Over-Under NFL Week 17 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

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Handicapping Week 17 Totals

We're headed to the final week of the NFL regular season, and it can sometimes be tricky to handicap because teams which have locked in seeds have elected to rest players.

We have a little bit of that this season, too, as the Pittsburgh Steelers will rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger after sewing up the AFC North Division title last week.

The Kansas City Chiefs also nailed down the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, so QB Patrick Mahomes will one of a handful of key starters head coach Andy Reid announced will rest.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Tight tend Travis Kelce will also sit, as will defensive starters Frank Clark, Chris D. Jones and Tyrann Mathieu.

That means QB Chad Henne makes his first start since 2014, and he'll be tossing passes to starting WRs Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle.

Unlike past years, there is just one team receiving a bye in each conference, rather than two, so fewer teams will be afforded a chance to rest.

Most of still either jockeying for a seed, or they're simply still trying to get into the playoffs with 14 spots available to the 32 teams.

While 14 teams have been eliminated from the postseason chase, 18 teams are either in the playoffs or simply still alive for a spot.

Week 17 Betting Angles

VI Expert Matt Blunt dug up some great total numbers in his latest Hot & Not Report, focusing on the outcomes.

While the 'over' went 13-3 in Week 17 last season, the 'under' has turned out to be a slightly better investment.

When in doubt, you may want to lean low.

Over-Under (O/U) Week 17 Results

2019: 13-3
2018: 8-8
2017: 7-9
2016: 8-8
2015: 5-11
2014: 6-10
2013: 6-10

Over-Under Line Moves

We have had plenty of action for Week 17, with news coming in about injuries and players resting, so there is a lot of movement both ways. You can expect in this crazy final week that there will be a lot more movement, too.

Down

N.Y. Jets at New England: 43 to 39.5
New Orleans at Carolina: 50.5 to 47.5
Dallas at N.Y. Giants: 46.5 to 44.5
Arizona at L.A. Rams: 42.5 to 41
L.A. Chargers at Kansas City: 45 to 44

Up

Miami at Buffalo: 43.5 to 47.5
Green Bay at Chicago: 48.5 to 52
Minnesota at Detroit: 53 to 54.5
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: 48.5 to 49.5
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: 41 to 42
Washington at Philadelphia: 42.5 to 43.5

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 17 as of Thursday.

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets: Over 94%
Tennessee at Green Bay (SNF): Over 93%
L.A. Rams at Seattle: Over 86%
Atlanta at Kansas City: Over 82%
Buffalo at New England (MNF): Over 73%
Carolina at Washington: Over 71%

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Under 98%
Chicago at Jacksonville: Under 93%
Philadelphia at Dallas: Under 78%
Cincinnati at Houston: Under 76%
Minnesota at New Orleans: Under 61%
N.Y. Giants at Baltimore: Under 58%
Denver at L.A. Chargers: Under 54%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'under' went 3-1 with one push in the five NFL Divisional battles in Week 16, and the 'under' is now 40-37-2 (51.9%) overall this season.

All 16 matchups in the final week will be divisional matchups, a new trend in the NFL in recent years for the final week of the season.

Below we listed the week, score and the total result of the first matchups of this weekend's game.

Let's break down the games!

Dallas at N.Y. Giants

Week	Score	Result
5	N.Y. Giants 34, Dallas 37	Over 52

The Cowboys offense has been tremendous lately, going for 37, 41 and 30 across the past three games, while hitting the 'over' in each of the past two, and five of the previous six. The over also hit in the first meeting this season, the game which QB Dak Prescott was knocked out for the entire season. This one could see a little more defense, as both teams are still technically still alive for a division title, pending the result of the SNF game between Washington-Philadelphia. A Philly win, and the winner of this game actually would win the NFC East. Therefore with some higher stakes than your typical Week 17 game, we might see a lower scoring game. However, the over has cashed in four straight in this series, and five of the past seven meetings in New Jersey.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Week	Score	Result
5	Cincinnati 3, Baltimore 27	Under 49

The Ravens are still playing for a playoff spot, so they should keep their foot on the gas for the entire game. Baltimore hit the 'under' last week, snapping a 3-0 'over' run. Baltimore's offense has been hitting its stride lately, going for 27, 40, 47 and 34 across the past four. The under is 3-2 in their previous five divisional games this season, however. For Cincinnati, QB Ryan Finley has been much improved in the past two games, helping Cincinnati to average 33.0 PPG for a pair 'over' results coming in. The over is 4-1 in Cincinnati's five divisional games to date.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Week	Score	Result
6	Cleveland 7, Pittsburgh 38	Under 50

As mentioned above, Big Ben is being rested for this game. QB Mason Rudolph gets the start, and we know he is an unpopular figure in Cleveland, on the receiving end of a helmet smash from DE Myles Garrett last season. Cleveland has to win and they're into the playoffs, snapping the NFL's longest drought. The offense has struggled in the past two games, averaging just 18.0 PPG across the past two, including last week's debacle against the Jets. But they were also missing their top four receivers due to COVID-19. It's uncertain if the Browns will have their full assortment of wide receivers this week, and the Steelers will be playing some backups on offense.

