Hot & Not Report – Week 5

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Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS

NFL Week 5 Betting Angles

Week 4 was a wild one from start to finish in the NFL. And while the Tennessee Titans gave all football fans a quick reminder that the dangers of the world are still out there, hopefully the league can add an extra week or two at the end of the season to help deal with potential schedule disruptions going forward.

But as we saw during the MLB season this year, teams that get hit by the virus can eventually go on playing with minimal hindrance, and hopefully all the Titans miss is this one game from Week 4.

Tennessee's betting options in Week 5 are going to come up a bit later though, as this week's piece deals with the streaky runs we've seen from all NFL teams so far this year in one specific situation: the week before they go prime time.

Who's Hot

NFL teams are a combined 12-4 ATS (75%) this year in the week before playing a Sunday Night or Monday Night Football game

This run only counts the traditional prime time slots for games (specifically not the Patriots/Chiefs game that got moved) and it's been quite a run. Split up between days it's still dead even, as the records sit at 6-2 ATS for teams before a SNF game and 6-2 ATS before playing on Monday night.

What's more is that 11 of these 16 teams have put up at least 30 points in those contests before their date with the bright lights, as 'overs' continue to connect at a torrid pace this NFL season.

Not all of these 16 games have turned into great full game 'over' plays though, as it probably should be treated as more of a team total thing for those that are interested.

I mean just on Sunday's action alone we saw all four teams involved in Week 5's SNF and MNF games – Minnesota at Seattle on SNF and L.A. Chargers at New Orleans on MNF – all put up 31 or more points.

So what does this mean for this week's action?

Who do you Follow?

  • Rams
  • 49ers
  • Cardinals
  • Cowboys

Well, to start, it means taking a peek at the Week 6 schedule:

  • Week 6 SNF - L.A. Rams at San Francisco
  • Week 6 MNF - Arizona at Dallas 

I'm pretty sure there isn't much convincing needed to anyone that's seen a Dallas box score this year to consider a Dallas team total and/or full game 'over' play for Week 5 before that MNF showcase, as this team can't stop a thing on defense and have their offense averaging over 500 yards per game.

The Cowboys host the New York Giants in Week 5 so it's definitely the right opponent for this Cowboys team to potentially get back on track and in the ATS win column for the first time this year, but that's still a lofty number to lay at home with a 1-3 SU team.

Arizona spends Week 5 in their own potential “get right” game too when they visit the New York Jets and the disaster that they've been this year. New York has allowed 30+ to each of their last three opponents, so an 'over' on the Cardinals team total may be a great betting option in Week 5 as well.

The Rams and 49ers also have their own potential “get right” games on tap in Week 5 with SF hosting Miami, and L.A. travelling to Washington. Obviously any SF consideration should be held off on until injury news on their quarterback potentially returning comes down, and I'm sure the Rams offense would like to get back to putting up big numbers after they only managed 17 points against those hapless Giants.

Again team totals 'over' for these two teams might be the better betting path.

That's because all four teams that fit this scenario in Week 5 – Arizona, Dallas, LA, and SF – all have Week 5 opening numbers of them laying at least a TD against their lesser foes. Big spreads like that are definitely going to put this 12-4 ATS run to the test with those big spreads, especially with the Cardinals and Rams laying that chalk away from home.

I would venture a guess that at least one of these teams ends up falling short against the number, but betting against a 12-4 run is a choice every individual has to make for themselves.

Who's Not

NFL teams are a combined 1-7 (12.5%) SU and 2-5-1 ATS (29%) in the week before playing a Thursday Night Football game

The exact opposite seems to be true for those teams that get their prime time spotlight on Thursdays, as now seven of the eight teams going into a TNF game have lost outright the Sunday before. The lone winner was Tampa Bay's 38-31 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and even that result was not looking good for the Bucs for the majority of that game.

Tampa's opponent this Thursday is Chicago and they fell to Indy on Sunday, while Cincinnati and Cleveland each started the year 0-1 SU before meeting on TNF in Week 2.

Miami and Jacksonville followed suit in losing their games on Sunday before squaring off on TNF in Week 3 – it was the Dolphins and Jags who account for the two ATS wins in this role – and Denver and the Jets got blown out in Week 3 before they entertained everyone with that sloppy looking shootout on TNF this past week.

Who do you Fade?

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Kansas City Chiefs

All of that brings me back to the Tennessee Titans though, as they are scheduled to host Buffalo in Week 5 before the Bills face the defending champs in Kansas City on TNF in Week 6.

  • Week 6 TNF - Kansas City at Buffalo

If the Titans are able to go in Week 5 against Buffalo, this trend suggests that fading the 4-0 SU Buffalo Bills would be the way to go, although who's healthy enough to go for Tennessee is always going to be a big question hanging over the week.

The other team to fade here would be those Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 5 game against Las Vegas, and after opening as -12 favorites, going the outright route in fading the Chiefs won't be for the risk averse.

Vegas is going to be getting a huge ML price in this spot, and like the “Hot” trends above, this scenario will really put this run to the test.

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