Super Bowl Odds: Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends for 49ers vs Chiefs

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Super Bowl odds are on the board, with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers packing their bags for Las Vegas. Kansas City is in the big game for the second straight year, in a contest that's a rematch of Super Bowl 54.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Super Bowl odds market: opening lines, spreads and betting trends for both games, as multiple oddsmakers provide insights on Super Bowl 58 odds and action. Check back regularly for updates and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.

Super Bowl Odds

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

• Opening point spread: 49ers -2
• Opening moneyline: 49ers -130/Chiefs +110
• Opening total: Over/Under 47.5 points scored
• Time: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Feb. 11 (CBS)

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Ninety minutes pre-kick, BetMGM remains painted to 49ers -2. Two weeks ago, San Fran opened -2 and sped to -1. But the line has been stagnant at Niners -2 the past week and a half.

Kansas City is landing 63% of spread bets/74% of spread money. The moneyline also tilts toward the Chiefs, at 75% of tickets/72% of money.

One reason K.C.'s moneyline advantage isn't larger: an hour ago, BetMGM took a $1 million bet on San Fran moneyline -130.

Even with that, though, the book is backing the Niners.

"We're still very heavy to the Chiefs. We just need the 49ers in any way. The Chiefs winning in any way is the worst scenario," BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini.

After being nailed to 47.5 most of the past two weeks, the total dipped to 47 this afternoon at BetMGM. The Over is getting 60% of bets, but 55% of cash is on the Under.

UPDATE 11 A.M. ET SUNDAY: With 7.5 hours until the biggest spectacle Las Vegas has ever seen gets underway, Caesars Sports has the 49ers as 1.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl 58 odds board. Caesars opened the Niners -2 on Jan. 28 and, like everybody else that same night, quickly fell back to -1.

San Francisco was painted at -2 from Jan. 30 until midafternoon Saturday, when Caesars shortened to -1.5.

Spread tickets and money are both in the 2/1 range on Kansas City. On the moneyline, 70% of tickets/61% of dollars are on the Chiefs.

Caesars VP of trading Craig Mucklow was in full Taylor Swift form this morning in analyzing the game.

"The bettors are the Chiefs' 'Lover,' which has made the book 49ers fans when including futures payouts," Mucklow said. "We are looking at Travis Kelce to 'Shake It Off' from his recent run of form and have a less-than-average game.

"On the 49ers' side, Kyle Juszczyk and Christian McCaffrey are popular to let the 49er bettors go back to California in 'Style.'"

As for the total, Caesars opened at 48 and has been pinned to 47.5 pretty much the entire past two weeks. Tickets and money are just beyond 2/1 on the Over.

And an interesting note from Caesars Sports on player props: Kelce and McCaffrey both have more Anytime Touchdown tickets than 49ers spread and moneyline tickets combined.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Less than 24 hours pre-kick, Station Sports – which operates several nice sportsbooks around Las Vegas – just moved the 49ers from -2 to -1.5. Almost two weeks ago, San Fran opened -2 and quickly dropped to -1, only to rebound and stick at -2 for the past week and a half.

Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said Kansas City is taking 62% of spread tickets and 72% of moneyline tickets.

"The larger wagers have been on the 49ers. All the six-figure wagers are on the Niners," Esposito said, noting Station took two six-figure spread bets – at Niners -1 and -1.5 – and one six-figure play on San Fran moneyline -130.

But as noted by ticket counts, Kansas City is plenty popular, as is the Over, which is getting 71% of tickets. The total remains painted to 47.5.

"Chiefs and Over is an extremely popular bet. I think it's just a matter of giving points to No. 15. That's what everybody's feeling," Esposito said.

Unlike many other books, Esposito said Station is "in really good shape with both teams" in the futures market. So the book can focus its attention on the the game itself.

"One of the keys for us is keeping the game Under. And avoiding as many Travis Kelce props as possible," he said.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: TwinSpires Sportsbook, like elsewhere, has been pretty much painted to 49ers -2 for more than a week. San Francisco opened -2.5 on Jan. 28 and quickly slid down to -1 that evening. But the Niners rebounded to -2 by midweek last week.

All that noted, Kansas City continues to be the popular play. The Chiefs are taking 75% of spread tickets/82% of spread money, and 68% of moneyline tickets/76% of moneyline dollars.

"The Chiefs are clearly the popular side in this matchup. It's hard to pass up on Patrick Mahomes as a 'dog," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. "We've seen some respected money on 49ers -1.5 and -2. As it stands right now, we’ll need San Francisco."

The total opened and has been quite steady at 47.5, with bettors leaning toward the Over, but not heavily so. The Over is netting 62% of tickets/60% of money.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Caesars Sports opened San Francisco -2 in the wake of the Jan. 28 conference championship games. In short order that same night, the 49ers dipped to -1.

The line then toggled between San Fran -1/-1.5 on Jan. 29, before returning to -2 Jan. 30. It's been painted to Niners -2 ever since.

"The heavier volume of wagers is on the Chiefs, but the bigger bets are on the 49ers," Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said, noting heavy San Fran Super Bowl futures liability continues to be a strong factor in his shop's need. "If you bake in the futures, we're still Chiefs fans."

Those bigger bets Mucklow alluded to have mostly been on the moneyline. Almost right out of the gate last week, Caesars took a $1 million play on 49ers moneyline -120. On Thursday, a $500,000 49ers -125 bet landed, and this morning, there was a $136,000 49ers -130 bet placed.

"They're the better team," Mucklow said of the Niners. "It's no surprise, because the million-dollar bet is from a very respected customer of ours."

Indeed, early in the college football season, Mucklow noted that the same bettor wagered $50,000 on Michigan +850 to win the national championship. The customer cashed for a profit of $425,000.

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: With just six more sleeps until game day, the 49ers remain pinned to -2 at BetMGM. It's been at San Fran -2 since the middle of last week, after opening -2 and initially falling back to -1.

Also consistent: The Chiefs continue to take a significant bulk of the action. Spread tickets are running 2.5/1 and spread money almost 3/1 on Kansas City. On the moneyline, ticket count is almost 5/1 and money 3/1 on K.C.

When this matchup was first set on Jan. 28, BetMGM had significant Super Bowl futures liability to San Francisco and was rooting for the Chiefs. That might not be the case much longer.

"By kickoff, we'll probably be rooting for the 49ers. It's been nothing but Chiefs action. If it keeps going, it will be enough to take over our 49ers futures liability," BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.

BetMGM opened the total at 47, quickly adjusted to 47.5 and hasn't moved for the past week. Tickets and money are in the 2/1 range on the Over.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This morning, the 49ers moved from -2 to -2.5 on The SuperBook's Super Bowl odds board. That's despite continued heavier action on the Chiefs, on both the spread and moneyline. San Francisco opened -2 Sunday night and quickly fell to -1, then rebounded to -2 early in the week.

"We talked a little bit this morning," SuperBook executive director John Murray said of he and his risk team discussing a move. "We are still seeing most of our tickets on Kansas City, two-thirds of spread tickets are on the Chiefs. But our bigger tickets and most importantly our sharper players have been on San Francisco so far.

"We think this is the way the market is gonna move. It's going toward 2.5, so we want to go there now."

Murray said the sharper action came earlier in the week, at Niners -1/-1.5. Now, The SuperBook will see how bettors respond to 49ers -2.5, though Chiefs resistance action has been nominal so far.

"There are still eight days until the game. Sometimes, it's a good idea to get off-market and see if anybody bites," Murray said.

On the moneyline, K.C. is seeing 63% of tickets at The SuperBook. The Chiefs are currently +115 and the Niners -135.

The SuperBook opened the total at 47.5 Sunday night, quickly went to 48, but almost as quickly returned to 47.5. There's been no movement since.

"We haven't discussed moving the number," Murray said. "They're betting the Over. The public is always gonna bet the Over. It's not too noteworthy, in my opinion."

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: In BetMGM's Super Bowl odds market, K.C. is even taking lopsided money in first-quarter and first-half wagering so far. The Chiefs are +0.5 on the first-quarter spread – pick 'em, ostensibly – with tickets 3/1 and money 7/1 on Kansas City. Similarly, the Chiefs are +0.5 on the first-half spread, with tickets 3/1 and money almost 6/1 on Kansas City.

