Duke vs. Virginia Picks, Predictions, Odds

There is currently a three-way tie for first place in the ACC. The Virginia Cavaliers are the favorites to win the conference title per the college basketball betting odds, but they are neck-and-neck with the Clemson Tigers and the Pittsburgh Panthers at this moment.

Virginia has only a couple tricky games the rest of the way, yet one of those comes this Saturday when they host the Duke Blue Devils. The good news for UVA is that Duke is 2-7 against Quad 1 opponents, and the Blue Devils have yet to win a road game versus a quality team yet this season.

On Saturday, February 11, 2023, the Virginia Cavaliers will welcome the Duke Blue Devils to John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia for the lone meeting between these ACC teams this year. Tip-off is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Prediction

Duke will be a popular pick, as the Blue Devils are one of the most public teams in the country. That can lead to inflated lines involving the Blue Devils, although that effect is somewhat muted with the retirement of Coach K. Virginia matches up very well with Duke, and although the Wahoos have historically struggled with one of the best programs in the ACC, they will emerge victorious this time.

Score Prediction: Virginia 64, Duke 56
Best Bet: Virginia -5.5

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Odds

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, Feb. 11, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET
Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
Matchup
Expert Picks

ACC Tournament Odds

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Stats

Duke Blue Devils
SU: 17-7
ATS: 9-15
O/U: 8-15-1
PPG: 71.9
OPPG: 64.1

Virginia Cavaliers
SU: 18-4
ATS: 9-12-1
O/U: 12-10
PPG: 70.0
OPPG: 60.4

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Duke Blue Devils Betting Analysis

The Blue Devils were co-favorites to win the ACC with rivals North Carolina at the start of the season. Duke brought in an incredible recruiting class with three of the top four players in the country per 247 Sports, but these young players haven't been as effective as they would have hoped. Kyle Filipowski has been the best of the bunch and leads the team with 15.5 PPG and 9.3 RPG.

However, he has not been very efficient as 7'0 centers usually are in this day and age. Dariq Whitehead has missed the last few weeks with a leg injury, but he is expected to return to action tomorrow. Dereck Lively II hasn't been much of a factor on offense, yet he has been excellent on defense.

Jeremy Roach is the leader of this team. Roach is the second leading scorer on the squad, averaging 12.5 PPG, and he leads Duke with 3.0 APG. He came up big in the win over North Carolina last week, and he will have the unenviable task of doing much of the ball handling against UVA's pack line defense.

Duke has been better on defense than offense this season. The Blue Devils rank 57th in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy, while they rank 32nd in defensive efficiency. Lively has been superb on this end with his shotblocking ability and rebounding, and the Blue Devils don't send opponents to the line very often. They will need to be strong defending the perimeter on Saturday though, as Virginia is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Analysis

After a few down years, the Virginia Cavaliers are competitive once more under Tony Bennett. Virginia is the highest ranked team in the ACC, and the Wahoos are well-balanced on both sides of the ball. Four players are averaging between 10.2 PPG and 12.2 PPG, and the three guards in that group are all hitting at least 39% of their threes. Armaan Franklin leads the way in this regard, but Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman are close behind. Clark and Beekman are great passers too, combining to averaging 11.0 APG with both players ranking in the top 40 nationally in assist rate.

The Cavaliers run a slow, pragmatic offense that prioritizes ball control and quality shots. They run at one of the slowest tempos in the country, but they usually get good looks at the rim and don't turn the ball over. This is an experienced unit too as every starter on the team is either a junior or a senior. That's been a key to success for Bennett's best teams during his time in Charlottesville.

Virginia's defense isn't as feared as it was a few years ago, but the Wahoos have a top 25 defense. They are strong on the interior, yet the perimeter defense hasn't been as solid as it was in they heyday of the Pack Line Defense. That being said, Duke is a very young team, so the Blue Devils will likely have a very difficult time trying to score against this unit.