Xavier vs. Butler Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Xavier Musketeers are trying to hold on to first place in the Big East Conference over the last few weeks of the regular season. Xavier is sitting at 11-2 in conference play, putting them just one game ahead of rivals Marquette, Creighton, and Providence.

The Musketeers are 3-1 against those three teams with two games left to play, but both of those remaining games are on the road. That means they can't afford a loss to a middle-of-the-road team, especially since they already lost to DePaul, so they will look to take care of business against the Butler Bulldogs on Friday night.

Two of the most recent Big East newcomers will meet up on Friday, February 10, 2023, when the Butler Bulldogs host the Xavier Musketeers. This game will be played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana at 7:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Butler Bulldogs Betting Prediction

It's been a rough season for Thad Matta and the Butler Bulldogs. Butler played well in non-conference action, posting an 8-3 record with wins over Kansas State and BYU. However, the rigors of Big East play have proven to be too much for this squad. The Bulldogs are just 4-10 against conference opponents, and none of those victories came against a team that is currently in position to make the NCAA Tournament. Still, Xavier is only a five-point favorite by the college basketball betting odds due to the absence of Zach Freemantle. The loss of Freemantle hurts, but the Musketeers should still be able to handle the Bulldogs on Friday night.

Score Prediction: Xavier 75, Butler 63
Best Bet: Xavier -7

Xavier Musketeers vs. Butler Bulldogs Betting Odds

Xavier Musketeers vs. Butler Bulldogs Betting Resources

Date: Friday, Feb. 10, 2023
TV-Time: FS1, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse
Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
Matchup
Expert Picks

Big East Tournament Odds

Xavier Musketeers vs. Butler Bulldogs Betting Stats

Xavier Musketeers
SU: 19-5
ATS: 13-10
O/U: 17-6
PPG: 83.3
OPPG: 76

Butler Bulldogs
SU: 12-13
ATS: 11-13
O/U: 8-16
PPG: 66.5
OPPG: 67.7

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Xavier Musketeers Betting Analysis

The loss of Zach Freemantle is a big deal for Xavier. Freemantle is one of the best big men in the Big East, and he was the leading rebounder for the Musketeers. He will miss the next few weeks with a foot injury, so Jack Nunge and others will need to carry the load on the glass. Nunge is averaging 14.8 PPG and 7.9 RPG as a 7'0 senior, but he tends to play outside the paint a lot because he is a 44.1% three-point shooter. That could change a bit now that the only other player in the rotation that is taller than 6'6 is 6'8 Jerome Hunter.

All five of Xavier's starters are great three-point shooters. Adam Kunkel is the only starter that is hitting less than 40% from beyond the arc, and he is almost at that mark with 39.8%. Leading scorer Souley Boum is averaging 16.3 PPG while making 41.8% of his threes, Colby Jones is averaging 15.0 PPG and making 42.1% of his threes, and Freemantle is a surprisingly effective three-point shooter too on the rare occasions he lets it go from range. It shouldn't come as a shock then that the Musketeers rank first nationally in three-point shooting, hitting 40.4% as a team from beyond the arc.

That has made Xavier the fifth best offense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. However, the defense has had some issues. The Musketeers don't defend the perimeter well, allowing teams to make 37% of their threes against this team, and they don't force a lot of turnovers. Boum, Jones, and Nunge have a decent number of steals, but the Musketeers rank in the bottom 100 in turnover rate.

Butler Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Thad Matta's teams were offensively challenged during the tail end of his career with Ohio State, and that is certainly the case with the Butler Bulldogs this season. Butler is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to offensive efficiency, but they struggle with the intangibles. The Bulldogs are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, and their guards give the ball up too often. Additionally, Butler doesn't get to the line often, and that's a big problem considering they don't get second chances.

Jayden Taylor is the team's leading scorer with 12.2 PPG while making 41.7% of his field goals. Center Manny Bates is averaging 11.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG, while Simas Lukosius is the only reliable three-point shooter, sinking triples at a 41.2% clip. However, it looks like the Bulldogs will be without second leading scorer Chuck Harris who was injured against Seton Hall and has missed the last two games.

Butler does play solid defense. The Bulldogs rarely foul opponents, ranking in the top five nationally in foul rate, and opposing teams are only making 32.1% of their threes against this team. That was the main reason why the Bulldogs knocked off St. John's in their last game.