BetMGM's first-quarter and first-half moneylines are more of the same. Kansas City opened -105 and is now even money on the first-quarter moneyline, with ticket count almost 4/1 and money 9/1. On the first-half moneyline, the Chiefs opened -110 and are now +105, even while taking 81% of tickets/87% of cash.

On full-game action, as alluded to above, spread and moneyline wagering remains heavy to the Chiefs.

"Zero change so far. It will be interesting to see if any huge money comes in from some early birds in Vegas this weekend, though," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee.

Despite all the Kansas City action thus far, Magee said the book still needs the Chiefs. That's because, as noted earlier this week (see below), BetMGM has substantial liability to the 49ers in the Super Bowl futures market.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: TwinSpires Sportsbook opened the Niners -2.5 Sunday night and quickly dipped to -1.5, then got to -1 Monday. San Francisco has since rebounded to -2, but make no mistake, it's all Kansas City early.

"No surprise, the majority of the bets coming in are on the Chiefs, spread and moneyline," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. "Despite the 49ers being a worse decision for us in the futures market, I'd expect we'll still need them come kickoff, with how popular K.C. is."

The Chiefs are taking 78% of early spread tickets/77% of early spread money. Similarly on the moneyline, it's 70% tickets/82% money on Kansas City. The moneyline is currently at San Fran -129/K.C. +107.

TwinSpires' total is painted to 47.5, with no movement since Sunday night. The Over is netting 63% of early tickets/60% of early money.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Earlier today, BetMGM sent across its early national numbers, a first glimpse at betting on Super Bowl 58 odds. BetMGM opened at Niners -2 and within a few minutes Sunday night fell back to -1 flat, then -1 (-120).

This afternoon, the book split the difference and moved to San Francisco -1.5, where the line remains tonight. Spread tickets 2.5/1 and spread money almost 4/1 on Kansas City. Moneyline action is even more tilted toward the Chiefs, at 6/1 tickets and 5/1 money.

BetMGM Nevada is serving as a microcosm of that action. Scott Shelton said spread tickets are running 2/1 and spread money 6/1 on the Chiefs in BetMGM's Las Vegas market. On the moneyline, it's 3.5/1 tickets and 10/1 money on K.C.

For the moment, though, Shelton is OK with that, because the 49ers are a huge Super Bowl futures liability, in Vegas and nationally.

"If they were piling on the Niners, it'd be double-or-nothing. We could win really big or lose really big. This way, it might not be that bad," Shelton said. "But we'll see Niner money. We're too close to California not to. It'll come. It always does."

The total opened at 47 and nudged up to 47.5. For BetMGM nationally, early ticket count is 5/1 and early money 9/1 on the Over. Similarly at BetMGM Nevada, it's 5/1 tickets and 12/1 money on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: San Francisco (14-5 SU/9-10 ATS) dug itself into a 24-7 halftime hole against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. Then the Niners proceeded to dig themselves out by outscoring the Lions 27-7 in the second half.

That gave San Fran a 34-31 victory, though the Niners failed to cover as 7-point home favorites. The 49ers are on an 0-3 ATS skid and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.

Kansas City (14-6 SU/12-7-1 ATS) punched a return ticket to the Super Bowl, where it aims to defend its title. In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs ousted No. 1 seed Baltimore 17-10 as 4.5-point road underdogs.

Kansas City never trailed and forced two second-half red-zone turnovers. The Chiefs looked off-kilter late in the regular season. However, Andy Reid's troops are on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear now.

The SuperBook opened San Fran -2 on the Super Bowl 58 odds board, and the number immediately got bet down to -1.5. It then dipped to Niners -1 late this evening.

"This was a difficult line to make. Definitely some scrambling as San Francisco made its second-half comeback," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said. "San Francisco's offense is so good that they were gonna be favored against anyone."

Michaelson noted two components that kept The SuperBook from opening higher.

"The San Francisco defense has looked really suspect recently, and Christian McCaffrey looked injured at the end of the game. Otherwise, we would've opened toward 49ers -3."

Check out our list of the best NFL betting sites before you place a bet on Super Bowl action!

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson