Big 12 Championship Game Preview: Kansas vs. Texas

The last two Big 12 champions will square off for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday evening.

The Kansas Jayhawks have dominated this conference over the last quarter century, and they are looking to win the Big 12 Championship Game for the 13th time in 26 years. Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns have been to this game seven times, but they have only won the Big 12 Tournament once in their history.

Both teams have an opportunity to claim a No. 1 seed at the NCAA Tournament with a victory, and the Jayhawks could be the overall No. 1 seed with a win.

We will see the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns square off in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday, March 11, 2023, at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Prediction

The Texas Longhorns were the last team to beat the Kansas Jayhawks. Texas hammered Kansas 75-59 in Austin in the regular season finale, but the crowd composition will be much different in Kansas City for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Kansas will have the home crowd at their backs, so that will give the Jayhawks an edge. However, the last 24 hours have been pretty tumultuous for Kansas as Bill Self had to undergo a medical procedure on Friday and starting guard Kevin McCullar Jr. is questionable to play due to back spasms that kept him out for the second half on Friday night.

That has led to the Longhorns being a very short underdog by the college basketball betting odds, and I'll go with the Longhorns given the circumstances.

Best Bet: Texas +1.5
Score Prediction: Texas 75 Kansas 70

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, Mar. 11, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET
Venue: T-Mobile Center
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Matchup
Expert Picks

Big 12 Tournament Odds

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Stats

Kansas Jayhawks
SU: 27-6
ATS: 16-17
O/U: 16-17
PPG: 75.5
OPPG: 67.7

Texas Longhorns
SU: 25-8
ATS: 16-17
O/U: 16-14-3
PPG: 77.9
OPPG: 67.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Kansas Jayhawks Betting Analysis

One of the biggest favorites to win the national championship is Kansas. The defending national champions won it all in 2022, and they have a very good chance to become the first team to repeat since the Florida Gators. However, it's going to be tough for Kansas to win this game. The Jayhawks have a very shallow bench with four players on the court for 30 MPG or more, so McCullar's potential absence is a very big deal with Kansas playing for the third time in three days.

Kansas has an above average offense, but the Jayhawks aren't exceptional in any singular phase. Jalen Wilson has been one of the top players in the Big 12 with 20.0 PPG and 8.5 RPG, and he has scored 22 points or more in nine straight games. Gradey Dick is the second leading scorer with 14.4 PPG, and he is the three-point shooter to watch for the Jayhawks as he is sinking 40.9% of his treys on almost 200 attempts.

The Jayhawks have a very good defense. Kansas ranks 31st in defensive effective field goal percentage even though the Jayhawks are playing in the toughest conference in the country. McCullar and Dajuan Harris rank in the top 65 in steal percentage per Ken Pomeroy, but this is where the potential absence of McCullar would hurt the most. He is arguably Kansas' best defender, and there's a big drop off from him off the bench.

Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

There are only a handful of players that are on the court for long stretches for Texas. That has helped the Longhorns keep fresh legs during the Big 12 Tournament, and that will give them an edge over the Jayhawks in the second half of this game. The only Texas player that is averaging more than 30 MPG is Marcus Carr, but he needs to stay on the court in order to stabilize the Longhorns. Carr leads the team with 15.9 PPG, 4.1 APG, and 1.8 SPG, and he is a solid perimeter shooter.

Texas doesn't have a lot of success from downtown. The Longhorns are only making 34.1% of their three-point attempts, and none of their top shooters are hitting more than 36% of their treys. However, this team comes at you in waves as nine players are averaging at least 12 MPG. No one other than Carr is averaging more than 30 MPG, and that should give Texas an edge here.

The Longhorns are very well-rounded and rank 18th in offense and 12th in defense per Ken Pomeroy. Dylan Disu does a lot in this regard as a big man, and Timmy Allen is able to anchor this team in the paint on both ends. Sir'Jabari Rice does a good job of hitting his free throws, and Tyrese Hunter is a solid defender.