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Oct 25, 2021

Betting Recap - Week 7

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 7 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-4
Against the Spread 7-5
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 8-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-7
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 67-39
Against the Spread 51-55
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 53-53
Against the Spread 48-58
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 48-56-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up

  • Bengals +6 (ML +230) at Ravens, 41-17
  • Titans +4 (ML +175) vs. Chiefs, 27-3
  • Colts +3 (ML +145) at 49ers, 30-18
  • Giants +3 (ML +130) vs. Panthers, 25-3

The largest favorites to cover

  • Cardinals (-20) vs. Texans, 31-5
  • Buccaneers (-12) vs. Bears, 38-3
  • Packers (-8.5) vs. Washington, 24-10
  • Patriots (-7) vs. Jets, 54-13


The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Chicago Bears-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game appeared to be a certain OVER. After the first quarter, QB Tom Brady had two touchdown strikes, including his 600th regular-season TD pass to become the only player in NFL history to accomplish the feat. The Bucs led 21-0, and OVER bettors were feeling good.

In the second quarter, Brady hit WR Mike Evans with two more touchdown strikes to take a 35-3 lead into the room after 30 minutes. With a total of just 47, surely OVER bettors were starting to fire up the shots and celebrate a winning ticket.

Not so fast. The third quarter was completely scoreless, and Tampa Bay managed just a field goal in the fourth quarter for a total of just 41 points, winning 38-3. To make matters worse, RB Ronald Jones II was stuffed at the 1-yard line on fourth down, as the Bears D bowed their backs and held him out late in the third quarter. That likely was the difference, keeping the total UNDER.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans game had a total of 59 points. This wasn't a bad beat, as the Chiefs were beaten soundly. But, if you bet the Chiefs and/or the OVER, you were left scratching your head.

The Titans entered Sunday's game allowing 26.7 PPG, including 31 last week in a win against the Buffalo Bills. Tennessee was coming in on a short week, and surely the Chiefs would re-discover their offense, right?

Wrong. Kansas City was blanked in the first half, and ended up with just a mere field goal on the day. The game marked the first time with QB Patrick Mahomes as a starter that the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown. In fact, RB Derrick Henry opened the scoring with a touchdown pass to TE MyCole Pruitt, equaling the amount of TD strikes from his own QB Ryan Tannehill, and throwing more touchdowns than Mahomes. New England Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne also had a touchdown strike against the New York Jets, eclipsing Mahomes, that's how bad of a day it was for the latter.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 7 was in the Denver Broncos-Cleveland Browns (40) game on Thursday night. With QB Baker Mayfield and RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt out for the home side, the books set the line super low. It wasn't low enough. Cleveland fired out to a 10-0 lead, and that's where things stood at halftime after a scoreless second. The two teams exchanged touchdowns in the third, but only the Broncos scored in the fourth quarter, as Cleveland hung on for a low-scoring 17-14 win behind backup QB Case Keenum.

Ths second lowest number on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-San Francisco 49ers (41.5) prime time game on Sunday. The game was played in a driving rain with a low-pressure system coming ashore in the Bay Area. It didn't befront the two teams, as they combined for 19 points in the first quarter. We had just 13 total points in the second and third quarters, with the Colts scoring all of those points. It was 20-12 heading to the final quarter, so OVER bettors needed some help. They got it, as the teams posted a total of 16 points to inch the total across the finish line.

The highest total on the board was the aforementioned Chiefs-Titans (59) game, which never threatened the OVER. The only other total on the board over 50 was in the Detroit Lions-Los Angeles Rams (50.5) showdown between QBs Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. The two were traded for each other in the offseason. Goff was back in L.A., and his team led 19-17 heading to the final quarter. The Rams outscored the Lions 11-0 in the final quarter, and a Goff interception in the end zone killed OVER bettors.

In the primetime games, the OVER/UNDER was 1-1, with the New Orleans Saints-Seattle Seahawks (42) still pending. That's now 11-7-1 (61.1%) through 19 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans (5-2) worked over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 by a 27-3 score, winning and covering a second consecutive marquee game in the AFC as home 'dogs. Now, perhaps the books will show Tennessee some respect.

Tennessee topped the Colts (3-4) by a 25-16 score in Nashville in Week 3 asthe UNDER connected. Since that loss, which dropped the Colts to 0-3, Indy has really pieced it together. They have won three of the past four, covering all four games, and they blew a game on SNF at Baltimore which they easily could have won. The OVER is 3-1 in the previous four for Indianapolis, too.

While the Titans covered at home against the Colts in Week 3, they're still 6-14 ATS in the past 20 meetings, and just 3-7 ATS in the previous 10 trips to Indiana's capital. The UNDER is 14-6 in the previous 20 meetings in Indy, too.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Panthers (3-4) opened the season 3-0 SU/ATS, but they have lost and failed to cover each of the previous four. The Panthers hit rock-bottom in a 25-3 loss at N.Y. Giants Sunday, a game which saw QB Sam Darnold benched for QB PJ Walker.

The Falcons (3-3) started out 0-2 SU/ATS, but they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four outings. Atlanta had a come-from-behind win in Miami, dropping the Dolphins 30-28 with a field goal at the buzzer. The Falcons offense is averaging 29.0 PPG across the past three, hitting the OVER in each.

Carolina is 8-2 ATS across its past 10 road games, and 6-1 ATS across the previous seven as a road underdog. Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven as a home fave. Howevr, the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, and 5-1 ATS in the past six at home vs. CAR.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Steelers (3-3) and Browns (4-3) met three times last season, with the Browns winning a decisive Wild-Card game in Pittsburgh to exorcise a bunch of demons.

Pittsburgh earned a 23-20 win in overtime in Week 6 on SNF, winning two straight before going into the bye. Cleveland was without the triumvirate of Mayfield, Chubb and Hunt, but still went on to a 17-14 win over the Denver Broncos on Thursday night behind Keenum and RB D'Ernest Johnson.

Pittsburgh has covered just one of its past five inside the AFC North, while Cleveland is 10-25-1 ATS in the previous 36 divisional games. For some reason, Week 8 has been a bugaboo for the Browns, as they're 0-6 ATS in the previous six Week 8 games.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins (1-6) lost for the sixth straight game in Week 7 against the Falcons. The losing skid started back in Week 2 with a 35-0 blasting from the Bills (4-2) at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida.

Buffalo suffered a hard-fought 34-31 loss at Tennessee on Monday night before its bye, snapping a 4-0 ATS run in the process.

Miami has not only lost six in a row, but they're just 1-5 ATS during the run, with the OVER going 4-1 across the past five. A lack of offense and a poor defense has the Dolphins reeling. Miami has allowed 29.6 PPG, ranking 31st in the NFL.

The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in their past nine trips to Buffalo, with the OVER 6-0 in the previous six in western New York. The OVER is 5-1 in the past six meetings, although the UNDER cashed in the first battle this season in SoFla.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers (6-1) belted the Chicago Bears 38-3 in Week 7, as Brady made NFL history yet again. Tampa covered as 12.5-point favorites, now 3-0 ATS as a double-digit fave in the past three such situations.

The Saints played on Monday night in Seattle, so they're coming home and playing on a short week after a cross-country trip.

Tampa is 4-1 ATS in the previous five inside the division, but they're 0-4 ATS in the past four as a road favorite. New Orleans has covered seven of the past 10 inside the NFC South, and they're 7-2 ATS in the previous nine as a road 'dog.

New Orleans has been kryptonite to Tampa, going 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series.

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