NFL Week 5 Parlay Picks and Predictions

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 5 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.

ATS Parlay Best Bet

• Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-110) @ CLE
• Miami Dolphins -3 (-110) @ NYJ

Payout: +264

Cleveland has been on quite the rollercoaster to start the season, as three of the Browns’ first four contests were decided by a field goal or less, as they got tangled up in close matchups against the Panthers, Jets, and Falcons, resulting in a modest record of 2-2 through Week 4. The Chargers, on the other hand, also sit 2-2 through Week 4, however, the path to .500 hasn’t exactly been a walk in the park for the Bolts, as L. A. drew tough matchups against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Jaguars to open the season, while racking up 24+ PTS on 355 YDS in three of those affairs.

I’ll back L. A. to cover here, as Cleveland was just a few bad bounces away from starting 4-0, however, I expect them to get a wakeup call against the Chargers in Week 5, which is the most talented squad the Browns have faced this season by a considerable margin.

The Jets are off to a surprisingly solid 2-2 start to the season, however, it hasn’t been pretty, as they scored just 10.5 PPG on 354 YPG and turned the ball over six times across a pair of double-digit losses to Baltimore and Cincy in Weeks 1 and 3, and they escaped with a pair of thrilling come-from-behind road victories over Cleveland and Pittsburgh in Weeks 2 and 4.

The Dolphins clearly aren’t the same squad without Tua Tagovailoa under center, however, they still have a very solid backup QB in Teddy Bridgewater, who posted a 7-7 record in 14 starts for Denver last season (68% CMP, 18 TD, 7 INT). I’ll back Miami to handle business on the road here, as Bridgewater certainly handicaps the Dolphins in tough matchups, however, I still expect them to cruise by mediocre opponents like the Jets with relative ease.

ML Parlay Best Bet

• Tennessee Titans ML (-130) @ WAS
• Baltimore Ravens (-170) vs CIN

Payout: +180

It’s been a tale of two very different two-game sets for Washington to start the year, as the Commanders opened the season with a 1-1 split against Detroit and Jacksonville, while racking up 27.5 PPG on 393 YPG in those two affairs. However, Washington’s offense stunk in Weeks 3 and 4, as the Commanders scored 10 PTS or less on sub-300 YDS in back-to-back losses to the Eagles and Cowboys in their following two contests.

Tennessee, on the other hand, stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Titans opened with consecutive losses to the Giants and Bills, while scoring just 13.5 PPG on 273 YPG, and defensively, allowing 31 PPG on 404 YPG across those two contests. However, Tennessee played much better in Weeks 3 and 4, as the Titans scored 24 PTS in back-to-back victories over the Raiders and Colts to even up their record at 2-2. So, I’ll back Tennessee to keep it going here.

The Bengals posted a surprisingly slow start to the season following their impressive trip to last year’s Super Bowl, as Cincinnati opened with a pair of head-scratching losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas, while averaging just 18.5 PPG and turning the ball over five times across those two affairs. The Bengals’ offense has looked much better since (27 PPG, 1 TO), however, it’s tough to put much credence into victories over Joe Flacco and the Jets and Teddy Bridgewater and the Dolphins.

Lamar Jackson and co. sit 2-2 after the first four weeks of the season, however, their .500 record certainly doesn’t tell the full story, as the Ravens led by 17+ PTS late in both of their losses to Buffalo and Miami. Hindsight is always 20-20, but if Baltimore actually hung on to win those two contests, we would be talking about this Ravens squad very differently after scoring 29.8 PPG on 359 YPG in their first four matchups, while also forcing a league-high 10 turnovers on the defensive side.

Six-Point Teaser

• Tamp Bay Buccaneers -3 (-9) vs ATL
• Lions-Patriots Over 40.5 (OU 46.5)

Payout: -120

Tampa Bay’s offense couldn’t get anything going out of the gate, as the Bucs’ scored 20 PTS or less in consecutive matchups against the Cowboys, Saints, and Packers in their first three contests, despite escaping with victories in two of those affairs. However, Tom Brady and co. finally showed some signs of life against Kansas City in Week 4, as Tampa scored 31 PTS on 376 YDS in a 41-31 loss to the Chiefs this past Sunday.

I’ll back Tampa at an adjusted price here, as the Falcons have played decent on both sides of the ball across their opening 2-2 split, however, I doubt this Marcus Mariota led Atlanta squad will find much success on the road against a Bucs’ defense that’s surrendered 14 PTS or less in three-of-four matchups so far this season.

Detroit is having one of the most exciting 1-3 starts in recent memory, as three of the Lions’ first four contests were decided by narrow margins of four points or less, with Jared Goff and co. racking up a league-high 35 PPG on 437 YPG, and defensively, surrendering a league-worst 35.3 PPG on 445 YPG. New England, on the other hand, is having a frustrating start to the season, as the Patriots’ offense averaged just 18.5 PPG on 341 YPG and turned the ball over 10 times across a 1-3 skid to open the year, and the situation is gradually getting worse with Bill Belichick now down to his third QB, Bailey Zappe, after losing both Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer to injury.

However, Zappe looked pretty good in his NFL debut at Lambeau, as he completed 10-of-15 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown after relieving Hoyer in their 27-24 loss to Green Bay last week. Betting the over might feel strange with a third-string QB in the driver’s seat, but the Lions’ defense has surrendered 27+ PTS in four straight games to start the season, and based on what we saw from Zappe’s debut, New England’s offense shouldn’t have much trouble pulling its weight in this matchup.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson