NFL Betting Trends – Week 11

Betting expert and handicapper Bruce Marshall breaks down the top trends for the entire Week 11 NFL slate. Check them out below and be sure to visit our NFL picks page for expert selections on games this week!

Thursday, November 17

Tennessee at Green Bay (Prime Video, 8:15 p.m.)

  • Pack favored, and just 1-3 as chalk this season.
  • Green Bay 7-4 Under since late 2021.
  • Titans now working on seven straight covers, also on 11-3 Under run since late 2021.

Tech Play: Titans, Under
Expert Picks

Sunday, November 20

Washington at Houston (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Wash 3-0-1 vs. line last four this season, also Under 8-3 since late 2021, and 10-6-2 last 18 on board.
  • Lovie Smith now 1-7-1 SU this season.

Tech Play: Commanders, Under
Expert Picks

Philadelphia at Indianapolis (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Birds 8-0 SU but have dropped last two vs. spread away this season and just 1-3 vs. line on road in 2022, also 6-3 Under last nine away.
  • Colts 2-2 vs. line at home this season but are 3-2 as a dog (and 1-0 for Jeff Saturday), now 9-3 last 12 as dog.
  • Indy is 13-2 to Under since late 2021 (though Over hit last week in Vegas).

Tech Play: Colts, Under
Expert Picks

Cleveland at Buffalo (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Brownies now Over 6-2 this season after Dolphins game last week (remember they were 6-1 to Under to close 2021), also 3-2 as dog in 2022.
  • Biils, however, have now dropped three in a row vs. spread after Vikings loss, also 7-2 Under this season even after Over vs. Vikings.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Chicago at Atlanta (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Bears have not had same result in consecutive weeks this season (L last Sunday vs. Lions). 
  • Chicago also Over last four in 2022.
  • Falcons no covers last four this campaign.

Tech Play: Bears, Over
Expert Picks

N.Y. Jets at New England (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Belichick win streak now at 13 in a row vs. Jets and has covered 8 of last 10 against J-Men after recent win at MetLife.
  • Jets have won and covered 5 of last 6 (lone loss to Belichick), also Under four in a row.

Tech Play: Patriots, Under
Expert Picks

Carolina at Baltimore (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Steve Wilks 2-3 SU, 3-2 vs. line with Panthers, who were 3-16 SU and vs. spread previous 19 to his replacing Matt Rhule.
  • Panthers still just 1-3 vs. line away this season and 1-7 last eight away vs. points since mid 2021.
  • Ravens might be starting to move, wins last three and covers last two this season, though 0-3-1 vs. spread at M&T Bank Stadium.

Tech Play: Ravens, Under
Expert Picks

Detroit at N.Y. Giants (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • G-Men now 7-2 SU and vs. line in 2022, also Under 7-2 this season and Under 30-10 since start of 2020 campaign.
  • Lions are 6-3 to Over this season. 

Tech Play: Giants, Under
Expert Picks

L.A. Rams at New Orleans (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Rams are 7-2 to Under this season and 9-2 Under back to late 2021.
  • L.A. 1-4-1 vs. spread last six this season and has lost five of last six outright.  
  • Saints only 3-7 vs. spread in 2021, no wins or covers last three, also Under 7-3 in 2022.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Las Vegas at Denver (FOX, 4:05 p.m.)

  • Raiders have really bullied Broncos lately, winning seven of last eight meetings, covering six of those eight.
  • Though Vegas only 2-8 SU and 3-7 vs. line last ten since late 2021.
  • First meeting was only Denver Over this season, as Broncos 8-1 to Under in 2022, now Under is 20-6 since Vic Fangio days and start of last season. 

Tech Play: Raiders, Under
Expert Picks

Dallas at Minnesota (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)

  • Cowboys had won and covered six of last seven before Pack last week.
  • Dallas has also won and covered last two years vs. Vikes.
  • But Minnesota keeps winning, now 8-1 SU, though only 2-2 vs. line at home.
  • Not sure Vikings favored here, however. Minnesota also Over 7-1 last eight at US Bank Stadium.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)

  • Steel won in an opening-day upset at Cincy, though Bengals had won and covered three previous games.
  • Tomlin 18-9 as dog since early 2019.
  • Bengals 6-1 vs. spread last seven this season, 14-3 vs. line since late 2021, also 10-3 Under since late 2021. 

Tech Play: Bengals, Under
Expert Picks

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers (NBC, 8:20 p.m.)

  • Road team has covered last four meetings and Chargers have covered four of last five in series, including close 27-24 loss (but cover) in Week 2 at Arrowhead.  
  • Last four in series Over as well.
  • Chargers no covers last three at SoFi this season, Chiefs 3-1 SU and vs. spread away.

Tech Play: Chiefs, Over
Expert Picks

Monday, November 21

San Francisco vs. Arizona in Mexico (ESPN, 8:15 p.m.)

  • Teams split last two years, though last four Under in series.
  • This sort of counts as a road game for Big Red (though they are designated host) and note 11-3 SU mark since last season away for Kingsbury, though have lost 2 of last 3 away.
  • Cards also Over last four in 2022 after last-second Rams score pushed that one Over at SoFi last week.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
  • Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.