game, and it was a push at most shops - so that's what we'll call it. For the season, the 'over' is just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Wild-Card Weekend

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

These teams will meet for the first time this season. Buffalo was an impressive 6-2 SU/6-1-1 ATS with the 'under' connecting in six of their eight games on the road.

For the Texans, they also rested their starters like the Bills in Week 17. Both teams are coming off of home losses, but it shouldn't affect either side. The Texans (-3, 42) are favored at home, but essentially Vegas is calling it a pick 'em, as generally the home side is given a three-point edge. The Texans ended the season a little on the banged up side, with their top skill position players battling nagging injuries. They'll have six days to rest and get ready. The 'under' was 6-3 in the final nine for Houston.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

The Titans were dominant down the stretch, looking like an NFL caliber team once QB Ryan Tannehill took the reins of the offense. Whether he is back, or the team elects to draft a quarterback, it's pretty clear the Marcus Mariota experience is over in Nashville. These teams also did not meet during the regular season. The Titans hit the 'over' in nine of their final 10 games after opening on a 5-1 'under' run. They were 5-3 ATS in the final eight road games, including 3-0 ATS with an 'over' in the final three away outings.

The Patriots (-5, 44) bring the experience into the Wild-Card Game, and they'll have a little anger after blowing a bye against the hapless Dolphins. The 'over' hit in their final three games, too.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

The Vikings pulled off the Minneapolis Miracle back on Jan. 14, 2018, when WR Stefon Diggs squirted free for a miracle touchdown on the final play to stun the Saints. Don't think the fans, and the Saints, haven't forgotten. Plus, the Saints have the bad juju from last season's pass-interference non-call against the Rams, which led to sweeping changes to the rules, allowing coaches' challenges.

These teams didn't face each other in the regular season. The Vikings were 4-2 SU/ATS in the final six road games for the Vikings. The Saints (-8, 47) roll in with three straight wins and covers to lock up a home game in the first round, and they're 11-3 ATS across the past 14 games overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

The only wild-card matchup which saw the teams meet in the regular season is this game. A costly loss at home to the 49ers cost the Seahawks a home playoff game, and now they must go cross-country to meet the four-seed Eagles. Seattle won 17-9 back on Nov. 24 after a bye, easily hitting the 'under' as 1.5-point favorites. They'll enter in a similar spot, favored by one with a total of 46.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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