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Last Updated Oct 04, 2021, 18:00 PM

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds, Preview


October 5, 2021
Jonathan Willis
MLB Expert
VegasInsider.com

Baseball couldn’t have asked for a better start to the postseason. The two biggest rivals in the sport will meet in a winner-take-all Wild Card game on Tuesday night when the Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. We weren’t able to get the chaos of multiple Game 163s after both teams won on Sunday, but this was the next best result.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions

The Yankees have won six straight games against the Red Sox. The Bronx Bombers swept Boston at Fenway Park the last weekend of September and also brought out the brooms at home in mid-August.

Gerrit Cole will make it seven in a row in a relatively low-scoring game on Tuesday. The Red Sox haven’t scored more than three runs against the Yankees in any of their last six games, and they won’t find it easy to beat New York’s ace.

These teams have met 16 times since June 6. The under has cashed in 12 of those games, and there were eight or less runs in 10 of those meetings.

Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2

Best Bet: NYY ML

Best Bet: Under 8.5

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Game Odds


New York has seen the 'Inning 1 Run Total' go OVER in four straight games when playing at night. (AP)

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AL East
  • Date: Tuesday, October 5, 2021
  • Venue: Fenway Park
  • Location: Boston, Massachusetts
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 8:00 p.m. ET



Inside the Stats - New York Yankees

  • Record: 92-70
  • Run Line: 76-86
  • O/U: 69-88-5
  • Runs: 711 (19th)
  • Batting Average: .237 (23rd)
  • On Base Percentage: .322 (9th)
  • ERA: 3.74 (6th)
  • WHIP: 1.21 (6th)

Inside the Stats - Boston Red Sox

  • Record: 92-70
  • Run Line: 85-77
  • O/U: 74-84-4
  • Runs: 829 (5th)
  • Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
  • On Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
  • ERA: 4.26 (15th)
  • WHIP: 1.38 (23rd)

Key Players to Watch

  • NYY: Aaron Judge - OF (.287 avg, 39 HR, 98 RBIs)
  • NYY: Giancarlo Stanton - DH (.273 avg, 35 HRs, 97 RBIs)
  • BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS (.295 avg, 23 HR, 79 RBIs)
  • BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B (.279 avg, 38 HR, 113 RBIs)

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Probable Pitchers

NYY: Gerrit Cole - RHP (16-8, 3.23 ERA, 243 Ks, 1.06 WHIP)

BOS: Nathan Eovaldi - RHP (11-9, 3.75 ERA, 195 Ks, 1.19 WHIP)


Nathan Eovaldi will get the start for Boston on Tuesday night, striking out seven batters with zero earned runs in his last outing. (AP)

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Analysis

Games like this are why the New York Yankees made Cole the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history. Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract with New York in December 2019. He is 23-11 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his 42 starts with the team.

Unfortunately, Cole hasn’t been great in his four starts against the Red Sox in 2021. He is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA in 22 innings of work, and he has given up five home runs to Boston.

The Yankees have looked better on offense since acquiring Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo at the trade deadline. The two sluggers gave New York much needed left-handed hitting, but neither player has been exceptional.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

  • New York has trailed after three innings in three of its last four games when playing as the favorite.
  • Boston has gone UNDER the run total in seven of its last eight games.
  • New York has covered the run line in five straight games when facing Boston.
  • The run total has gone UNDER in four of the last five games between both clubs.
  • Boston has won the first tinning in three of its last four home games when playing as the underdog.
  • New York has won 12 straight games when playing at night after winning at home the game prior.
  • New York has won five straight games when facing Boston.


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