East Carolina Pirates vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Picks, Predictions, Odds
The Cincinnati Bearcats can't afford a loss to the East Carolina Pirates on Friday night if they are going to make their fourth straight appearance in the AAC Championship Game. Cincinnati gets the benefit of home field as East Carolina will have to head to Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio to face the Bearcats on Friday, November 11, 2022, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
East Carolina Pirates vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Prediction
It's been more than two decades since the East Carolina Pirates defeated the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Queen City. Cincinnati has won 10 of the last 11 games in this series, and the Bearcats will look to go out on a high note since they will be moving to the Big 12 next season. This is the best East Carolina team we have seen in eight years though, as Mike Houston has picked this program up off the mat. This would be a huge win for the Pirates, but the Bearcats are just too talented.
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 30, East Carolina 17
Best Bet: Cincinnati -6
East Carolina Pirates vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Odds
More Odds | Futures Odds | CFP Central
East Carolina Pirates vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Resources
Date: Friday, November 11, 2022
Matchup: American
Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Time-TV: ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET
Expert Picks
East Carolina Pirates Betting Analysis
This is one of the better offenses in the AAC with fifth-year senior Holton Ahlers leading the way. Ahlers has started during his entire time in Greenville, giving him more experience than almost any quarterback in the country. He has improved with each year, and he is completing over 70% of his passes for 2,632 yards (8.3 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Ahlers is 0-4 against Cincinnati in his career though with only one solid performance against the Bearcats back in 2019. In that game, Ahlers completed 32 of 52 passes for 535 yards with four touchdowns and an interception as the Pirates lost 46-43. However, Ahlers completed just 36 of 80 passes for 499 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions in his other three starts against the Bearcats. Unsurprisingly, ECU lost those games by a combined 110 points.
Isaiah Winstead and C.J. Johnson have been the top receivers in this offense. Winstead is more of a possession receiver, while Johnson is a big play threat averaging 16.0 YPR with eight touchdowns. Keaton Mitchell has been one of the best running backs in the AAC, running for 863 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 7.1 YPC. Mitchell has been instrumental in ECU's last three wins, running for 430 yards and six TDs in those victories. The Pirates are also one of the best teams in the country at moving the chains on third down, converting 50.4% of those opportunities.
East Carolina is pretty good at stopping the run. The Pirates are allowing 3.7 YPC this season, as their safeties aren't afraid to roll down into the box to make plays. However, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. They are allowing 8.9 YPA and 261.0 YPG through the air. ECU doesn't have a pass rusher that can consistently get to the quarterback, and opposing quarterbacks have been able to hit huge plays on this defense with time.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Analysis
This is a rebuilding year for Cincinnati given how much Luke Fickell and the Bearcats lost to the NFL Draft last spring. However, the Bearcats are still in contention to win the AAC with a 7-2 record in mid-November. They must win this game to stay in the hunt, and then they will host the currently unbeaten in AAC play Tulane Green Wave in their season finale.
The offense isn't as effective as it was last year under Desmond Ridder, but Ben Bryant hasn't done a terrible job after returning to the program following one year as the starting quarterback for Eastern Michigan. Bryant is completing 63.3% of his passes for 2,358 yards (7.9 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. He isn't the same mobile threat as Ridder, and that has led to this offense taking a hit.
Charles McClelland is the top running back in this offense, running for 727 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.4 YPC. Tyler Scott and Tre Tucker are the two big receiving threats, and they will be the keys to victory for the Bearcats in this game. If they (and especially Scott) can beat this secondary over the top, the Bearcats should be able to pick up the win.
Cincinnati has a very good defense once again. The Bearcats rank in the top 20 in Defensive SP+ even though they lost six starters from last year's defense to the NFL. They are allowing just 4.2 yards per play, and both the run defense and pass defense rank in the top 15 in the nation. Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. leads the Bearcats with 96 tackles and eight sacks and should be a First Team All-AAC selection, while safety Ja'quan Sheppard has seven passes defensed. Few teams get to the quarterback more often than Cincinnati, as the Bearcats have 32 sacks in nine games.