Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for Friday May 22
With the start of Memorial Day weekend, we have a full slate of seven "Breakfast Baseball" games this Friday morning in Taiwan (CPBL) and South Korea (KBO).
You might not be able to go to the beach this year, or a barbeque, but at least you have live baseball if you are an early riser. In my debut for VegasInsider.com for Tuesday’s Breakfast Baseball slate, my 4 picks went 4-0 for a 3.77 unit profit.
For Friday mornings slate, my Five Best Bets are focused on two CPBL moneyline underdogs, a CPBL run-line and two KBO team totals.
Friday, May 22, 2020
CPBL - Taiwan
- Games: 2
- Time: 6:35 a.m. ET
- Watch: LIVENow, Twitter
Fubon Guardians (+105) at CTBC Brothers (-137)
Uni-President 7/11 Lions (+270) at Rakuten Monkeys (-400)
KBO - South Korea
KT Wiz (-105) at LG Twins (-125)
Kiwoom Heroes (-154) at Lotte Giants (+120)
Hanwha Eagles (-105) at NC Dinos (-125)
Kia Tigers (-212) at Sk Wyverns (+163)
Doosan Bears (-154) at Samsung Lions (+120)
Friday's Baseball Pick of the Day
Uni-President 7/11 Lions Moneyline +270 (FoxBet)
Uni-President 7/11 Lions Run-Line +4.5 -175 (FoxBet)
For my Breakfast Baseball pick of the day, I am betting on the Uni-President 7/11 Lions against the Ratuken Monkeys. I am betting on the Uni-Lions to win outright, as well as for them to either win or lose by fewer than 4.5 runs.
In the CPBL, the Ratuken Monkeys have the best record at 16-6 of all four teams, while their opponent the Uni-Lions have the worst record at 10-16. Not only do the Ratuken Monkeys have the best record in the league, but they are the only team with a winning record. Based on Ratuken’s dominance, they have been overvalued by the betting public for the last two weeks. However, upon further inspection, the evidence is overwhelming for recommending a Uni-Lions Moneyline wager at such a large price.
While Ratuken has a winning percentage of 72.7%, their Pythagorean winning percentage is only 64.2%. The difference in Ratuken’s winning percentage and Pythagorean winning percentage suggests that eventually Ratuken will revert to the mean as they are not truly as good as their record suggests.
Ratuken also has the worst bullpen in the CPBL. Based on this, the Uni-Lions are in a good spot for tomorrow’s game because Ratuken’s starting pitcher for tomorrow is also overperforming as well and Ratuken might have to rely more on their awful bullpen to win this game. Ratuken’s staring pitcher Yi-Cheng Wang has a 4-0 record with a 3.12 ERA while the Uni-Lions starting pitcher Logan Darnell formerly of the Minnesota Twins is making his season debut. While Wang has an impressive 3.12 ERA, his FIP is a dreadful 5.86, this implies that his 3.12 ERA is due more to luck than it is to skill.
Based on all of this, my model gives the Uni-Lions a 45.2% chance of winning and that is why I am betting on the Uni-Lions Moneyline at +270 odds (27% implied probability). If you are willing to be patient, you might be able to get the Uni-Lions at a better price. I am also betting on a Uni-Lions run-line of +4.5 run-line at a -175 vigorish.
CPBL Underdog to Back
Fubon Guardians Moneyline +110 (FoxBet)
The Fubon Guardians are only a slightly worse team than their opponent the CTBC Brothers. The Guardians currently have a 10-13 record while the Brothers have a 12-13 record. While both teams are tied in the all-important loss column, the Brothers have a 54.1% Pythagorean winning percentage suggesting that they will soon be a winning team. However, despite the Brothers being a better team, for tomorrow’s game my model gives the Guardians a 62.3% chance of winning and this is largely due to the difference in starting pitching between the two teams.
The Guardians pitcher is Henry Sosa who is the Clayton Kershaw of the CPBL. In 2019, Sosa had a 1.56 ERA, a 2.95 FIP, and the 4th best WAR among CPBL pitchers despite only playing half of the CPBL season. Sosa played the other half of 2019 in the KBO against tougher competition where he excelled with a 3.82 ERA. After an incredible 2019 season Sosa has regressed, but not nearly as bad as his record would indicate. While Sosa has a dreadful ERA of 6.83, his FIP is a much lower 4.64. I expect Sosa to have a strong performance in tomorrow’s game and I will be betting on the Guardians to win outright at +110 Moneyline odds (47.6% implied probability).
Friday's Team Totals to Bet
Hanwha Eagles Over 3.5 Runs (-148) (Draftkings)
Doosan Bears Under 6.5 Runs (-137) (Draftkings)
While the total runs scored in a game by both teams is one of the most popular types of baseball bets, the run totals for all of tomorrow’s KBO games are efficiently set. Despite the run totals being efficient, most the team totals for tomorrow are surprisingly inefficient. A strategy that I have been using frequently in the KBO this season is to bet the over on the team totals for underdog offenses that are undervalued and the under on the team totals for favorites whose offenses is overvalued.
My model projects the Doosan Bears who are the 2019 league champions to clobber the Samsung Lions who are in my opinion the worst team in the league. Despite this, betting on Doosan to score fewer than 6.5 runs is a great bet because my model projects them to score only 5.25 runs. For any team to score 7 or more runs, something must go horribly wrong for one team and miraculously right for the other.
I am also betting on the Hanwha Eagles to score over 3.5 runs. Hanwha plays the NC Dinos who have Young-Gyu Kim starting for them. While Young-Gyu Kim has started off the season with a 3.27 ERA, last year he had an ERA of 5.29. For Hanwha to score fewer than 3.5 runs, Kim has to pitch another great game and the bullpen has to do their job. My model predicts Hanwha to score 4.94 runs. There is an exceptionally good chance that the Hanwha run total will increase from 3.5 before tomorrow’s 5:30 am game.
Best Bets Tracker
- Uni-President 7/11 Lions Moneyline +270 (FoxBet)
- Uni-President 7/11 Lions Run-Line +4.5 -175 (FoxBet)
- Fubon Guardians Moneyline +110 (FoxBet)
- Hanwha Eagles Over 3.5 Runs (-148) (Draftkings)
- Doosan Bears Under 6.5 Runs (-137) (Draftkings)
Record: 4-0, +3.77 Units, +94.2% ROI