Over-Under NFL Week 5 Total Predictions, Odds
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Handicapping Week 5 Totals
-- There are 13 totals on the board for Sunday, and one for Monday, with the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans matchup up in the air due to COVID-19 concerns. The Titans just can't stop having personnel and team officials test positive, and until that cluster calms down it's uncertain if and when they'll be playing again. The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are also off this week, as bye weeks start to kick in.
After two weeks without any divisional matchups, a rather strange quirk to the NFL schedule, we finally get a handful of teams playing within their division again.
Some quick total notes before we break down the action.
-- The lowest total for Sunday's schedule is the Keystone State matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers (44) at Heinz Field in the Steel City. The Eagles posted their best defensive effort of the season, allowing a season-low 20 points in a five-point road victory against the San Francisco 49ers for their first victory, and more importantly an 'under' result for the second consecutive weekend after a 2-0 'Over' start. The Steelers are essentially coming off their bye, as their trip to Nashville to face the Titans last week was wiped out due to COVID-19. Their game was rescheduled to a month later, with their game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7 moved back to Week 8, and the Titans game shimmied in to their previously scheduled bye. Pittsburgh has scored 26, 26 and 28 this season while allowing 16, 21 and 21, hitting the 'Over' twice in three matchups.
-- Bettors are expecting a Texas two-step, as far as scoring is concerned. The divisional battles in the Lone Star State, featuring the Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans and New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys each have the highest totals in the Sunday afternoon window at 54.5 apiece.
The Texans fired head coach Bill O'Brien after last week's setback against the Minnesota Vikings. Not only did they lose for the fourth time in four games, but it's their lack of defense which has been holding them back from success. They have allowed 34, 33, 28 and 31 points, and the 'over' has cashed in three of their four games. We'll see if interim head coach Romeo Crennel is able to get the defense to turn things around. It's a much different situation than the last time he was head coach in Kansas City in 2012, but the 'under' was 6-1-1 in his final eight games with the Chiefs, if that counts for anything. He is a defensive-minded coach, but that Kansas City team's offense was abysmal, too, so it likely doesn't count much.
For the Jaguars, they have scored 30 and 25 points in two games on the road this season while allowing 33 points in each of the outings, both 'over results. The lack of defense for both Houston and Jacksonville this season is a complete opposite of the trends in this series. The under has hit in four of the past five meetings in Houston, and the under is 4-0 in the previous four battles at NRG Field in Houston.
-- Keep an eye on teams traveling from coast to coast this week as we have three matchups that feature clubs traveling from Eastern Time Zone to Pacific Time Zone and vice versa. We'll also toss in the Chargers-Saints game. While New Orleans isn't in the Eastern Time Zone, New Orleans is east of the Mississippi River, and it is a long road trip on the heels of their game last week in Tampa.
- Arizona at N.Y. Jets
- L.A. Rams at Washington
- Miami at San Francisco
- *L.A. Chargers at New Orleans (MNF)
-- Make a note that the 'over' went 3-2 in games where the West Coast club traveled to the East Coast, or vice versa, with the over going 8-4 in 12 such games over the past three weekends.
-- Focusing more on the Rams matchup, bettors should be aware of how well the offense has traveled for the club, especially in Eastern Time Zone. They've posted 32 and 37 in visits to Buffalo and Philadelphia respectively this season and that's been a common theme for Sean McVay's teams in non-divisional games. Since he arrived in Los Angeles in 2017, the offense has averaged 27.1 points per game against opponents outside the NFC West. Over an 18-game span, the 'over-under' results are even at 9-9 but the Rams have gone 'over' their team total in 14 of those games. Knowing Washington has allowed 30, 34 and 31 the past three weeks, a 'buy order' could be in play on Los Angeles this Sunday.
Over-Under Line Moves
There hasn't been as much total movement in Week 5 as of Thursday, which tells you that the oddsmakers did a great job with their early numbers. Also, the only notable moves have leaned to 'under' bets and you can see that bettors believe the pendulum could swing back this week.
- Cincinnati at Baltimore: 52 to 51
- Philadelphiat at Pittsburgh: 47 to 44.5
- Indianapolis at Cleveland: 48 to 46
Over-Under Betting TrendsListed below are the five largest leans for Week 5 as of Thursday.
- Carolina at Atlanta: Over 84%
- Minnesota at Seattle: Over 64%
- Philadelphia at Pittsburgh: Under 92%
- Indianapolis at Cleveland: Under 83%
- N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Under 63%
Division Over-Under Notes
The 'over' went 5-1 in the NFL Divisional battles in the Week 2, and is 11-4 overall this season. After two weekends without divisional matchups, we're back with five divisional rivals squaring off against each other.
Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers have cleaned up their defensive issues across the past two weekends, and they have picked up wins. In their first two games, they allowed 32.5 PPG, posting an 'over' in two losses. In the past two games, they have allowed 18.5 PPG, or two 'under' results in two victories. The Falcons have allowed 38, 40, 30 and 30 so far through four games. They had their first 'under' results on Monday night in Green Bay, but that's mainly due to the fact their offense managed just 16 points, a season low by nine points. The 'over' has cashed in four straight divisional matchups for the Panthers, including their meeting with the Buccaneers in Week 2. The over is 4-1 in Atlanta's past five as a home favorite, and 6-1 in the past seven against NFC foes. In this series, though, the under is 10-3-1 in the previous 14 meetings, so we'll see.
Las Vegas at Kansas City: This is expected to be a high-scoring game, mainly due to the Raiders and their lack of defense. They have allowed 30, 24, 36 and 30 in four games this season, including 33.0 PPG in two games on the road this season. They also averaging 27.0 PPG in two games on offense in those two roadies. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in four games for Vegas, hitting by a half-point last weekend against the Bills. It's a bit surprising, but the Chiefs have hit the 'under' in three in a row. Kansas City's defense has stepped up, yielding 20 or fewer points in all four games, including a suffocating effort against the Patriots last week in a 26-10 win. Of course, they had the good fortune of facing QBs Brian Hoyer/Jarrett Stidham in that one, rather than Cam Newton, due to COVID-19, but they also shut down defending MVP Lamar Jackson the previous week. This defense has been legit.
Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens hit their first 'over' last weekend in a 31-17 win over the Washington Football Team. They had allowed 11.0 PPG in their first two games, but they have yielded 25.5 PPG across the past two. Offensively is where it's at for Balto., and that's not surprising since they have the defending MVP. The Ravens have posted 38, 33, 20 and 31 across the first four outings, yet the 'over' is just 1-3 thanks to their defense. Cincinnati has alternated under and over results in each of the first four outings. After a low-scoring Week 1, the Bengals are averaging 28.7 PPG over the past three, while yielding 27.7 PPG during the span, including an over in their only divisional battle in a Thursday game Sept. 17 in Cleveland.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: The Giants offense has been horrific this season, and losing RB Saquon Barkley to a season-ending knee injury early in the season didn't help. They have managed just 16, 13, 9 and 9 in their four games on offense, and they're actually getting worse each week. The 'under' is 3-1 in their four outings to date, with the only 'over' the result of a 36-point outburst by the 49ers back in Week 3. The Cowboys are the complete opposite of the Giants, as they have scored 40, 31 and 38 across the past three games while allowing 39, 38 and 49 in the previous three outings, including a wild 49-38 loss against the Cleveland Browns in Week 4. The over hit by 30.5 points in Week 4 for Dallas, by 11 points in Week 3 and by 26 points in Week 2. Can the Giants finally do something on offense against the defensively-challenged 'Boys?
Don't Believe All Trends
The Arizona Cardinals are the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in each of their four outings this season. The Cardinals have not been the high-octane offense many were expecting, scoring 24, 30, 23 and 21. While that's not horrible, it's not great, either, and the books expected them to be much stronger. The defense has yielded 28.5 PPG across the past two contests, so that first 'over' might be right around the corner. Of course, in Week 5 the Cardinals are facing the Jets on the road, a team which had scored 17, 13 and 7 through the first three weeks before a 28-point explosion last Thursday against the Broncos. The 'over' is 3-1 in four games for the Jets, and they have allowed 31 or more points three in a row.
