2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Trump Surges, Biden Sliding

U.S. presidential election odds remain a major topic this summer, more so in the wake of an apparent assassination attempt of presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

After the June 27 debate, there was plenty of volatility in odds to win the US presidential election. In fact, there were loud rumblings of President Joe Biden not even being the Democratic nominee.

Now, after Saturday's near-tragic incident, President Joe Biden's status as the Democratic nominee is firming up, but he's losing ground to Trump in presidential odds.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 US presidential election odds: action, line movement and betting trends, with insights from sportsbooks in Canada and the United Kingdom/Ireland, where betting on politics is legal.

US Presidential Election Odds

Market on the Move

Donald Trump is out to a -400 favorite at BetMGM UK. (Getty)

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JULY 17: Ladbrokes Politics briefly suspended its US presidential odds market after Saturday's shooting. Kyle McGrath, head of political betting for Ladbrokes, said that upon reopening, the market was volatile.

Things have since stabilized, with a bigger favorite emerging.

"Betting markets would seem to suggest that this has dramatically increased Trump's chances of winning the presidency. He is now -300," McGrath said. "It has also had a massive impact on the Democrat side. Joe Biden is now +600 to win the Presidency."

After getting as short as +400 last week, Vice President Kamala Harris fell back as far as +1000. However, with more speculation this week on whether Biden ends up as the nominee, Harris joins Biden at +600 in Ladbrokes' odds to win the presidential election.

"I think we can presume that the betting markets believed that this story would pause the campaign and dominate the news headlines for long enough to stall any momentum that had built up surrounding Biden's replacement," McGrath said. "We've also seen over the course of the last few weeks that there is a direct correlation between Biden's chances improving and Trump's.

"In other words, bettors believe that Trump has a better chance of beating Biden than a potential replacement."

And a Trump win would be a win for Ladbrokes customers.

"As a company, purely from a fieldbook perspective, a Trump victory would be a bad result for us. As a general rule, we tend to see more money for populist right-wing candidates, but even more so when that candidate is Donald Trump," McGrath said.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, JULY 15: On Friday, Biden not only trailed Trump, but also Vice President Kamala Harris. BetMGM UK's 2024 U.S. presidential election odds had Trump at -225, Harris at +325 and Biden at +425.

Following a lot of market movement over the weekend, BetMGM UK is now at Trump -400/Biden +400/Harris +1000. At other sportsbooks across the pond, there's a range of odds on all three:

  • Trump is generally in the -300 to -400 range, including -333 at Paddy Power. Ladbrokes Politics is on the lower end of the spectrum, at -275.
  • Biden ranges from +400 to +500, including 5/1 on Ladbrokes and +450 at Paddy Power.
  • Harris has a wider range, from +800 to +1200, including +1000 at both Ladbrokes Politics and Paddy Power.

In Ontario, Canada, which represents one of the newest betting jurisdictions in North America, political odds are a legal market. However, FanDuel Sportsbook took a different tack in Saturday's aftermath, releasing this statement:

"In light of recent events, FanDuel has made the decision to suspend its US election markets."

To be determined: When/if FanDuel will put presidential election odds back on the board. At the moment, all bets are live action, unless otherwise specified.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY, JULY 11: Today brought more changes at Ladbrokes Politics, where Biden is once again trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in odds to win the presidential election and odds to be the Democratic nominee.

"It's been a busy few hours. Harris is now into even money to win the nomination and 4/1 to win the presidency," Ladbrokes head of political betting Kyle McGrath said.

Correspondingly, Biden slipped to +150 to be the Dem nominee and is +800 in US presidential election odds. That makes him the third choice, behind Trump – still in the -200 range as favorite – and Harris.

Interestingly, BetMGM UK's presidential election odds vary from Ladbrokes' numbers. Trump is the -225 favorite, Biden is the +450 second choice and Harris the +600 third choice.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY, JULY 5: It's getting messier by the day at the White House and for the Democratic Party. And that mess is showing up in presidential election odds.

The Fourth of July holiday did nothing to help Biden's prospects, which in fact worsened. The beneficiary: His Vice President, Kamala Harris.

"We've seen sustained support for Kamala Harris over the last 24 hours. She's now just +110 to win the nomination and +400 to win the Presidency, in from +168 and +600, respectively," said Kyle McGrath, head of political betting for Ladbrokes. "Gavin Newsom continues to drift as it looks more and more likely that it could be a straight shootout between Biden and his VP."

Earlier today, Biden was +600 to win the election and +138 to be the Dem nominee at Ladbrokes. He's now out to 8/1 to get a second term and the +175 second choice to be the nominee.

Trump remains the favorite, in the -175 range.

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JULY 3: Other than Donald Trump remaining the favorite in odds to win the US presidential election, everything else has been turned on its head in the past 24 hours.

And really in just the past 60 minutes. The New York Times reported that President Joe Biden told an ally that he is weighing whether to continue in the race. That's in the wake of a dismal debate performance last week.

The White House is denying the report, but bettors and oddsmakers are off and running, regardless.

"Presumably fueled by the New York Times piece, the odds have changed drastically in the last hour. Biden is now 8/1, from 4/1, to win the election, as well as 2/1, from 1/2, to win the nomination," McGrath said.

Political betting is legal and robust in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and bettors particularly enjoy wagering on U.S. politics. And they're not looking toward Biden at the moment.

"In contrast, Harris is now 4/1 to win the election, from 8/1, and 11/8, from 4/1, to win the nomination," McGrath said.

Trump is currently the -167 favorite at Ladbrokes.

"Trump's price has been largely unaffected, while we've nudged in other Democratic candidates slightly. But generally speaking, Harris appears to be the one bettors are viewing as Biden's natural successor," McGrath said.

Paddy Power spokesperson Rachael Kane said it's a similar story at her shop.

"Customers' interest in Gavin Newsom has quieted the past few days. Most of his interest was seen in the hours following the debate," Kane said. "Twenty-six percent of bets on Kamala Harris have been placed in the past seven days. But it has been fairly spread out, rather than a big spike post-debate.

"Trump is still the most-backed candidate by Paddy Power customers. But it has slowed down since the debate."

Trump remains in the -175 range to win the election.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY, JUNE 28: Ninety minutes of debate between Biden and Trump definitely made an impression on bettors Thursday night and into Friday. Biden visibly struggled throughout the debate, leading to a surge of action and improved odds on Trump both during and after the contest.

"It's been the busiest day so far for election betting," Ladbrokes' McGrath said. "At the start of the debate, we had Donald Trump -137 and Joe Biden +175 to win the election, with Biden a -700 [favorite] to win the Democratic nomination.

"Shortly after the debate concluded, this had changed to -175 Trump vs. +300 Biden, with Biden out to -175 just to win the Democratic nomination."

Biden eventually slipped as far as +400 to win the election and is at +300 at Ladbrokes a day after the debate.

Paddy Power also made several shifts in its US presidential election odds market. Before the debate, short favorite Trump was toggling between -137 and -150. Post-debate, Trump got to -200, and he's now -175.

Biden was shifting between +150 and +188 pre-debate, and +300/+400 in the aftermath. Biden is currently +400.

Paddy Power also made a significant shift on California Gov. Gavin Newsom's odds to win the U.S. presidential election. Newsom was +2000 pre-debate and moved all the way into +650 afterward.

"It looks like our customers believe Newsom is Biden his time. They're backing Newsom in droves," Paddy Power's Kane said, while apologizing for the Biden pun. "But Trump continues to be the favorite, in betting at least."

The Action Network's Andrew Lynch reported on significant odds shifts at BetMGM UK, as well.

Who Will Be The Nominee?

Gavin Newsom is making waves in Democratic nominee odds. (Getty)

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, JULY 3: As McGrath noted above, Harris is the big beneficiary today in both Democratic nomination odds and presidential election odds.

Last week, in the wake of Thursday's debate, both Ladbrokes and Paddy Power said Gavin Newsom was really the big winner. His odds moved much more than the prices of either Trump or Biden.

But Harris now appears to be in the driver's seat for the nomination, amid heightened speculation/reporting that Biden might drop out.

A week ago at Paddy Power, Harris was +1400 to be the nominee. Now, she's the +110 favorite, followed by Biden at +225 and Newsom at +700.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY, JUNE 28: As McGrath previously pointed out, Democratic presidential nominee odds also got a jolt. Prior to the debate, Biden was the -700 favorite to be his party's nominee, a virtual lock as the incumbent.

But as the debate rolled on, and in the aftermath Friday, Biden's odds took a hit, while other Democrats started seeing action at Ladbrokes.

"Such was the business we were seeing on a range of Democratic candidates, we made the decision to suspend the betting on next Dem nominee overnight," McGrath said. "The [shortest] price Biden hit today as Dem nominee was -162. This has now settled down to -200 for the nomination."

Biden's odds pain proved to be an odds gain for the current governor of California.

"Gavin Newsom has been the biggest winner so far, in now to 7/1 from 25/1 to win the presidency, and 3/1 from 10/1 to win the nomination. We've also seen support for Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer," McGrath said.

There's been some buzz in political circles about Michelle Obama – wife of 44th President Barack Obama – as a possible nominee. But Ladbrokes isn't seeing much on that yet, with long odds on the former First Lady.

"Any sort of indication she would even consider running, though, and I'd expect her price to plummet instantly," McGrath said.