Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 15:40 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
Week 13 of the NFL season figures to give us some more thrills while keeping us all guessing again who will cover, and now mother nature has jumped into the mix with five chilly locations expecting some rain and windy conditions that have bookmakers adjusting their opening total numbers downward.
The betting public, the club to which most of us belong, has the same three to four teams they’re focusing on across Nevada. It’s a collective Big Bang betting theory where everyone bets on the same teams and has them all intertwined in straight bets, parlays, exotic props, and teasers. If those three or four teams win, the books get killed paying out 6-to-1 3-team parlay payouts and 11-to-1 on 4-teamers.
One of those Big Bang parlay days hasn’t happened in the NFL since the Sunday of Week 7 when the betting public had the sportsbooks on the ropes with three straight winning weeks. But what happened to drail the run is that the popular teams had a lull in covering the spread while the teams they hate started winning, or at least covering some games.
So here they are in Week 13 believing what they saw last. Of course, they love the Raiders -1 at home against the Washingtons one week after the Raiders won at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Everyone saw the game, it’s still fresh, and most of these bettors are also somewhat of Raider fans because they’re the home team. They have their favorite team from the city near where they came from but it’s more about supporting the local Las Vegas team.
Washington Football Team vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The last time the Raiders got this type of public support in Nevada was in Week 9 when everyone had no problem laying -3 on the road at the Giants. Of course, the Giants won 23-16. This is why I write this piece every week. I like to showcase what the public is collectively thinking because when a boat gets too many people on board it sinks.
And I like to highlight what the sharp bettors have sided with because they win more than they lose.
This week the sharps are on Washington at Las Vegas against the Raiders. It’s the top sharp play at Station Casinos and the second-most wagered sharp play at the South Point. Washington has won and covered its last three and at 5-6 are right back in the playoff mix.
The public is also high on the 49ers (-3.5 at Seattle), Cardinals (-7.5 at Chicago), and the Colts (-10 at Houston).
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers have won and covered three straight and in addition to getting the 12th man at Seattle, they’ll also have to deal with 38 degrees, 85% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU and ATS since Russell Wilson came back from injury, and they’re 3-8 on the season.
The Seahawks are going to win eventually but I think bettors are finally starting to see that Wilson may have come back too soon. The Seahawks have stayed under in their last nine games and the number is at 45.5.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears
The Cardinals are expected to have QB Kyler Murray back, along with his star WR DeAndre Hopkins, after missing three games. They come off a bye and backup Colt McCoy won two of three games without Murray on the road. So that’s four weeks with no one trying to kill Murray, but might he have rust?
Chicago is expecting rain Sunday, at 47 degrees, and 17 mph winds. The weather didn’t affect the side -- still steady at -7.5 throughout the week -- but the total did drop from 46.5 to 42. The Cardinals have an NFL-best 9-2 record and are 8-3 ATS which is part of why they have the most tickets written on them at Station Casinos
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
The Colts are popular this week at Houston and have been bet up from -8 to -10. The Colts beat the Texans 31-3 in their Week 6 meeting making them 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Colts had won three straight until losing to the Buccaneers 38-31 last week
On a lesser level from those four sides, the public was also on the Bengals (-3 vs. Chargers) and the Dolphins (-6.5 vs. Giants).
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers know all about the cold Cincinnati weather, or at least Dan Fouts does. That was the Freezer Bowl for the AFC Title in 1982. The best offense in football got slowed by mother nature, Bengals won 27-7, in minus-59 degree wind chill. It’s not that bad Sunday, only 46 degrees, 20% chance of rain, and 11 mph winds. The Bengals have been a steady 3-point home favorite all week.
But the interesting part is that the Bengals were bet at -2.5 by sharp money at the Las Vegas SuperBook before the public momentum swung that way. However, Station Casinos have sharp action on the Chargers who have failed to cover their last three games.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins
Giants QB Daniel Jones didn’t clear concussion protocols and will not start at Miami as backup Mike Glennon takes the reins. The Giants went from -3 to -6.5 at Circa Sports.
Sharp money played the Dolphins at -4 at the SuperBook and also bet them at BetMGM. The public was betting on Miami before any QB announcement because the Dolphins have won and covered their last four games. The total dropped from 41 to 39 despite perfect 80-degree weather, but the Giants have stayed under in their last five games.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
The Chiefs have won four straight and covered their last two as they welcome the Broncos to Kansas City with 39 degrees, but no wind or rain. The weird part is the public is skeptical of the Chiefs. They still think something is wrong with QB Patrick Mahomes. “His vision is off” or “Maybe he had a small stroke” or “fatherhood changed him.”
The sharps jumped all over all the Broncos at +10 and +9.5 and the line has settled at Chiefs -9 with the total dropping from 49 to 47. The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Rams
The South Point took sharp money on the Jaguars +13 at the Rams. Both teams have lost three straight and both teams are 4-7 ATS with the Rams failing to cover their last five games. The Jaguars have stayed under in their last six games.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
The SuperBook took sharp action on the Patriots +3 at Buffalo in the Monday night game where temperatures are expected at 28 degrees. The Patriots have won and covered their last six games and are averaging a 28-15 score. The total has dropped from 45 down to 42.5.
I think that’s it. I used all my notes, so all the best in week 13 my friends.