NCAAB: Xavier vs. Texas NCAA Tournament First Four Pick & Prediction

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

College basketball's NCAA Tournament is finally here and it all starts in Dayton, Ohio.

Updated on 1/26/26

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In last night’s action, we saw North Carolina take care of business against San Diego State, while Alabama State won in dramatic fashion.

And for tonight, Sean Miller and the Xavier Musketeers will take on the Texas Longhorns of the SEC. These two teams were seemingly on the bubble for a good majority of the conference portion of the season and found themselves at the right end of the bubble when it mattered most.

Xavier’s resume is a bit bare, but they have some encouraging metrics. Over the past month, Xavier ranks 18th on Bart Torvik’s Power Rating, while Texas ranks 73rd during that same span.

Xavier has a balanced attack with six scorers averaging at least 7 points per game. They are one of the best teams in the nation in defensive rebounding, which bodes really well against Texas.

The Longhorns rely heavily on the offensive glass to generate any offense. But they’ve struggled immensely to score in the half-court. Although Texas is superior in the talent department, led by potential top 5 pick Tre Johnson, Xavier should consistently frustrate Texas throughout the night, who rely heavily on 1-on-1 creation and the midrange for any sort of offense.

Texas has flashed higher upside than this Xavier squad as they generated wins over Texas A&M, Missouri, and Kentucky; however, it still feels like Texas is trending in the wrong direction as they lost eight of their last ten regular season games in a loaded SEC.

In addition, the Musketeers have a significant coaching advantage as Sean Miller bodes a 21-12 record all-time in the NCAA Tournament, while Rodney Terry is sitting on the hot seat.

PICK: XAVIER -2.5

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain