ACC Quarterfinal North Carolina vs. Virginia Picks, Predictions, Odds

The North Carolina Tar Heels took care of business on Wednesday night. They hammered the Boston College Eagles to pick up a much needed 20th win and advance to the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. However, Joe Lunardi still has last year's NCAA Tournament runner-up among the first four teams on the outside of the bubble. North Carolina can probably get on the right side of the bubble with a win over the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday night, but that's a big if considering how well the Wahoos play defense.

The ACC Tournament continues on Thursday, March 9, 2023. The North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers will square off in the third quarterfinal of the day with the winner facing either Clemson or NC State in the semifinals on Friday. This game is scheduled to tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN from Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Prediction

These teams split their two regular season meetings with Virginia winning at home by seven points on January 10 and UNC avenging that loss with an eight-point victory in Chapel Hill on February 25. Both teams stumbled down the stretch, but this North Carolina team has always seemed like it had another gear this season. The Tar Heels will have the benefit of a very pro-UNC crowd cheering them on in Greensboro, so look for them to pull off the upset over the Cavaliers.

Best Bet: North Carolina +2.5
Score Prediction: North Carolina 67 Virginia 62

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Odds

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, Mar. 9, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Greensboro Coliseum
Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
Matchup
Expert Picks

ACC Tournament Odds

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Stats

North Carolina Tar Heels
SU: 20-12
ATS: 11-20-1
O/U: 14-18
PPG: 76.5
OPPG: 71.3

Virginia Cavaliers
SU: 23-6
ATS: 10-17-2
O/U: 15-14
PPG: 68.2
OPPG: 60.5

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Analysis

It's certainly been disappointing to watch North Carolina this season. The Tar Heels put it all together in their run to the NCAA Championship Game last year, but then they blew a big lead to Kansas to miss out on the title. Still, North Carolina seemed set to have a big year in 2022-23 with four starters returning from that team. Unfortunately, they have seemingly regressed as the perimeter shooting has been dreadful and there have been too many missed assignments on defense.

The key to North Carolina's success in this game will be Armando Bacot. The 6'11 senior is averaging 16.3 PPG and 10.7 RPG, and he only played a single minute before leaving with an injury in UNC's loss to UVA earlier this campaign. Bacot is a superb rebounder and can help box out to give his teammates boards too, and that allowed the Tar Heels to outboard the Cavaliers a couple weeks ago. He takes up so much attention that it helps fellow big man Pete Nance against smaller teams, as Nance had 22 points and four blocks against the Cavaliers.

UNC needs decent play from its guards too. Caleb Love has really struggled against Virginia this season, failing to hit his three-point opportunities. R.J. Davis has fared a little better though, and he has shown that he can find openings in the pack line defense. Depth is a concern with UNC as its five starters are all averaging 30+ MPG, but fatigue shouldn't be a big deal at this point.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Analysis

This is a typical Tony Bennett team, though not as talented as some of the squads he had in the late 2010s. Virginia has a few quality 'Three-and-D' guards, and the Cavaliers use a lot of the shot clock in order to get off quality shots. They are one of the five slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo, but they also have one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation too.

Jayden Gardner is the frontcourt player to watch for Virginia. Gardner is averaging 11.8 PPG and 5.5 RPG for the Cavaliers, and he is making 51.9% of his field goals on the season. However, he is only 6'6, and the only other player taller than him that is receiving significant playing time is 6'8 Ben Vander Plas. Gardner and Vander Plas will be put to the test by UNC's tall frontcourt, and they will need to hold their own under the basket.

Opponents can't focus on just one or two of Virginia's guards. Armaan Franklin is averaging 12.6 PPG and making 38.7% of his threes, Kihei Clark is averaging 11.1 PPG and making 37% of his threes, and Reece Beekman is averaging 9.3 PPG while knocking down 38.2% of his triples. This offense always tries to find the open man, so defenses must remain alert and not let their guard down.