Week 4 featured five AFC-NFC matchups and the totals saw the over go 4-1.The lone exception was the low-scoring battle between the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears, which saw just 30 points and only two total touchdowns, including 19 points in the first 56:13 of gametime. We're have three more AFC vs. NFC battles in Week 5.
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh: The lowest total on the board in the battle of Pennsylvania. Philly has averaged just 319.0 total yards per game on offense (28th in the NFL), 207.5 passing yards per game (27th) and 21.0 points per game (26th). Defensively, they have allowed just 352.3 total yards per game to rank 10th, too. The Steelers are rested, coming off an unexpected bye last week, and the under is 8-3 in the past 11 games overall dating back to last season. The under is also 4-1 in their past five at Heinz field, too.
Miami at San Francisco: The Dolphins and 49ers hook up in a Super XIX rematch in Santa Clara. The Dolphins have hit the under in each of their two games on the road this season, allowing just 17.0 PPG in those two outings. The under also cashed last week in a 31-23 loss to Seattle, their first NFC West opponent of the season. The 49ers are looking to bounce back after a loss to the Eagles last week, tying for their lowest offensive production of the season with just 20 points. In two home games they're actually averaging 20.0 PPG, hitting the 'under' in both outings at Levi's Stadium.
L.A. Chargers at New Orleans (MNF): (see below)
-- The 'over' ended up just 1-2 in the primetime games again last week, the second consecutive weekend the primetime games have seen more under results than over. If you toss in the rescheduled Patriots-Chiefs game, which went off at 6 p.m. CT on Monday, the 'under' was 3-1 in four primetime games, although that game counts officially as daytime.
-- Excluding that NE-KC result, the 'over-under' sits at 6-7 (46.2%) in primetime games this season.
Sunday Night Football Notes
The Vikings and Seahawks will meet at CenturyLink Field in SoDo on Sunday Night Football, and the Vikings catch a break without 'The 12' providing extra noise and energy for the home side. The Vikings have registered 30 or more points in three of their four games, including 30.5 PPG in the previous two outings. The 'over' is 3-1 for Minnesota, while Seattle has scored 38, 35, 38 and 31 in four games to date while allowing 23 or more points in each of their four contests. The 'over' is also 3-1 for Seattle, including 2-0 in their two home games. That includes a 35-30 victory over New England on SNF in Week 2.
Monday Night Football Notes
The Chargers and Saints meet up in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans on Monday. L.A. coughed up 31 points on the road against the Buccaneers last Sunday, giving up five touchdown passes to future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Now they'll meet another signal caller likely to be enshrined in Canton, Drew Brees. The 'under' is 3-1 in four games for the Bolts so far, while the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 for the Saints. New Orleans has scored 30.8 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL, while allowing 30.8 PPG to rank 25th in the league.
Ugh. After such a nice Week 3, that hard thud you heard was me crashing back to Earth. I went 0-2-1 in my three 'best' picks in Week 4, and my teaser was alive until the Falcons and Packers decided to finally find some defense for the first time this season. That meant an ugly (-$320) to take a huge chunk out of the profits, dropping me down to (+$305) for the season. We'll look for the bounce-back in Week 5 with four more wagers.
- Best Over: Philadelphia-Pittsburgh 43.5
- Best Under: N.Y. Giants-Dallas 54.5
- Best First-Half Total: Jacksonville-Houston Under 27.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
- Over Arizona-N.Y. Jets 40
- Under Miami-San Francisco 53.5
- Under L.A. Rams-Washington 52.5
Week 4 & Overall Betting Results
Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘over’ went 8-7 in Week 4, and the over has a 37-26 (58.7%) advantage to date.
|Week 4 Total Results
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