Auburn vs. Alabama Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Auburn Tigers need to win one of their final two games in order to feel good about earning an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Auburn was 16-3 five weeks ago and had no such worries, but the Tigers have since lost seven of their last 10 games. They will now finish 9-9 if they lose both of their remaining games, and they will take on the Alabama Crimson Tide on Wednesday night before facing Tennessee this weekend.

On March 1, 2023, the Alabama Crimson Tide will welcome the Auburn Tigers to Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Tip off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 in the home finale for the Crimson Tide.

Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Prediction

Auburn missed out on a golden opportunity to defeat Alabama at home two-and-a-half weeks ago. The Tigers had a five point lead with less than 10 minutes left in the second half, as Crimson Tide superstar Brandon Miller was being shut out from deep. Rylan Griffen came off the bench and had a big impact to lead Alabama to a victory, as Auburn really struggled from the floor.

The Tigers made less than 35% of their field goals in that game, so it's clear they need to have more success on offense if they are going to pull off the upset in this one. They have not been great on offense this year, but Auburn will create enough scoring to cover the number here.

Best Bet: Auburn +10
Score Prediction: Alabama 77 Auburn 72

Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds

Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Resources

Date: Wednesday, Mar. 1, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Coleman Coliseum
Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Matchup
Expert Picks

Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Stats

Auburn Tigers
SU: 19-10
ATS: 13-16
O/U: 16-13
PPG: 72.1
OPPG: 65.8

Alabama Crimson Tide
SU: 25-4
ATS: 17-12
O/U: 13-15
PPG: 83.3
OPPG: 69.1

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Auburn Tigers Betting Analysis

Only a handful of teams have been worse at shooting the ball from the perimeter than the Auburn Tigers this season. Auburn is making just 30.2% of its threes, and that's the main reason why the offense has underperformed. Jaylin Williams is making 37.2% of his treys, and he is the only decent threat from range. Wendell Green and K.D. Johnson continue to fire away, but they are making less than 30% of their attempts from downtown.

That has forced Auburn to try and get the ball to its bigs in order to put points on the board. Johni Broome has been the best weapon on this end for the Tigers, leading the team with 14.1 PPG and 8.6 RPG. He is a 6'10 sophomore that is making 52.4% of his field goals, but he didn't perform well in Auburn's previous clash with Alabama. His size did help the Tigers grab 16 offensive rebounds though even with Alabama playing three big men for the majority of the game.

Auburn does have an elite defense. The Tigers rank 17th in defensive efficiency by Ken Pomeroy's metrics. They do an excellent job closing out on three-point shooters in their own right, allowing teams to make a scant 28.4% of their attempts from distance. The Tigers also rank in the top 25 in two-point defense, and they do an excellent job of blocking shots thanks to Broome, Williams, and Dylan Cardwell.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

The Alabama Crimson Tide and superstar Brandon Miller have been in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons over the last week. Miller is unlikely to be charged with a crime after giving a gun to a teammate that was subsequently used by another party in the fatal shooting of a 23-year-old woman, but it has brought all sorts of unwanted attention on the Crimson Tide. He was considered the probable No. 3 overall pick in this summer's NBA Draft prior to the news, yet that has been thrown into question even though he continues to put up big numbers.

Although Miller is still playing at a superstar level, Alabama might be cracking a bit under the pressure of both high expectations and the negative attitude surrounding the program in the aftermath of the Miller news. The Crimson Tide only beat South Carolina by two points despite being a 17-point favorite by the college basketball betting odds, and they weren't in position to cover the number against Arkansas for almost the entire game over the weekend.

Alabama has a top five defense per Pomeroy as the Crimson Tide rank second nationally in three-point defense (27.4%) and first nationally in two-point defense (42.1%). Their ability to score a lot of points while playing at tempo definitely helps in that regard as opponents try to keep up with Alabama on the scoreboard. That defense was lackluster against both South Carolina and Arkansas though, and the Razorbacks scored 35 points in the final 10 minutes against this team.