N.Y. Jets at New England

Week	Score	Result
9	New England 30, N.Y. Jets 27	Over 42

The Jets have won back-to-back games over playoff contenders, with the defense stepping up to allow just 18.0 PPG. The 'under' has hit in three straight games, and nine of the past 13 overall for the J-E-T-S. The 'under' hasn't been a problem for the Patriots lately, either. They looked uninspired in a MNF loss to Buffalo last week, scoring just nine points in their first game back after being officially eliminated from the postseason hunt. The 'under' is 6-0-1 in New England's past seven games overall, too, and 9-2-1 across the past 12, although one of those overs occurred in the first meeting on Nov. 9 in New Jersey.

Minnesota at Detroit

Week	Score	Result
9	Detroit 20, Minnesota 34	Over 51.5

The Vikings went for 33 and 27 in the past two games, and they're averaging 26.2 PPG across the past six outings, hitting the 'over' in four of those games. Overall Minnesota is good for the over in 10 of the first 15, including the first meeting in Week 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The over is 4-1 in Minnesota's first five divisional games, too. For the Lions, their defense has been drummed for 47 and 46 across the past two games, and at least 30 points in each of the past five outings, hitting the 'over' in three of those games. The over is also 4-1 in Detroit's first five divisional games this season.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Week	Score	Result
15	Tampa Bay 31, Atlanta 27	Over 49.5

The Falcons showed some signs of life on defense last week, holding the Chiefs to just 17 points at Arrowhead for an 'under'. The 'over' cashed in the first three games this season for Atlanta, but interim head coach Raheem Morris has helped the team show some defensive fight. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six games for the Falcons, and 9-3 across the past 12. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta's five divisional games, too, with the lone over the first meeting with the Bucs just two weeks ago. The Bucs have posted 24 or more points in each of the past six games since their season-low three points against New Orleans on Nov. 8. The under is still 3-1 in the past four thanks to a strong defensive effort, as the Bucs are yielding just 16.0 PPG over the past three. Head coach Bruce Arians said Wednesday in a satellite radio interview that his team will keep its foot on the gas in Week 17, as they want 11 wins and that No. 5 seed in the NFC.

Miami at Buffalo

Week	Score	Result
2	Buffalo 31, Miami 28	Over 42.5

The Dolphins are alive and well in the playoff chase, as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick came off the bench to lead them past the Raiders in Las Vegas last Saturday. The Bills have nailed down the NFC East, who can still earn the No. 2 seed, so they will not be resting. However, WR Cole Beasley suffered a leg injury in New England on Monday, and he is not expected to play. That's a decent chunk of offense, although they still obviously have the dynamic WR Stefon Diggs, who scored three TDs in Week 16. The Bills have posted 38, 48, 26, 34, 27, 40 and 44 over the past seven games, as they're hitting on all cylinders again after a mid-season hiccup.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Week	Score	Result
1	Indianapolis 20, Jacksonville 27	Over 44

The Jaguars stunned the Colts in Week 1, their only win of the season in an 'over' result. The Colts are still fighting for a playoff spot, and they need help to get in. The Colts offense has been strong lately, going for 24 or more points in seven consecutive games. The over is 5-2 across the seven-game run, too. The 'over' is 3-2 in Indy's first five divisional games, with unders both coming against Houston. Jacksonville has hit the over in each of the past two, but it's no thanks to the offense. They are avearging 13.7 PPG across the past three games, but allowing 40.5 PPG across the past two, and at least 31 points in three consecutive games. The over is also 3-2 in Jacksonville's first five divisional contests.

Green Bay at Chicago

Week	Score	Result
12	Chicago 25, Green Bay 41	Over 44

The Bears offense has been red-hot lately, going for 25 or more in five straight, 30 or more in four in a row, and 33 or more points in each of the past three. These aren't your grandfather's Bears lately. The over has hit in four of the past five for Chicago, and the run started with the first meeting in Green Bay on Nov. 29. The over is 4-1 in Chicago's first five divisional games. Chicago has managed 24 or more points in eight consecutive outings, including a 40-spot in the snow last week in a SNF win over the Titans. However, it was the first over in four games for the Pack.

Tennessee at Houston

Week	Score	Result
6	Houston 36, Tennessee 42 (OT)	Over 52

Houston scored 31 points in a six-point loss at home to Cincinnati last week, their first 'over' result in four games. The Texans haven't hit consecutive overs since Weeks 3-4, the only time they've gone back-to-back with the over this season. The Texans defense has allowed 25 or more points in five straight games, but the offense has been erratic and not contributing for over bettors. The Titans scored a season-low 14 points in the snow in Green Bay last week, although the 'over' is still 6-1 in the past seven, as they coughed up 40. The Titans defense has allowed 40, 25, 10, 41, 26, 24 and 34 across the past seven.

New Orleans at Carolina

Week	Score	Result
7	Carolina 24, New Orleans 27	Over 49.5

The Saints hit the 'over' in each of their first seven, and each of the past three. Those over results sandwich a 5-0 'under' run from Nov. 8 through Dec. 6, with some of those games started by QB Taysom Hill. QB Drew Brees is back under center, and happy times are here again in NOLA for over bettors. They dropped a season-high 52 points on the Vikings on Christmas night last week, and the defense has allowed 33, 32 and 24 across the past three, too. Carolina is aveaging just 18.0 PPG on offense in the past two, and the defense is allowing 18.5 PPG across the past two. The under has hit in each of those outings, the first time hitting back-to-back unders since mid-October.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City

Week	Score	Result
2	Kansas City 23, L.A. Chargers 20 (OT)	Under 47

The Chiefs scored a season-low 17 points last week in a narrow three-point win over the Falcons, hitting the under for the eighth time in 15 games. As mentioned above, Henne gets the starting nod under center, while Mahomes, Hill and Kelce sit for the offense, so don't expect much from K.C. The Bolts enter with the 'under' hitting in four of the past five after a 7-0 'over' run. The Chargers have averaged just 17.2 PPG across the previous five outings.

Seattle at San Francisco

Week	Score	Result
8	San Francisco 27, Seattle 37	Over 54.5

The Seahawks have been a bettor's best friend lately, entering play with a league-high seven-game 'under' run. That run is due in large part to a great defensive effort, as they're allowing just 9.0 PPG over the past three games, and 21 or fewer points in six consecutive outings. The 49ers will have QB C.J. Beathard, their third-string quarterback, under center for a second straight game. He led the 49ers to a 20-12 win in Arizona last Saturday afternoon, and that's where this one will be played due to COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara, Calif., as the 49ers have been playing in the Phoenix area for the past month. The under is 4-2 for the 49ers in the past six outings, and the under is 4-1 in their past five divisional games, too.

Las Vegas at Denver

Week	Score	Result
10	Denver 12, Las Vegas 37	Under 50

The Broncos have scored 20 or fewer points in six of the past seven games, including the first matchup in Las Vegas in Week 10. The under is 5-2 in the previous seven for Denver as a result. The defense has had mixed results, allowing 19 last week, but 48 in the previous outing to Buffalo. Vegas enters on a 4-0 'over' run, as they have scored 25, 27, 27 and 31 across the past four, while allowing 26, 30, 44, 28, 43 and 34 over their previous six affairs. The Raiders fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther due to his unit's struggles, but they weren't much better last week in his stead. The over is 11-3-1 in all 15 games for Vegas this season, including 4-1 in their first five divisional games.

Arizona at L.A. Rams

Week	Score	Result
13	L.A. Rams 38, Arizona 28	Over 49

The Cardinals will catch a break in Week 17, as Wolford starts for the home side, with RB Cam Akers also banged up, and WR Cooper Kupp out on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. The Rams will have trouble scoring points as a result. The Cardinals have allowed just 17.7 PPG across the past three, hitting the 'under' in two of the past three. For L.A., the defense has allowed 15.3 PPG across the previous three outings, and they'll be leaned upon heavily again with Wolford making his first NFL start and needing all the help he can get. The under is 3-0 in the past three for L.A., and 4-1 in their first five divisional games.

Sunday Night Football Notes

SNF | MNF | TNF

-- The 'over' finished 2-0-1 in the three primetime games in Week 16. The 'under' has produced a 24-22-1 (52.2%) clip in 47 primetime games so far this season. We have just one primetime game in Week 17, the WFT-Eagles game.

Washington at Philadelphia

Week	Score	Result
1	Philadelphia 17, Washington 27	Over 41.5

Washington surprised Philly in the season opener. QB Jalen Hurts has started the past three games, and the 'over' is 3-0 in each of those outings, with the offense averaging 22.3 PPG. The over run has been a result of the defensive deficiencies, however, as they have allowed 70 total points in the past two, and 30.3 PPG over the past three. Washington made big news cutting former first-round pick QB Dwayne Haskins this week. They'll either lean upon QB Alex Smith for the finale, if healthy, as they try to win the NFC East. If not, it will be QB Taylor Heinicke trying to get them to the postseason. Washington is averaging just 14.0 PPG in the past two, and the 'under' is 4-0 in their previous four.

Fearless Predictions

I finally had a positive week (+$200) again, but overall I am a dismal (-$1080) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 17 with four more wagers, trying to build that bankroll back up for the NFL postseason.

Best Over: Over 44.5 Dallas at N.Y. Giants
Best Under: Under 51 Las Vegas at Denver
Best First-Half Total: Under 23.5 Seattle at San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

Under 51 L.A. Chargers at Kansas City
Under 48 Arizona at L.A. Rams
Under 50.5 Washington at Philadelphia

Week 16 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘over’ went 8-7-1 in Week 16, and the over has a 125-112-3 (52.7%) advantage to date.

Week 16 Total Results

Year	Over/Under
Divisional matchups	1-3-1
NFC vs. NFC	2-1
AFC vs. AFC	3-1
AFC vs. NFC	2-2

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