Weekly Total Talk

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

Under Up
The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals will do battle at Busch Stadium II, and the 'under' looks like a tremendous play. The under has cashed in six of the past seven meetings in St. Louis between these National League Central combatants. For St. Louis, the under is 3-1-1 in their past five home games, and 5-2 in their past seven overall. While the over has hit in seven of the past 10 starts by Miles Mikolas, the under is an impressive 8-3 in his past 11 starts at home. The under has also going an impressive 18-7-2 in the past 27 for the Cardinals at home against teams with a losing record, and 4-0-1 in their past five at home against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher. 

As far as the Bucs are concerned, the under is 3-1-1 in the past five starts by Trevor Williams against the Cards. The under is 11-3 in his past 14 road outings, too, while going 13-3-1 in the past 17 starts inside the National League Central for Williams. The under is also 33-16-2 in his past 51 starts, while going 19-6-1 in his past 26 starts against a team with a winning record. While the over is 4-0 in the past four road games for the Pirates, the under is 10-4 in their past 14 games overall and 8-3 in their past 11 games against a team with a winning overall record. The under is also 7-3 in the past 10 vs. RHP.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday, Aug. 29
The Rays and Braves continue their interleague series, and LHP Sean Newcomb will take the ball for the home team. The Rays have seen the under cash in eight of their past nine road games, while going 7-1-1 in their past nine on the road vs. LHP. In addition, the under is an impressive 20-5-1 in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning overall record. The under is 19-6-3 in their past 28 games overall against southpaws, too. For the Braves, the under is 4-0 in their past four home games vs. RHP, and 11-1 in the past 12 overall against righties. The under is 19-7 in Atlanta's past 26 at home against a team with a winning record, too, although the over is 4-1 in Newcomb's past five interleague starts and 8-2 in his past 10 starts following a quality start in his most recent appearance. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this interleague series.

The Blue Jays and Orioles will battle at Camden Yards after a high-scoring battle on Tuesday night. LHP Ryan Borucki will take the ball against the disappointing RHP Alex Cobb. The over has been the play lately for the lefty rookie Borucki, hitting in each of his past five on the road and five of the past six starts overall. The over is also 11-4 in Toronto's past 15 on the road against a right-handed starter, while going 13-5 in their past 18 games on the road. For the O's, the under is 11-4-1 in the past 16 games overall, and 5-2 in the past seven vs. LHP. The under is 6-2 in the past eight starts overall for the O's, while going 5-2 in the past seven at home. In this series, the under is 16-5-1 in the past 22 meetings at Oriole Park, and 36-16-1 in the past 53 overall in this series.

It's a battle of southpaws as Dodgers LHP Alex Wood and Rangers LHP Mike Minor square off at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The under has cashed in four straight starts by Wood, while the under is 5-1 in the past six road games for Los Angeles against a team with a losing home record. However, the over is 7-3 in their past 10 interleague road games against a left-handed stater and 6-2 in Wood's past eight road starts against a team with a losing overall mark. The under has ruled for Texas lately, going 4-1 in their past five overall, 3-0-1 in the past four interleague home outings and 6-1-1 in the past eight interleague home outings vs. LHP. The under is 5-1 in Minor's past six home outings, and 9-3-1 in his past 13 overall.

The Diamondbacks roll out RHP Zack Godley for the NL West battle against the Giants and rookie RHP Dereck Rodriguez. The under is 8-1 in Arizona's past nine road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-2-1 in their past nine vs. RHP. However, the over is 5-2 in Godley's past seven overall, and 5-2 in his past seven inside the division. The over is also 7-0-1 in the past eight road outings by Godley against a team with a losing record. For the Giants, the under is 5-0-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the past six at home. The under is also 18-6-2 in the past 26 inside the division for the Giants. The under is 7-2 in the past nine starts for Rodriguez, too. In this series, the under is 22-10-1 in the past 33 in San Francisco.

Betting On The Wind
Precipitation is not in the forecast at any of the Major League Baseball venues on Hump Day, so enjoy the weather-free day. There will be winds from 11-14 mph blowing left to right at Petco Park affecting the Mariners and Padres, however. The Marlins and Red Sox will also see a jetstream from 10-13 mph blowing out. The Dodgers and Rangers will experience winds from 11-14 mph blowing into the face of the batters.

Thursday, Aug. 30
Indians RHP Mike Clevinger will host the Twins in the afternoon series finale. The under is 2-1-1 in his past four starts at home, including his last outing against the Twins back on Aug. 8 at Progressive Field. He allowed one earned run, five hits and one walks while striking out five over seven innings in that no-decision, a 5-2 win by the Tribe. The Twins counter with RHP Jake Odorizzi, and the under has connected in each of his past four outings, including that same Aug. 8 matchup with Clevinger in Cleveland. Odorizzi has allowed a total of just 23 earned runs over his past 49 innings across 10 starts.

White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito has a 5.85 ERA over all this season, but he has won 10 games and picked up the pace lately. The over has connected in each of his past three outings at home, and he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings across the past two. It might not get any easier against the first-place Red Sox on Thursday evening.

Padres LHP Clayton Richard will work against the Colorado Rockies on Thursday night at Petco Park. The over is an impressive 7-1 over his past eight starts, and 4-1 over his past five outings at home. The over is 1-0-1 in Richard's two starts this season against the Rockies. 

Friday, Aug. 31
The Yankees will use ace RHP Luis Severino in their series opener against the Tigers and Jordan Zimmermann. Surprisingly, the over is 9-2 in the past 11 starts by Severino, including 4-0 in his past four outings at Yankee Stadium. He faced the Tigers on June 4 in Detroit in a 7-4 win as the over also connected in that one. The over is also 5-0 in Severino's five outings against American League Central foes this season.

Marlins RHP Dan Straily will take the ball to face the Blue Jays in interleague action. Straily allowed just three hits and a walk with four strikeouts over six scoreless innings in a 1-0 win against the Braves in his most recent start at Marlins Park, and the under as cashed in each of his past two starts at home with three runs and seven hits allowed in 10 2/3 innings.

Mets RHP Zack Wheeler will face the Giants in late-night action. He has really worked down his ERA lately, cruising along with a 3.46 ERA through 153 1/3 innings. The under is 4-2 over his past six outings, including a strong outing on Aug. 20 against the Giants at Citi Field. He allowed just one earned run, five hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts over seven innings in the no-decision, a 2-1 loss. The over has connected in five of his past seven starts on the road.

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