NCAA Tournament Odds: Polymarket Has Michigan, Arizona Favorites

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

The 2026 NCAA Tournament has reached the Round of 16, and the first weekend lived up to the "Madness" moniker with a historic exit by the defending champions and several programs breaking decades-long droughts.

Updated on 3/25/26

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Tournament Context & Landscape

The bracket has been whittled down to 16 teams, with the Big Ten and SEC asserting significant dominance. Notably, for the second consecutive season, mid-major programs were shut out of the round of 16, leaving a field comprised entirely of high-major programs.

Key Storylines:

• The Fall of the Champion: The biggest shock of the tournament came in the South Region, where the No. 1 seed and defending national champion Florida Gators were ousted in the second round by the Iowa Hawkeyes.
• Historical Milestones: Nebraska made headlines by securing its first-ever NCAA Tournament win in program history, subsequently parlaying that momentum into a round of 16 berth.
• The "Darling" of the East: St. John’s is back in the second weekend for the first time since 1999, led by a gritty squad that has captured the neutral fan's attention.
• Star Power: The tournament remains a showcase for elite NBA prospects, specifically Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr., both of whom have carried their teams through early scares.

Notable Matchup Recaps

(9) Iowa 73, (1) Florida 72

In a game that will be remembered for years, the Hawkeyes ended Florida’s bid for a repeat. Florida led for much of the night, but Iowa’s Alvaro Folgueiras drained a cold-blooded 3-pointer from the corner with just 4.5 seconds remaining to give Iowa the one-point lead. A final defensive stop secured the upset, making Florida the first No. 1 seed to exit the 2026 bracket.

(5) St. John’s 67, (4) Kansas 65

This was a classic back-and-forth battle in San Diego. The Red Storm saw a 12-point lead evaporate late in the second half as Kansas surged back. However, in the closing seconds, Dylan Darling—who had been scoreless the entire game—drove to the rim and banked in a buzzer-beating layup to send St. John’s to Washington, D.C.

(4) Nebraska 74, (5) Vanderbilt 72

Nebraska’s historic run continued in a thriller that came down to the final possession. After a back-and-forth second half, Braden Frager delivered a layup with 2.2 seconds left to put the Cornhuskers ahead. Vanderbilt’s Tyler Tanner nearly answered with a half-court heave that rattled in and out, allowing Nebraska to advance to its first-ever Sweet 16.

(11) Texas 74, (3) Gonzaga 68

The Longhorns, who started their journey in the First Four, officially became the "bracket busters" of the West Region. Behind a disciplined defensive effort, Texas stifled Gonzaga’s high-powered offense, ending Mark Few’s season earlier than expected. Texas remains the only double-digit seed left in the field.

Upcoming Round of 16 Matchups (March 26–27)

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson