Thanksgiving Total Talk – Week 12

We've arrived at Week 12 of the NFL regular season, and that means the special three-game Thanksgiving slate. Happy Thanksgiving to all of the readers, and I hope that things are back to normal this holiday season after a tumultuous and strange 2020. Let's get started!

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (O/U 41, 12:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

Ahh, tradition. I don't know how it goes in your home, but by the time kickoff for the traditional Lions game is about to get underway at my house, that's when the house is starting to smell good. The scent of turkey is wafting through the downstairs, usually there are some sort of baked goodies and their smells mixing in, guests might even start to arrive. There is a cacophony of friends and relatives catching up. It's what the Lions game is all about, as you generally cast a glance at the TV, but they're generally so bad there isn't much reason to watch intently. That is, unless you wager on the game.

The Bears saw QB Justin Fields exit Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens due to an injury to his ribs. In stepped veteran QB Andy Dalton, and he tossed two second-half touchdowns to make things interesting. The Bears had WRs Darnell Mooney and Marquise Goodwin go over 100 yards, and Chicago's offense looked awfully potent against a good Ravens D.

On Monday, Bears head coach Matt Nagy said the team is "still gathering facts" on the injury to Fields, and by Tuesday Nagy announced that Dalton will start Thursday, with Fields still the starter once he is healthy enough to play. That likely means QB Nick Foles will serve as the backup Thursday with the quick turnaround.

Dalton is 1-1 in two starts this season, while completing 48-of-73 passes for 471 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in those two starts and two relief appearances.

These teams met in Week 4 in Chicago, and the Bears picked up a 24-14 win as the UNDER connected. QB Jared Goff faced Fields in that one. Goff was out last week in Cleveland due to an oblique injury, but he is reportedly trending toward playing Thursday. Is that a good thing? Well, it can't be worse than the first NFL start by QB Tim Boyle, who passed for just 77 yards and two interceptions against the Browns.

Las Vegas Cowboys at Dallas Cowboys (O/U 50.5, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 10 featured four non-conference matchups and the UNDER went 3-1.

We have five more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 11 schedule, including the Thursday night game.

 New England at Atlanta (Thu.): The Patriots offense has been hot lately, with QB Mac Jones really coming into his own and looking more comfortable. The Patriots have posted 45, 24, 27, 54, 29 and 25 across the past six, with the OVER 5-1 during the impressive span. The defense has allowed a total of 13 points in the past two games. New England has posted OVER totals in the past two against NFC teams after going 2-0 to the UNDER in the first two against the NFC.

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (O/U 45.5, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

The OVER/UNDER went 2-2 in the four NFL Divisional battles in Week 10. We have four more divisional matchups on tap for Sunday. 

Primetime Notes

The UNDER was 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 11. The UNDER has produced a 16-14-1 (53.3%) clip in 31 primetime games so far this season. 

Fearless Predictions

Last week's predictions were so-so at 2-2 (+15), but hey, it's not a losing week. That's a season total of (+450). Let's start building that bankroll for Week 11 and down the stretch.

  • Best Over: Over 47 Steelers at Chargers
  • Best Under: Under 45.5 49ers at Jaguars
  • Best First-Half Total: Under 22.5 Texans at Titans

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • Over 38 Dolphins at Jets
  • Under 56.5 Packers at Vikings
  • Over 40 Steelers at Chargers

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